Jerome C. Glenn Director, The Millennium Project

1. Elements of the Next Economy 2009 State of the Future and Futures Research Methodology Version 3.0 Jerome C. Glenn Director, The Millennium Project

2. The Millennium Project 2009 STATE OF THE FUTURE JEROME C. GLENN, THEODORE J. GORDON and ELIZABETH FLORESCU

4. Some Elements of the Emerging Global Economic System to improve the human condition by 2030 • With increasing global interdependence and the speed of change, even greater economic disasters may be possible than the one the world is experiencing today. • Capitalism, socialism, and communism are early industrial age systems. • What are some future elements of the next global economy from which the next system might emerge? • 35 such elements/attractors were identified and rated as to how important they were to the he human condition • Both numeric ratings and descriptions of how they could have positive and negative impacts

5. Demographics, the Sample:217 participants from 35 countries 27 days

7. Most Controversial – bimodal distribution: • Global mechanisms for automatic financial stabilization; e.g., international convention for an automated system (expert software) to make financial policy changes as economic conditions change, conducted initially in larger economic countries • Single global currency • Artificial life—as computers were a key element in the information economy, so too artificial life might be a key to the next economy • Internationalization of labor unions • Labels on financial instruments, something like nutrition labels on food.

8. Some other interesting elements • Simultaneous knowing – time lags changed or eliminated in information dissemination with much greater transparency. • Non-ownership, as distinct from private ownership or collective/state ownership. A current example is open source software. • Alternatives to continuously creating artificial demand and growth • Self-employment via the Internet—Individuals seek markets for their abilities rather than jobs

10. Futures Research MethodologyVersions 1.0, 2.0, and 3.0 • Version 3.0 is the largest internationally peer-reviewed collection of methods to explore the future ever assembled • 39 chapters totaling 1,200-1,300 pages • 1994 Version1.0 had 17 Chapters, funded by UNDP/African Futures • 2003 Version 2.0 had 27 Chapters, funded by the U.S. Army Environmental Policy Institute • 2009 Version 3.0 has 39 Chapters, funded by the Rockefeller Foundation

11. Each chapter follows a similar outline: 1. Short overview of the method's history 2. Description of the method 3. How to do it 4. Strengths and weaknesses 5. Use in combination with other methods 6. Speculation about future of the method

12. Collective Intelligence Key element in the next economics Key result of futures research methodology Key strategy for addressing the 15 Global Challenges It is an emergent property from synergies among data/info/knowledge software/hardware experts that continually learns from feedback to produce (nearly) just in time knowledge for better decisions than these elements acting alone.

13. Some updates from the2009 State of the Future: • There are more Internet users in China than people in the USA • March 2009 an asteroid missed the Earth by 48,000 miles, 80% closer to the earth than the moon. None knew it was coming. • US-China meetings on Global Climate Change collaboration (Apollo-like goal and NASA-line Energy-Climate Change Agency) • China could pass US Economy by 2030, assuming it does not break up (water, income gaps, energy, separatist Muslim region). • World pop – 6.78 billion (June 2009) and growing at 1.14% per year (1.16% last year); hi, mid, low projections for 2050 - 10.5, 9.2, 8.0 billion, and than falls without longevity breakthroughs; Industrial countries fertility rates UP from 1.35 projected in 2006 to 1.64 • 7% annual growth in developing countries over past 5 years, to drop to 3% for 2009 – still 3 billion people living on $2 or less per day;

14. Some more items from the2009 State of the Future: • World recession lowers State of the Future Index for 10 years • US-China 10-year Apollo-like climate change goal with an energy R&D program to achieve it gaining interest (US/China Press Conf) • Press freedoms are continuing to decline • Half the world continues to be vulnerable to instability and violence • World recession • Rising prices of food and energy and fertilizer • Scarcity of water and food • Falling water tables, drying rivers • Desertification • Climate change • Failing states • Political, economic, and environmental migrations

15. 15 Global Challenges–the Agenda today How can sustainable development be achieved for all? 1 How can sustainable development be achieved for all? How can everyone have sufficient clean water without conflict? 2 How can everyone have sufficient clean water without conflict? How can ethical considerations become more routinely incorporated into global decisions? 15 How can ethical considerations become more routinely incorporated into global decisions? 3 How can population growth and resources be brought into balance? How can population growth and resources be brought into balance? How can genuine democracy emerge from authoritarian regimes? 4 How can scientific and technological breakthroughs be accelerated to improve the human condition? How can genuine democracy emerge from authoritarian regimes? 14 How can scientific and technological breakthroughs be accelerated to improve the human condition? How can policymaking be made more sensitive to global long-term perspectives? 5 How can policymaking be made more sensitive to global long-term perspectives? How can growing energy demands be met safely and efficiently? 13 How can growing energy demands be met safely and efficiently? How can transnational organized crime networks be stopped from becoming more powerful and sophisticated global enterprises? How can the global convergence of information and communications technologies work for everyone? 6 How can the global convergence of information and communications technologies work for everyone? 12 How can transnational organized crime networks be stopped from becoming more powerful and sophisticated global enterprises? How can the changing status of women improve the human condition? How can ethical market economies be encouraged to help reduce the gap between rich and poor? 7 11 How can the changing status of women improve the human condition? How can ethical market economies be encouraged to help reduce the gap between rich and poor? How can shared values and new security strategies reduce ethnic conflicts, terrorism, and the use of weapons of mass destruction? How can shared values and new security strategies reduce ethnic conflicts, terrorism, and the use of weapons of mass destruction? 10 8 How can the threat of new and reemerging diseases and immune microorganisms be reduced? How can the threat of new and reemerging diseases and immune microorganisms be reduced? How can the capacity to decide be improved as the nature of work and institutions change? How can the capacity to decide be improved as the nature of work and institutions change? 9

16. A Few words about…

17. The Millennium Project is Global... • Geographically • Institutionally • Disciplinarily • Research focus

18. UN Universities Organizations Governments Corporations NGOs Millennium Project … May become a TransInstitution

19. Millennium Project Nodes...are groups of individuals and institutions that connect global and local views in: Nodes identify participants, translate questionnaires and reports, and conduct interviews, special research, workshops, symposiums, and advanced training.

20. The Millennium Project 2009 STATE OF THE FUTURE JEROME C. GLENN, THEODORE J. GORDON and ELIZABETH FLORESCU

21. For further information Jerome C. Glenn The Millennium Project 4421 Garrison Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20016 USA +1-202-686-5179 phone/fax JGLENN@IGC.ORG WEB 1.0 www.StateoftheFuture.org WEB 2.0 www.mpcollab.org Second Life MP site under construction