Nominations, Campaigns and Elections . . . The path to the PRESIDENCY Presidential election 2008 and 2012

1. Nominations, Campaigns and Elections . . . The path to the PRESIDENCY Presidential election 2008 and 2012 “Hurtling towards the Presidency”

2. We have a well established two partysystem . . . so the the nomination phase decides which D will run against which R in the general election Rs Ds Guilian, Thomspson, McCain, Gingrich Clinton,Obama, Edwards, Gore Invisible Primary “test the waters” Invisible Primary “test the waters” Nomination Declaration Declaration Campaign to win delegates, state by state Winning the nomination of delegates, state by state Vs Win enough delegates, so everyone knows you will win the nomination Win enough delegates, so everyone knows you will win the nomination Pick a running mate Pick a running mate Official nomination at party convention Official nomination at party convention General Election Rx vs Dy Election Day November 6th 2012 POTUS Obama Announces Reelection Bid For 2012 April 4th

3. There are other parties . . . . . http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2012

4. Step one: the “invisible primary” or the “race before the race before the race” often at least TWO years before the actual election—candidates test the waters

5. So it is 2013. . . . 3 years before 2016 . . . http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2013/09/5-signs-sen-ted-cruz-will-run-for-president-in-2016 /How about the dems?http://ajherrma.hubpages.com/hub/Democratic-Presidential-Candidates-2016

6. The NEXT STEP: OFFICIAL DECLARATION:

7. May 2011 (1.5 years before Nov 2012) Nov 2011

8. (Reuters) –Sept 15 2011 Sarah Palin faces a dilemma. The conservative firebrand could use her electrifying, combative personality to leap into the race to determine the Republican nominee to run for president in 2012. Palin is the only big-name Republican left who could launch a run this late and has said she will make the decision by the end of this month

9. Obama declares himself candidate for re-election April 4 2012

10. One result of the races getting earlier and earlier is . . . Look at how much is being spent: Banking on Becoming President For the first time ever in U.S. history, the candidates for president raised more than $1 billion (2008) And look at 2012: But first some definitions: http://www.opensecrets.org/pacs/pacfaq.php http://www.opensecrets.org/bigpicture/index.php And don’t forget this is not just a presidential election . . .

11. SO after they declare, each of for each party campaign to get the nomination for their party . . .democrats are running against dems, republicans are running against repubs . . . Republican presidential candidates (L-R) Rick Santorum, Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX), Texas Gov. Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN), and Jon Huntsman listen to the national anthem prior to a debate at Constitution Hall November 22, 2011 in Washington, DC. (Win McNamee/Getty Images North America)

14. Because ultimately you want to be the guy or gal who wins the race http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2012/03/gop_delegate_race_an_animation_of_the_2012_republican_nomination_fight_as_a_horse_race_.html http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2012/primaries.html

15. But because we have a federalist system, this duking it out is complicated what they are racing towards is to be the winner of a majority of delegate votes at the party’s convention the summer before the general election . . . The delegates come from the states . . With each state having a certain number and each party picking its delegates differently http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/ http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/R-Del.phtml http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/D-Del.phtml Take a look at details if you are that type: http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/R-Alloc.phtml http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/D-Alloc.phtml

16. So now you see . . . Candidates for each party are vying to win the delegates of each state so that they get more than the next guy, and win 50% of all delegate votes so they can win the nomination. The parties have decided how many delegate votes will come from each state. So how do the people in the state designate to whom they want delegates vote to go for? dems in Washington for example—had 97 delegate votes—how to decide who gets them? Hilary? Or John? Or Barak? Or?? And Repubs had 40 votes in Washington—who gets them? Mitt? Or Mike Or John?

17. There are two basic ways that delegate votes are determined: Either by the caucus and convention method . . . Or the primary method States differ (and parties within the states differ) See http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/events.phtml?s=c&f=m Remember. . . The point is to win the delegates in each state as have already been determined

18. Very few states use the caucus method, which requires much more participation and commitment— It starts with what are essentially small meetings in districts in every county—the people at those meetings pick delegates for the nominee they want, then those delegates go to another meeting with other delegates and that meeting does the same thing and so on, until you get to the state level local caucusesdistrict conventionstate conventionnational convention. . . Like a: The Iowa caucus is first See: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=racTAiemEQU

19. Most states use primaries. . . Which are just elections where voters (eligibility varies depending on whether it is an open or closed primary) designate their choice for the nominee—they are similar to the primaries for House and Senate races but they are indirect, because they don’t necessarily determine who the nominee will be, but just who the state wants.

20. The rise of the primary is one of the most significant changes in history—not only are there more, but they are becoming more significant

21. If this is the turnout in primaries, imagine what it is in caucuses!

22. So there the people in the states are, selecting their preferences for the candidacy . . . And racing to be early so that they impact the process See http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/events.phtml?s=c You don’t want to be at the end . . . So they fight to move them up . . . Leading to another great change:

25. Another vocab term The ten Super tuesday states Super Tuesday commonly refers to a Tuesday in early March of a presidential election year (march 2, 2004, March 7 2000) . It is the day when the most states simultaneously hold their primary elections, and the single day when the most nominating delegates can be won.. This term began in 1988, when many southern states decided to hold their primaries on the same day to try to boost their political importance (in relation to the importance of the New Hampshire primary and Iowa caucuses).

