Sourcing Secondary Data for Cost Benefit Analysis

1. Sourcing Secondary Data for Cost Benefit Analysis Jonathan Bower Land Resources Division Secretariat of the Pacific Community

2. The word data is the plural of datumwhich is the past participle of the Latin dare, "to give", hence "something given".

3. Contents • Why secondary data? • Why secondary data is usually necessary for a CBA • What secondary data? • Sources of secondary data • Who has secondary data? • Useful contacts and general links

4. Why secondary data is usually necessary for a CBA 1. Why secondary data?

5. Why use secondary data in a CBA? • Localised primary data sources are not always enough to know the full costs and benefits of climate change, especially for CBAs of projects with a regional or national effect.

6. Why use secondary data in a CBA? • Primary and secondary data need to be brought together to gain a fuller picture • E.g. digging a large drain to stop flooding enabled 1500 extra tonnes of sugar cane to be harvested (primary data) for the same price, but I needed to know the price of sugar cane per tonne (secondary data from Fiji Sugar Corporation) so I could work out the benefit of investing in the ditch. • In the Excel example yesterday, we needed secondary data on: • grain imports • grain price • probability of biological hazard occurring

7. Sources of secondary data 2. What secondary data

8. What secondary data might be needed? • Climate change likely to affects agricultural production so we are likely looking at positive changes in crop yield or livestock production due to adaptation measures. • Existing yields, prices, revenues • Household level: Average rural household income and % of income from agriculture – to know how big a difference the adaptation measures are making. • National level: GDP contribution of agriculture • Probability of negative climate event • Adaptation will also affect production costs – which can be found from both primary and secondary sources

9. What secondary data might be needed for a CBA? Data Source Source: Steve Rogers, FAO (2010)

10. Household Income and Expenditure Survey • Does what it says on the tin, in detail. • Data on consumption of and income from food-related goods – crops, livestock, fish • You can ask for HIES data, not just the HIES report • Contact the national bureau of statistics, or if in doubt, contact Gerald Haberkorn, Manager of SPC’s Statistics for Development Program – geraldh@spc.int • WHY? Useful for: • showing what proportion of household income comes from agricultural products • showing household income and income per capita, disaggregated by region • showing population of specific areas

11. HIES Reports • Palau: 2006 http://www.palaugov.net/stats/PalauStats/Publication/2006HIES%20Report.pdf • Solomon Islands: 2006 http://www.spc.int/prism/country/sb/stats/Publication/Annual/HIES%20National%20Report-Final.pdf • Fiji: 2009 http://www.statsfiji.gov.fj/cens&surveys/HIES.htm - The Preliminary report is online and the final report has been released but is not available online yet. Contact: EpeliWaqavonovono directly or through Gerald Haberkorn • PNG 2008 Not available online. Email: knelson@nso.gov.pg – or contact Mrs. Francesca TINABAR, Director - Household Income & Expenditure Survey 2009 -2010, National Statistics Office Tel: (675) 301 1200 (675) 301 1200 Fax: (675) 325 1869 E-mail: ftinabar@nso.gov.pg

12. Domestic Market Surveys • Available from national statistics offices or departments of agriculture; used to calculate national accounts • Useful for: • Prices of specific goods, predicting those prices in future • Quantity of goods: a measure of the size of the food market, predicting the size of this market in future • Estimating potential loss of domestic market revenue from climate change and/or gain from an intervention such as introduction of salt-resistant taro

13. Domestic Market Surveys • Solomon Islands: no domestic market survey but: Market analysis of fresh vegetables in Solomon Islands (World Vegetable Center 2009) http://203.64.245.61/fulltext_pdf/EB/2001-2010/eb0138.pdf • Fiji – available from 29 July 2010 to present http://www.agriculture.org.fj/index.cfm?si=main.resources&cmd=forumview&cbegin=0&uid=mrktinfocrop&cid=1638

14. Consumer Price Index • An index constructed from the increase in price of a weighted basket of goods that the average consumer buys • Describes the rate at which price increases each year • WHY? Some costs and benefits come in nominal terms, so to convert them to real terms we need to guess what rate of inflation to use. • In simpler cases this may not be needed • Export Price Indices

15. CPI Reports • Fiji - disaggregated by region http://www.statsfiji.gov.fj/Economic/Prices.htm • PNG – urban stats only, up to September 2010 http://www.nso.gov.pg/statistical-data/economic-statistics/consumer-price-index/year-2000/3rd-quarter-september/cpi-summary • Solomon Islands – up to August 2008 http://www.spc.int/prism/country/sb/stats/Economic/cpi/Cpimajgp.htm • Palau –up to June 2010 http://www.palaugov.net/stats/PalauStats/Economic/CPI/CPI_n.htm

