Universal laws and architecture: Challenges for Sustainable Infrastructure

1. Universal laws and architecture:Challenges for Sustainable Infrastructure John Doyle John G Braun Professor Control and Dynamical Systems, EE, BioE Caltech

2. “Universal laws and architectures?” • Universal “conservation laws” (constraints) • Universal architectures (constraints that deconstrain) • Mention recent papers* • Focus on broader context not in papers • Lots of theorems • Case studies: evolution, physiology, bacterial biosphere, , glycolytic oscillations, Internet/IT, neuroscience, smartgrid, aerospace, wildfire ecology, turbulence, stat mech, earthquakes, heart rate variability *try to get you to read them?

3. Collaborators and contributors(partial list, out of date,…) Theory:Parrilo, Carlson, Murray,Vinnicombe, Paganini, Papachristodoulou, Prajna, Goncalves, Fazel, Liu,Lall, D’Andrea, Jadbabaie,Dahleh, Martins, Recht,many more current and former students, … Biology:Chandra, Buzi, Csete,Yi, El-Samad, Khammash, Tanaka, Arkin, Savageau, Simon, Gross, Kitano, Hucka, Gillespie, Petzold, F Doyle, Stelling, Caporale,… Web/Internet: Chen, Low, Lavaei, Sojoudi, Li, Alderson, Willinger,Kelly, Zhu,Yu, Wang, Chandy, Trossen, Griffin,… Turbulence:Gayme, McKeon, Bamieh, Bobba, Gharib,Marsden, … Physics:Sandberg, Delvenne, Barahona, Carlson, Asimakopoulos, Matni,… Disturbance ecology: Moritz, Carlson,… Neuroscience: Lamperski, Grafton, Gazzaniga, Mitra,… Current Caltech Former Caltech Longterm Visitor Other

4. Thanks to • NSF • ARO • ONR • Braun family • Lee Center for Advanced Networking (Caltech) • Philips • NIH/NIGMS? AFOSR? DARPA? • Special thanks to Hiroaki Kitano (ERATO)

5. Happy families are all alike; every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way. Leo Tolstoy, Anna Karenina, Chapter 1, first line • What does this even mean? • Given incredible diversity of people and environments? • It has to be a statement about organization. • Happy family = empathy + cooperation + simple rules? • Constraints on components and architecture

6. Happy families are all alike; every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way. Are robust, efficient systems/architectures “all alike”? fragile Want robust and efficient systems and architectures robust efficient wasteful

7. Requirements on systems and architectures dependable deployable discoverable distributable durable effective efficient evolvable extensible failure transparent fault-tolerant fidelity flexible inspectable installable Integrity interchangeable interoperable learnable maintainable manageable mobile modifiable modular nomadic operable orthogonality portable precision predictable producible provable recoverable relevant reliable repeatable reproducible resilient responsive reusable robust safety scalable seamless self-sustainable serviceable supportable securable simplicity stable standards compliant survivable sustainable tailorable testable timely traceable ubiquitous understandable upgradable usable accessible accountable accurate adaptable administrable affordable auditable autonomy available credible process capable compatible composable configurable correctness customizable debugable degradable determinable demonstrable happy?

8. Requirements on systems and architectures dependable deployable discoverable distributable durable effective efficient evolvable extensible failure transparent fault-tolerant fidelity flexible inspectable installable Integrity interchangeable interoperable learnable maintainable manageable mobile modifiable modular nomadic operable orthogonality portable precision predictable producible provable recoverable relevant reliable repeatable reproducible resilient responsive reusable robust safety scalable seamless self-sustainable serviceable supportable securable simplicity stable standards compliant survivable sustainable tailorable testable timely traceable ubiquitous understandable upgradable usable accessible accountable accurate adaptable administrable affordable auditable autonomy available credible process capable compatible composable configurable correctness customizable debugable degradable determinable demonstrable happy?

