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Airbus Global Market Forecast 2011 – 2030 The implications for airports

Airbus Global Market Forecast 2011 – 2030 The implications for airports. Alan Pardoe Head of Marketing Communications. 20 year aircraft demand forecast Aircraft >19 seats and payload > 10 tons Traffic forecast modeling 161 distinct traffic flows

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Airbus Global Market Forecast 2011 – 2030 The implications for airports

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  1. Airbus Global Market Forecast 2011 – 2030The implications for airports Alan Pardoe Head of Marketing Communications

  2. 20 year aircraft demand forecast Aircraft >19 seats and payload > 10 tons Traffic forecast modeling 161 distinct traffic flows Detailed study of network evolution, including new routes, markets and deregulation hot spots Model the impact of evolving airline models e.g. Low cost carriers Fleet build-ups covering 869 airlines The Airbus Global Market Forecast

  3. The Airbus Global Market Forecast (GMF) The GMF is a 20 year aircraft demand and passenger traffic forecast Airport constraints not considered

  4. Air travel remains a growth market 20-year world annual traffic growth 4.8% World annual traffic (RPKs - trillions) ICAO total traffic Airbus GMF 2011 Air traffichas doubledevery 15 years Air trafficwill doublein the next15 years

  5. Source: Airbus GMF 20-year demand for almost 27,800 new passenger and freight aircraft 19,170single-aisle aircraft 6,920twin-aisle aircraft 1,680 very large aircraft ~27,800 new aircraft Market value of $3.5 trillion Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats) Jet freight aircraft (>10 tons)

  6. 20-year passenger aircraft demand for 26,900 aircraft Fleet size A forecast need for 16,422 additional aircraft Passenger aircraft 100 seats (excluding freighters)

  7. Source: Airbus GMF The Middle East accounts for 7% of global air traffic • 2010 regional distribution of total RPK traffic per airline domicile CIS3% Europe27% Middle East7% North America27% Asia24% Africa3% Latin America5% Pacific region4%

  8. Source: OAG, comparing month of September The Middle East was the fastest growing region in terms of inter-regional ASKs • ASK growth: 2010 vs. 2000 (Inter-regional passenger traffic) CIS+146% Europe+34% Middle East+229% North America+11% PRC+124% Africa+87% Asia – Pacific region+34% India Sub-continent+141% Latin America+29% The Middle East will account for 11% of global air traffic by 2030

  9. 20-year demand for almost 1,920 new passenger and freight aircraft in the Middle East 780single-aisle aircraft 810twin-aisle aircraft 330 very large aircraft ~1,920 new aircraft Market value of $347 billion 2011 Airbus GMF: Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats) Jet freight aircraft (>10 tons)

  10. These strong growth rates result in demand for 1,880 passenger aircraft over the next 20 years Fleet size A forecast need for 2,260 additional aircraft in the Middle East region Airbus 2011 GMF: Passenger aircraft 100 seats (excluding freighters)

  11. Traffic +45% Fuel +3% Since 2000, air travel has grown 45%, the growth in fuel demand relatively flat Evolution of RPKs and jet fuel demand (Base 100 in 2000) Traffic growth Jet fuel demand Source: CERA. Jet fuel demand data: CERA (millions of barrels of jet fuel)

  12. Fuel efficient Airbus aircraft Families Fuel efficient Airbus products will sustain future growth, curb fuel demand

  13. The Middle East : Prime opportunity as the “connector” of inter-regional traffic 8300 nm A320 Family 4500 nm 2500 nm World population: 40% World GDP:17% A330 Family World population: 87% World GDP: 64% A350 XWB A380 Family Source: Global Insight, Airbus

  14. < 80m wingspan < 65m wingspan < 36m wingspan Airbus aircraft families are space-efficient A380 A320 A330 A350 XWB Airbus product make best use of ramp space

  15. A320 Family 8 380 firm orders 5 051 deliveries 3 329 order backlog Over 105 million flight hours… 99.7% reliability Data to end March 2012

  16. Well-defined Airbus single-aisle product strategy Efficiency A320neo Sharklets Today 2012 2015 Building on proven values

  17. A320neo is a minimum change aircraft Sharklets New engines High commonality with A320 Family 15% lower fuel burn and more range

  18. Annual fuel savings of 15% equate to: 1.4 m litres of fuel: the consumption of 1000 mid size cars 3,600 tonnes of CO2 the CO2 absorption of 240,000 trees NOx emissions 50% below CAEP/6 500nm more range or 2 tonnes more payload Aircraft noise up to 15dB below Stage IV A320neo offers environmental benefits

