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Tomorrow’s food shopper Verdict Consulting

Tomorrow’s food shopper Verdict Consulting. Agenda What we ’ ll talk about. 1. 2. 3. what we’ve got. how we shop. what it means. But first A short story…. 1. what we’ve got. What we’ve got A squeeze. incomings. outgoings. prices. What we’ve got The impact. Before recession

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Tomorrow’s food shopper Verdict Consulting

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  1. Tomorrow’s food shopper Verdict Consulting

  2. Agenda What we’ll talk about 1 2 3 what we’ve got how we shop what it means

  3. But first A short story…

  4. 1 what we’ve got

  5. What we’ve got A squeeze incomings outgoings prices

  6. What we’ve got The impact Before recession (2007) During recession (2009) After recession (2011) Disposable £29,982 Disposable £29,625 Disposable £29,005 Discretionary £9,301 Discretionary £12,903 Discretionary £8,788

  7.   lack money I can’t spend lack will I won’t spend lack spontaneity I think, then spend What we’ve got Changing mindsets

  8. What we’ve got Total retail spending growth Total retail consumer spending growth 2.9% 2.8% 2.7% 2.4% 1.8% 1.6% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

  9. What we’ve got Volume and inflation Total retail consumer spending growth 2.9% 2.8% 2.7% 2.6% 2.4% 1.8% 0.1% 1.9% 2.3% 1.6% 1.5% 0.3% 1.3% 1.7% 0.9% 0.4% 0.8% 0.6% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Volume growth Inflation growth

  10. What we’ve got Sector growth Average annual growth (2010-15) +4.0% +3.9% +3.4% 2.4% +0.7% +0.6 +0.6 +0.4 DIY Homewares Electricals Furniture Total Beauty Clothing Food

  11. What we’ve got Food and grocery growth Food and grocery growth (inflation and volume) Volume growth Inflation growth

  12. 2 how we shop

  13. How we shop Price sensitivity Percentage of food consumers mentioning price as a driver of store choice

  14. 6.4 4.5 3.2 3.0 2.4 2.1 2.0 1.5 1.1 1.1 0.4 0.4 -0.5 -1.5 Food inflation Real household disposable income How we shop Price sensitivity links Annual change in inflation and in price as a driver of store choice 8 6 6.1 4 2 0.7 0 -0.3 -0.5 -0.9 -2 -4 -4.2 -6 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Price mentions as driver

  15. How we shop Price more important Forecast of price sensitivity for this year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 42.1% 48.2% 47.3% 48.0% 50.5% Food inflation Real household disposable income

  16. 24.6% 9.8% How we shop Dynamics of sensitivity Differences in those concerned about price (2003 v 2010) 2003 2010 32.2% 22.5%

  17. How we shop It’s not all bad news Factors driving demand Cinema attendance Pub going Dining out Foreign holidays UK holidays

  18. How we shop The premium honeypot Growth segments in food retail (2011 to 2012) 6.7% 5.1% 2.2% Premium Mainstream Value

  19. How we shop The premium honeypot Competitors will put effort behind ‘best’ (5%) (20%) (16%)

  20. How we shop It’s easier to go down, than to go up What do attributes mean? Price Quality

  21. How we shop The great balancing act The parable of Neil’s shopping trip (based on a true story) What Neil wanted What Neil also purchased £21.94 £42.69

  22. How we shop In a nutshell Constrained Frugal Save money Trade up Market share Volume

  23. 3 what it means

  24. What it means Everyday value

  25. What it means Innovation

  26. What it means Clarity Layouts Ranges Promotions Stores

  27. What it means Segmentation

  28. What it means Stimulation Customer shares over Christmas 2010 Level Players operating at this level Usual shop Xmas shop Level 1 3.6% 6.9% Level 2 16.9% 15.5% Level 3 37.1% 34.7% Level 4 35.7% 33.4% Level 5 1.5% 1.6% Level 6 4.1% 3.2%

  29. What it means The recipe for success Empathy Editing Emotion Excitement

  30. the end

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