16. Agriculture Census • Useful for production figures and production input costs • Fiji – 2009 http://www.agriculture.org.fj/index.cfm?si=main.resources&cmd=forumview&cbegin=0&uid=nac&cid=1603 • PNG – 1963 • Solomon Islands – 1980s • Palau – 1994 http://www.pacificweb.org/DOCS/rop/PDF/94AgriCes.pdf

17. Food and Agriculture in Papua New Guinea • Epic piece of work edited by R. Michael Bourke, Statistical Appendix Tables • History of Agriculture in Papua New Guinea R. Michael Bourke • People, Land and Environment Bryant Allen and R. Michael Bourke • Food Production, Consumption and Imports R. Michael Bourke, John Gibson, Alan Quartermain, Kate Barclay, Bryant Allen and Jean Kennedy • Village Food Production Systems R. Michael Bourke and Bryant Allen • The Broader Economy Andrew McGregor and R. Michael Bourke • Cash Income from Agriculture Matthew Allen, R. Michael Bourke and Andrew McGregor • Agricultural Development, Policies and Governance Bryant Allen • Appendix Tables • Index • Free PDF download - http://epress.anu.edu.au/titles/food_agriculture_citation/pdf-download

18. National Minimum Development Indicators Database • One stop shop • But there is only data for Fiji and Solomons (as of March • Will be on PRISM web site soon - http://www.spc.int/prism • Contact: Gerald Haberkorn, Statistics for Development Program, SPC – geraldh@spc.int • Contains • Production data • Price data • Export and import data

19. National Minimum Development Indicators

20. FAO Stat • FAO estimates of production data for key commodities even in the absence of official dataLink: http://faostat.fao.org/

22. Food Balance Sheets • Useful to estimate impact of climate event, or adaptation project, on food security and nutritional outcomes • Measure the food availability per capita by measuring: • Domestic production + imports - exports - non-human uses (seed) = food available for human consumption • Also contains nutritional statistics • Dirk Schulz, FAO Food and Nutritional Office (based in Samoa) -Dirk.Schulz@fao.org • Link: http://faostat.fao.org/site/368/default.aspx#ancor

24. Pacific Trade Statistics Database

25. Potato Imports to Fiji

26. FAO World Food Situation • Food Price indices - keeps track of common global food commodity prices • Cereal Supply and Demand Brief –wheat, course grain, rice • http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/wfs-home/foodpricesindex/en/

27. Climate Data • Useful to estimate probability and severity of disaster, direction of climate change • Pacific Climate Futures • http://www.pacificclimatefutures.net/ • National reports • Basic, Intermediate, Advanced Mode • Pacific Tropical Cyclone Data Portal • http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/tracks/ • Helps predict frequency of tropical cyclones • Pacific Catastrophe Risk Assessment and Financing Initiative • http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/EASTASIAPACIFICEXT/EXTEAPREGTOPRURDEV/0,,contentMDK:22739959~pagePK:34004173~piPK:34003707~theSitePK:573964,00.html • Brochures presenting National Country Risk Profiles have been developed:

28. Other Studies

29. Useful contacts and links 3. Who has secondary data

30. Who has secondary data • National Statistics Offices • Ministries of Agriculture • Central Banks • Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) (Dirk Schulz) • Secretariat of the Pacific Community – Statistics for Development Program (Gerald Haberkorn) • Pacific Climate Change Science Program – (formerly – Gillian Cambers) • World Bank (web site) • Asian Development Bank – Mark Overmars • If in doubt, ask me (Jonathan Bower, Land Resources Division, SPC)

31. National Statistics Office Sites • Palau -http://www.palaugov.net/stats/ • Papua New Guinea - http://www.nso.gov.pg/ • Fiji - http://www.statsfiji.gov.fj/ • Solomon Islands - http://www.spc.int/prism/country/sb/stats/

32. Thank you Jonathan Bower Resource Economist, Land Resources Division Secretariat of the Pacific Community jonathanb@spc.int +679 337 0733 – ext 35425 lrdeconomics.wordpress.com Also available from ‘information and networks’ tab at www.spc.int/lrd TANGIO TUMAS/TENKYU TRU/THANK YOU/VINAKA VAKALEVU/SULANG/KO RABWA/TUBWA KOR/MALO 'AUPITO/FA'AFETAI TELE LAVA/MERCI BEAUCOUP/KIA MANUIA/KIAORA KOE/KOMOL TATA/FAKAUE LAHI/SI YU'US MA'ÅSE‘/TEKE RAOI/KALANGAN/FAKAFETAI