Flood Map Modernization and FEMA Levee Policy February 2008

1. Flood Map Modernization and FEMA Levee PolicyFebruary 2008 Doug Bellomo Director, Risk Analysis Division Mitigation Directorate, FEMA

2. Overview • National Flood Insurance Program Background • Map Modernization Status • Levees • Flood Risk – What it is and isn’t

3. Overview • National Flood Insurance Program Background • Map Modernization Status • Levees • Flood Risk – What it is and isn’t

4. National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) Background • Flood Insurance – the federal government makes it available (more affordable than private market) • Floodplain Management – program participant (local government) agrees to adopt building standards aimed at reducing future risk • Flood Maps – Made collaboratively with state and local governments

5. NFIP Status • Over 20,000 communities participate in the program • Over 5 million flood insurance policies in force • Over $1 trillion in insurance coverage (exposure)

6. Overview • National Flood Insurance Program Background • Map Modernization Status • Levees • Flood Risk – What it is and isn’t

7. Map Modernization Status • Five year roughly $1B effort • Began in FY04 • Estimated completion FY10 • FY08 Budget – Appropriated $220M • Annual planning process results in publication of Multi-Year Flood Hazard Identification Plan (MHIP) • Currently working on FY08 MHIP – planned release Spring 2008

8. Performance Metrics – Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) Using dollars provided through this FY, our goal remains as covering 92% of the nations population with a modernized flood map by 2010

9. Overview • National Flood Insurance Program Background • Map Modernization Status • Levees • Flood Risk – What it is and isn’t

10. Misconceptions • FEMA Certifies Levees – we don’t levee owners or other parties seeking recognition do • Insurance not available in floodplains, areas protected by levees, or behind de-accredited levees – it is as long as the local government participates its available • All levees provide significant protection – they don’t they provide varying levels of protection which can change through time • FEMA’s regulations for how levees are accredited have changed recently – they’ve been on the books since the mid 1980’s • FEMA will only accredit Federal Levees – private levees can also be certified and ultimately accredited

11. What is FEMA doing with respect to levees? • Making sure that levees shown as providing protection do in fact provide the stated level of protection – truth in labeling • Update flood hazard data to reflect existing conditions – not proposed conditions • Work with states, locals, and other federal agencies to ensure the flood risk is properly communicated • Help people make sound decisions based on the facts

12. LeveesInterim Guidance for Studies Including Levees • Early in Map Mod FEMA understood the challenge of identifying flood hazards in and around levees • Pre-Katrina (Aug 2005) we issued Procedure Memo 34 emphasizing importance of following existing regulations while updating flood maps • Re-iterated what regulations say - levees cannot be assumed to provide 1% annual chance protection

13. LeveesGuidelines for Identifying Provisionally Accredited Levees (PAL) • Adjusted mapping procedures further to balance owner need for time and FEMA responsibility to identify flood hazards in a timely way • Procedure Memo 43 introduces Provisionally Accredited Levees • Only levees currently accredited are eligible • Responsible parties must state they believe levee meets regulatory requirements • FEMA provides 2 year period to compile required documentation • Levee is “Provisionally Accredited” • Policy was developed in close coordination with the USACE

14. LeveesFEMA’s Accreditation Regulations • In place since 1986 • 44 Code of Federal Regulations Section 65.10 • Compliance with Section 65.10 resides with levee owner or other party seeking recognition that a levee provides protection against the base flood • Requirements include aspects of levee • Design • Operation • Maintenance

15. So, what does this mean? • FEMA will continue to: • Ask owners or other parties seeking recognition to provide required documentation before showing a levee as providing protection • Make accommodations for provisional accreditation of levees when and where appropriate • Continue to coordinate closely with the USACE, other federal agencies, and our stakeholders • Listen, learn, and adjust within the bounds of the law and our mission

16. What else does it mean? • We all have some responsibility • States • Locals • Levee boards/owners • Federal government • Home/Business owners • With that responsibility comes an obligation to at a minimum inform, but better - act • Ignoring the problem or delaying action will not make it go away – it makes it worse

17. Overview • National Flood Insurance Program Background • Map Modernization Status • Levees • Flood Risk – What it is and isn’t

18. Flood “Probability” is NOT Flood “Risk” • Flood risk and flood probability are erroneously used interchangeably • This, coupled with a need for legal clarity, has generally led to a zero/one mentality of flood risk • High risk (in the floodplain) OR • No risk (outside the floodplain) • Its more complicated than that • Risk = probability x consequences • Risks can be high in situations where relatively low probabilities are offset by high consequences AND • Risk can be low where high probabilities are offset by low consequences

19. Some Examples

20. Communicating The Equation • Probabilities – Fear and Uncertainty • Largely decided by Mother Nature and understood by few • Plagued with assumptions and fraught with uncertainty – “Past performance no indication of future value” • Difficult to communicate risk through probabilities effectively • Consequences – Hope and Clarity • Largely within an individuals control • Insurance is available • Evacuation plans can be developed and exercised • In communicating risk we should • Seek to understand the probabilities and unknowns • Accept the uncertainties and fact that science cannot predict the future • Resist toiling over the probabilities - they are a trap, fodder for inaction • Focus on controlling risk through action aimed at things within our control