  19. A320/A320neo compared A320 A320neo 68” 81” • Efficient engines • CFM56-5B • IAE V2500 • Wing tip fences • More efficient engines • CFM LEAP-1A • PW1100G • Sharklets A320neo: new engine option

  20. A320: more revenue-earning potential Containers or bulk loading of bags and revenue cargo

  21. A330 Family • 1 188 firm orders • 860 deliveries • 328 order backlog An A330 takes-off or lands every 28 seconds of every day To end March 2012

  22. A330 continuous development, increasing production • A330-200 with 238t MTOW • Now in service • 330nm extra range or up to 3.4t more payload • A330-300 with 235t MTOW • Now in service • 135nm extra range or up to 1.4t more payload Increased productivity and higher revenues Optional design weights * Vs 233t MTOW variant

  23. A330 Family - super efficient twins Over 750 aircraft sold since the launch of the 787~ four years of production backlog

  24. A330-200F: now open for business Up to 70t payload, up to 4,000 nm range

  25. A330-200F Versatility – In service fleet Operating in major and emerging markets

  26. Airbus freighter offerings A330-200F ~65 to 70 tonnes / Up to ~4,000nm 2010 2000 2020 A330 P2F ~60 tonnes / Up to ~4,000nm A300-600RP2F ~47 tonnes / Up to ~2,500nm The A330 P2F will complement the A330-200F as of 2016

  27. Freighter GMF 2010 – 2030 Traffic 5.1% Annual Growth Rate Freight traffic to almost triple in the next 20 years Fleet 3.2% Annual Growth Rate Freighter fleet to almost double over the period 1,327 810 594 30t < payload < 80t payload > 80t 10t < payload < 30t New freighter market worth US$ 200bn in the next 20 years

  28. Long-haul traffic will grow twice as fast as the network Evolution of long-haul traffic and route network, 2010 = 100% [passengers and number of city-pairs] Traffic x 2.8 Network x 1.4 Traffic will more than double – airport infrastructure will not: routes will get bigger * Long haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm

  29. Airbus wide-body aircraft Families are complementary Seats A350-1000 The new referencefor consolidatingtrunk routes A350-900 Regional efficiencyon long-haul routes A330-300 A350-800 Route developerswith point-to-pointrange capability A330-200 Range Complete fleet solutions,matching network requirements today and tomorrow

  30. Efficiency by design • Airframe with advanced materials (53% composite) • State of the art aerodynamics (M0.85 cruise speed) • Simple, efficient systems • Latest generation engines

  31. Misc. Al/Al-Li 8% 19% Steel 6% 53% Composite 14% Titanium An Intelligent Airframe by design A350-900 Material Breakdown (%) Including Landing Gear A350 XWB. New design, new materials

  32. A350 XWB final assembly has started MSN 5000 (static test) front and centre fuselage join-up Toulouse – 5th April 2012

  33. Trent XWB Flight Test Bed First flight of Trent XWB flight test bed on Feb 18th, 2012 Flight testingwellunderway

  34. A380 253firm orders 19 customers An A380 takes off or lands every 10 minutes At end March 2012

  35. Incomparable popularity “A380 flights are almost always full. In all of my 40 years in the business, I’ve never known an aircraft to be so popular. People are especially keen to fly in the A380”. Tim Clark Emirates CEO interviewed by SüddeutscheZeitung – 16th December 2011

  36. In 20 years, nearly 90 cities will handle more than 10,000 long haul passengers per day 2030: 87 Aviation Megacities across the globe Source: IATA PaxIS, OAG. Airbus GMF. * Long haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm, excl. domestic traffic

  37. The A380 network keeps growingFlying 55 routes to 29 destinations London Amsterdam Manchester Montreal Frankfurt Toronto Beijing Munich Paris Zurich Rome San Francisco New York Tokyo Seoul Los Angeles Washington DC Guangzhou Houston Shanghai Hong Kong Miami Dubai Jeddah Bangkok Kuala Lumpur Singapore Sydney Johannesburg Singapore Airlines Emirates Melbourne Auckland Qantas Air France Lufthansa Korean Air China Southern Additional airline-announced routes for 2012 shown dotted Malaysia Airlines

  38. Two aircraft, one gate. A380 airport compatibility Photos: Fraport website, Sydney Airport website A380s make better use of valuable ramp space

  39. Airbus today A380 Family A350 Family A330 Family A320 Family A full range of market leading products 11,569 aircraft sold to 337 customers

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