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The Millennium Project July, 2007

The Millennium Project July, 2007. Real Time Delphi to identify variables, “best and worst” forecasts, and weights for SOFI. Construction of the 2007 SOFI, using these variables, with attention to national SOFIs. Establishing National SOFI Standards

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The Millennium Project July, 2007

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  1. The Millennium Project July, 2007

  2. Real Time Delphi to identify variables, “best and worst” forecasts, and weights for SOFI. • Construction of the 2007 SOFI, using these variables, with attention to national SOFIs. • Establishing National SOFI Standards • Systematizing Excel spreadsheet approach for national SOFIs

  3. The Real Time Delphi Sample

  4. The Real Time Delphi Sample

  5. Variables Domains • Intellectual • Literacy, enrollments, R&D, Internet • Health • Life expectancy, infant mortality, physicians, HIV, food • Wealth • GDP/cap, unemployment, poverty, debt service • Security • Terrorist attacks, nuc proliferation, refugees • Moral • Corruption, freedom, voting, women in parliaments • Physical • Water, CO2, forests, temperature, renewables

  6. Dashboard Experiments: Getting Worse

  7. Health, Wealth, and Intellect Health, Intellect, and Wealth

  8. Security, Morality, Physical

  9. Global vs. National Importance

  10. The Standardized Variables

  11. Three Types of SOFI’s • Global • National Comparison • National Focus

  12. Toward Standardization of SOFIs

  13. The Excel SOFI Spreadsheets • History of variables and extrapolation • SOFI Baseline • TIA Developments • Events and Variables • TIA (and macro) • SOFI with TIA

  14. Example of Output From Sheet 5

  15. SOFI Materials Available to Nodes • Excel spreadsheets • Reports • Millennium Project Study of State of the Future Index Variables and Their Use in Country to Country Comparisons (the Real Time Delphi) • Building the 2007 SOFI • A Standardized Approach to Building National SOFIs

  16. Remaining Work • Produce robust “enterprise level” software • Review and utilize the "standard" for national SOFI's • Construct and compare national SOFI’s • Conduct an analysis designed to find whether country SOFI’s (weighted by population) add up to the global SOFI. • Experiments with other applications (e.g. corporate SOFI’s) • Consider other dimensions (e.g. a measure of national innovativeness) • Review and improve TIA judgments • Construct on line data bases of variables and events to facilitate national and other applications.

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