9. Requirements on systems and architectures dependable deployable discoverable distributable durable effective efficient evolvable extensible failure transparent fault-tolerant fidelity flexible inspectable installable Integrity interchangeable interoperable learnable maintainable manageable mobile modifiable modular nomadic operable orthogonality portable precision predictable producible provable recoverable relevant reliable repeatable reproducible resilient responsive reusable robust safety scalable seamless self-sustainable serviceable supportable securable simplicity stable standards compliant survivable sustainable tailorable testable timely traceable ubiquitous understandable upgradable usable accessible accountable accurate adaptable administrable affordable auditable autonomy available credible process capable compatible composable configurable correctness customizable debugable degradable determinable demonstrable fragile robust wasteful efficient

10. Happy families are all alike; every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way. In what sense are robust, efficient systems/architectures all alike? fragile Want robust and efficient systems and architectures robust efficient wasteful

11. feet skeleton muscle skin gut hands weak fragile Human evolution Apes Biology strong robust efficient (slow) inefficient wasteful

12. weak fragile Architecture? Apes Hard tradeoffs? Biology strong robust efficient (slow) inefficient wasteful

13. weak fragile sticks stones fire Biology strong robust +Technology efficient (slow) inefficient wasteful

14. ++Technology weak fragile Biology strong robust +Technology efficient (slow) inefficient wasteful

15. Constraints (that deconstrain) fragile Architecture? robust Hard tradeoffs? wasteful efficient

16. fragile Next 3 speakers robust wasteful efficient

19. Human complexity? feet skeleton muscle skin gut hands fragile sticks stones fire Biology robust +Technology wasteful efficient

20. Robust Human complexity Fragile • Metabolism • Regeneration & repair • Healing wound /infect • Obesity, diabetes • Cancer • AutoImmune/Inflame Start with physiology Lots of triage

21. Robust Mechanism? Fragile • Metabolism • Regeneration & repair • Healing wound /infect • Fat accumulation • Insulin resistance • Proliferation • Inflammation • Obesity, diabetes • Cancer • AutoImmune/Inflame • Fat accumulation • Insulin resistance • Proliferation • Inflammation

22. Robust What’s the difference? Fragile • Metabolism • Regeneration & repair • Healing wound /infect • Obesity, diabetes • Cancer • AutoImmune/Inflame • Fat accumulation • Insulin resistance • Proliferation • Inflammation Controlled Dynamic Uncontrolled Chronic

23. Fat accumulation • Insulin resistance • Proliferation • Inflammation Death Controlled Dynamic Uncontrolled Chronic Low mean High variability High mean Low variability

24. Robust Restoring robustness? Fragile • Metabolism • Regeneration & repair • Healing wound /infect • Obesity, diabetes • Cancer • AutoImmune/Inflame • Fat accumulation • Insulin resistance • Proliferation • Inflammation • Fat accumulation • Insulin resistance • Proliferation • Inflammation Controlled Dynamic Uncontrolled Chronic Low mean High variability High mean Low variability

25. Fragile Robust • Metabolism • Regeneration & repair • Healing wound /infect • Obesity, diabetes • Cancer • AutoImmune/Inflame • Fat accumulation • Insulin resistance • Proliferation • Inflammation • Fragility  Hijacking, side effects, unintended… • Of mechanisms evolved for robustness • Complexity  control, robust/fragile tradeoffs • Math: robust/fragile constraints (“conservation laws”) Both Accident or necessity?

26. Human complexity? fragile robust wasteful efficient

27. Robust Human complexity Yet Fragile • Metabolism • Regeneration & repair • Immune/inflammation • Microbe symbionts • Neuro-endocrine • Complex societies • Advanced technologies • Risk “management” • Obesity, diabetes • Cancer • AutoImmune/Inflame • Parasites, infection • Addiction, psychosis,… • Epidemics, war,… • Disasters, global &!%$# • Obfuscate, amplify,… Accident or necessity?

