1 / 15

SubSaharan Africa and Southeast Asia in the American Age

SubSaharan Africa and Southeast Asia in the American Age. A Fast Review China After the Peak Africa, Australia and Southeast Asia. Peter Zeihan Association of American Manufacturers November 5. Transport and the United States. 400 2,000 4,000 60,000. Evolving Demography.

aimee
Télécharger la présentation

SubSaharan Africa and Southeast Asia in the American Age

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. SubSaharan Africaand Southeast Asia in the American Age • A Fast Review • China After the Peak • Africa, Australia and Southeast Asia Peter Zeihan Association of American Manufacturers November 5

  2. Transport and the United States 400 2,000 4,000 60,000

  3. Evolving Demography

  4. The First Chinese Problem: Unity Northern consolidation difficult; Yellow River unnavigable Beijing is the political/military capital Yangtze is navigable Shanghai is the economic capital South has good ports, but (sub)tropical Greatly retards northern control Encourages foreign presence

  5. The Second Chinese Problem: The Limits of Bribery Country requires social binding agent Private capital pooled, then funneled at sub-market rates Maximize employment by large firm size, market share and throughput at the cost of debt and profitability Subsidizes inputs and outputs

  6. The Third Chinese Problem: Nationwide Subprime ?

  7. Three Thoughts on China Development limitations Inflation/Deflation Timing Matters Now not so bad 2015-2019: European consumption collapses and developed world demographics flip • Inland China is the only inland Asia • International credit up • Commodities down • Manufactured goods up

  8. The China Wars

  9. The African Geography • Land of plateaus • Extremely limited infra • Only Chinese demand justifies most development • Two (competing) exceptions

  10. Ninja Assistance to the other Congo South Africa v Angola Militant Proxies to Zaire/Congo • Mining and apartheid infrastructure • 25 years later… • The Angolan challenge • Oil, Benguela and … Ninjas Bombed Zambia Ninja Assistance to Zimbabwe Coup In Namibia

  11. The Australian Geography • Problematic geography • Growth markets likely to tank… • …but only non-US geography that can implement shale quickly • And close to…

  12. The Southeast Asian Geography • China debris (economic and strategic) • Powerful growth base effect • Strong U.S. alignments • All-urban polities • Isolated population/ industrial hubs

  13. Two Parting Thoughts The Biggest Deltas The New Trade Triangle US consumption Oz resources SEAsianmanufacturing • Indonesia • 200+ million pop, half in one place • Singapore money, Malaysia middle-manufacturing • Myanmar • Trying to escape China • Ayeyarwady is navigable!

  14. National Stability: 2020-2040 The Accidental Superpower Coming September 2014

  15. The South Asian Geography Ganges basin is radically fertile Rivers unnavigable (Sub)tropical throughout Divorced from Asia • Extremely low capital per capita • Crushing, endemic, inescapable poverty

More Related