26. What happens if as state holds a primary earlier than Iowa and NH? The Democratic National Committee’s rules and bylaws committee, convened by a co-chairwoman, Alexis Herman, voted Aug. 25 to punish Florida for setting a Jan. 29 primary date . For Repubs click here and see the sanctions part http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/R-Alloc.phtml

27. Forewarned but Angry, Florida Democrats Weigh Primary Penalty MIAMI, Sept. 8 — The anger coursing lately through Democratic circles in Florida feels unlike any since the presidential recount of 2000. This time, though, the object of wrath is the Democratic National Committee, which voted last month to punish Florida harshly for moving up its presidential primary to January. Under pressure from the four states permitted to hold contests that month, many Democratic candidates have pledged not to campaign in Florida and other states that break party rules. Barring a compromise, none of Florida’s delegates can be seated at next summer’s party convention, which means the state Democratic primary will essentially count for nothing. Florida Democrats are calling it a cruel irony, not least because their party has worked doggedly to restore public confidence in the electoral process since 2000. . . . Under the rules of both national parties, no state can hold a presidential primary or caucus earlier than Feb. 5 without the party’s permission. Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina are the only states that have it. Nonetheless, the Florida Legislature voted in May to schedule primaries for Jan. 29, saying the populous and diverse swing state deserved a more prominent role in choosing presidential nominees.In recent years, Florida’s primaries have taken place in March, by which time the nominee is clear. The change was pushed through by Republicans, who hold a majority in both houses of the Legislature and will suffer less serious penalties. Under Republican National Committee rules, Florida will lose half its delegates to the Republican convention. While their party had more to lose, Democratic state lawmakers joined Republicans in voting to move up the primary — a decision for which some fellow Democrats are now chiding them.

28. Ok so delegates are selected . . . using either a primary or caucus But what’s a delegate? And how are they selected? http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/02/delegate.explainer/index.html

29. Does more democratic mean better? • Criticisms of the primary and caucus process • Too much attention paid to early states • Money plays too big of a role • Low turnout makes process unrepresentative • Too much power is given to the media • Possible alternatives? • National or regional primary.

31. In 2008 . . . .McCain became the “presumptive ________ “ by Feb 9th http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#val=R

32. RNC officially names Mitt Romney the party's 'presumptive nominee' April 25, 2012

33. Same in 2004: March 11, 2004 it was all over . . . See http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/primaries/pages/scorecard/

34. But for dems of course, in 2008 the battle raged on . . .

35. Benefiting McCain . . .

36. Obama Clinches Nomination; First Black Candidate to Lead a Major Party Ticket Senator Barack Obama with his wife, Michelle, in St. Paul June 4, 2008 Senator Barack Obama claimed the Democratic presidential nomination on Tuesday evening, prevailing through an epic battle with Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton in a primary campaign that inspired millions of voters from every corner of America to demand change in Washington.

37. June 3, 2008 On Day of Last Primary, Obama's Superdelegate Surge

38. Next big event in the process: pick a running mate

41. It’s all a strategy . . . . . Up until midweek last week, some 48 to 72 hours before Mr. McCain introduced Ms. Palin at a Friday rally in Dayton, Ohio, Mr. McCain was still holding out the hope that he could choose a good friend, Senator Lieberman independent of Connecticut, a Republican close to the campaign said. Mr. McCain had also been interested in another favorite, former Gov. Tom Ridge f Pennsylvania. But both men favor abortion rights, anathema to the Christian conservatives who make up a crucial base of the Republican Party As word leaked out that Mr. McCain was seriously considering the men, the campaign was bombarded by outrage from influential conservatives who predicted an explosive floor fight at the convention and vowed rejection of Mr. Ridge or Mr. Lieberman by the delegates. Perhaps more important, several Republicans said, Mr. McCain was getting advice that if he did not do something to shake up the race, his campaign would be stuck on a potentially losing trajectory. With time running out — and as Mr. McCain discarded two safer choices, Gov. Pawlenty of Minnesota and former Gov.Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, as too predictable — he turned to Ms. Palin. He had his first face-to-face interview with her on Thursday and offered her the job moments later.

44. Senator Kerry selects Senator John Edwards as his Running Mate 6 July 2004 The emphasis here is “ticket balancing”

45. Wall Street Journal POLITICS Updated August 12, 2012, 12:41 a.m. ET Romney Picks Ryan as Vice-Presidential Running Mate NORFOLK, Va.—Mitt Romney picked Rep. Paul Ryan as his running mate, a decision that could spark enthusiasm for the Republican ticket among conservatives and all but ensures the election will turn to deep philosophical divisions between the two parties over spending, taxes and entitlements. In Mr. Ryan, 42 years old, the Romney campaign gets a conservative who has spent recent years at the center of national debates about the size and scope of the federal government. With his proposals to revamp entitlement programs for future retirees and the poor, he has become a hero to conservatives and a target for liberals.

46. 10inShare • Print • Email • More sharing Reddit StumbleUpon Delicious Romney's pick of Ryan as his running mate energizes conservatives, opponents From the CNN Political Unit updated 10:42 PM EDT, Sun August 12, 2012 See images: http://www.cnn.com/2012/08/11/politics/romney-ryan/index.html

47. And then the next event(s) : Party Conventions: The 2012 Republican National Convention: Tampa Bay Florida: late August 2012 See slide show: http://www.upi.com/News_Photos/News/Republican-National-Convention/7006/#!/3/ .

48. Notice where the conventions are held: http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/electoral-map

49. Members of the Texas delegation on Tuesday

50. 57 55 26 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 27 24 29 52 112 28 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 53 25 54 84 83 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 113 > >> 56 86 110 111 85 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 82 96 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 97 Romney officially clinches nomination at condensed GOP convention By Tom Cohen, CNN updated 11:30 PM EDT, Tue August 28, 2012 From VOA: Although there was no suspense about the outcome, Republicans went ahead with the traditional roll call of the states that assured Mitt Romney of the presidential nomination and a showdown with President Barack Obama in the November election.