28. In the real (vs virtual) world What matters: • Action What doesn’t: • Data • Information • Computation • Learning • Decision • …

29. Don’t worry ... • “Like, dude, like, chill…” • “There’s an app for that.” • “The ‘new sciences’ of …” • “There’s a gene… • “The market will...” • “Order for free…” • “The rapture is near.”

30. Don’t worry ... • “Like, dude, like, chill…” • “There’s an app for that.” • “The ‘new sciences’ of …” • “There’s a gene… • “The market will...” • “Order for free…” • “The rapture is near.” Come back to this later

31. IEEE TRANS ON SYSTEMS, MAN, AND CYBERNETICS, JULY 2010, Alderson and Doyle

32. Csete and Doyle

33. The dangers of naïve biomemetics Feathers and flapping? Or lift, drag, propulsion, and control?

34. Getting it (W)right, 1901 • “We know how to construct airplanes...” (lift and drag) • “… also know how to build engines.” (propulsion) • “Inability to balance and steer still confronts students of the flying problem.” (control) • “When this one feature has been worked out, the age of flying will have arrived, for all other difficulties are of minor importance.” Wilbur Wright on Control, 1901

35. Getting it right,2011 • “...know how to construct sustainable infrastructures...” • “… also know how to build their components.” • “Inability to control and manage fragilities ....” • “When this one feature has been worked out, the age of sustainability will have arrived, for all other difficulties are of minor importance.” • Fragilities? • Unintended crashes, hijacking, parasitism, evolution • Need robust, efficient, evolvable architectures • Policy trumps technology (next talks) • Aligning incentives (next talks)

36. fragile Hard tradeoffs? robust wasteful efficient

37. Chandra, Buzi, and Doyle

38. Theorem! Fragility simple enzyme complex enzyme Metabolic Overhead

39. Glycolytic “circuit” and oscillations • Perfect circuit case study • Every cell (1030), heavily studied • Experiments, models, simulation, …, all “well-known” • Oscillations? • Remain persistent mystery (decades,…?) • Frozen accident? Edge of chaos? Emergulence? • New insight: constraints and tradeoffs • “Universal” robustness/efficiency tradeoff • Evolution + physiology + “CDS” theory • Issues & theory: broadly relevant and “universal” • Extreme responses typical ubiquitous

40. Glycolytic “circuit” and oscillations • End of an old story (why oscillations) • no purpose per se • side effect of hard robustness/efficiency tradeoffs • just needed a theorem • Beginning of a new one • robustness/efficiency tradeoffs • complexity and architecture • need more theorems and applications

41. Robust=maintain energy level w/fluctuating demand Efficient=minimize metabolic overhead fragile Want robust and efficient Tradeoffs? Hard limit robust efficient wasteful

42. Control, OR Comms Kalman Pontryagin Shannon Bode Nash Theory? Deep, but fragmented, incoherent, incomplete Von Neumann Carnot Boltzmann Turing Godel Heisenberg Physics Einstein Compute

43. Control Comms Shannon Bode • Each theory one dimension • Tradeoffs across dimensions • Assume architectures a priori • Progress is encouraging, but… fragile? slow? ? wasteful? Carnot Boltzmann Turing Godel Heisenberg Physics Compute Einstein

44. When will steam engines be 200% efficient? 100% Exponential improvement 10% 1% .1% Note: this is real data! http://phe.rockefeller.edu/Daedalus/Elektron/

45. When will steam engines be 200% efficient? Oops… never. 50% 10% 1% .1% http://phe.rockefeller.edu/Daedalus/Elektron/

46. Technology? fragile At best we get one robust efficient wasteful

47. ??? fragile Often neither robust efficient wasteful

48. ??? Bad architectures? fragile ? gap? Bad theory? ? robust efficient wasteful

49. Conservation “laws”? fragile Case studies Sharpen hard bounds Hard limit wasteful

50. Theorem! z and p functions of enzyme complexity and amount Fragility simple enzyme complex enzyme Overhead