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Intense Surface Cyclone Activity in the Arctic During the 2005-06 and 2006-07 Cool Seasons

Intense Surface Cyclone Activity in the Arctic During the 2005-06 and 2006-07 Cool Seasons Brian Silviotti, Lance F. Bosart, and Daniel Keyser Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences University at Albany, Albany, New York 33 rd Northeastern Storm Conference 14-16 March 2008

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Intense Surface Cyclone Activity in the Arctic During the 2005-06 and 2006-07 Cool Seasons

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  1. Intense Surface Cyclone Activity in the Arctic During the 2005-06 and 2006-07 Cool Seasons Brian Silviotti, Lance F. Bosart, and Daniel Keyser Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences University at Albany, Albany, New York 33rd Northeastern Storm Conference 14-16 March 2008

  2. Motivation Major Arctic Shipping Routes • Arctic not studied often • Intense arctic cyclones pose economic hazards, especially to shipping Source: www.hofstra.edu

  3. Purpose • Establish a limited track climatology • Compare cyclone mergers and nonmergers • Present a case study of a cyclone merger event

  4. Methodology • Definitions • Cool season – October 1 to March 31 • Arctic – poleward of 50°N • Intense cyclone – central pressure ≤ 980 hPa • Subjectively analyzed maps • Genesis/lysis time • Position and track • Central pressure • Merging

  5. Data • Maps • NH MSLP and 1000-500 hPa thickness • NH dynamic tropopause (DT) potential temperature and wind • Datasets • GFS 0.5/1.0° analysis • NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis • Sources • Ron McTaggart-Cowan online GFS animation builder • University at Albany DEAS archive room • CDC interactive plotting and analysis web page

  6. 2005-06 Cool Season 300 hPa Height Mean and Anomaly CI = 100m CI = 10m Source: www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd

  7. 2006-07 Cool Season 300 hPa Height Mean and Anomaly CI = 100m CI = 10m Source: www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd

  8. 2005-06 Cool Season Storm Tracks Oct/Nov Dec/Jan Feb/Mar • 50 Storms • Oct/Nov: 20 • Dec/Jan: 21 • Feb/Mar: 9

  9. 2006-07 Cool Season Storm Tracks Oct/Nov Dec/Jan Feb/Mar Case Study • 96 Storms • Oct/Nov: 25 • Dec/Jan: 47 • Feb/Mar: 24

  10. Merger Locations - By Month (2005-07) Oct/Nov Dec/Jan Feb/Mar Case Study • 44 Mergers • Oct/Nov: 11 • Dec/Jan: 22 • Feb/Mar: 11 Arctic/Arctic Mergers 23 Arctic/Mid-latitude Mergers 21

  11. Merger Locations – By Strength (2005-07) 970 – 980 hPa 960 – 969 hPa 950 – 959 hPa < 950 hPa Case Study • 44 Mergers • 970-980 hPa: 16 • 960-969 hPa: 17 • 950-959 hPa: 9 • < 950 hPa : 2

  12. Mergers vs. Nonmergers

  13. Case Study • Example of a cyclone merger event • Occurred in Central Pacific for 11 Feb. 2007 - 19 Feb. 2007 • Two surface cyclones and three positive potential vorticity (PV) anomalies merged

  14. 300 hPa Height Mean and Anomaly for 11 Feb. 2007 - 19 Feb. 2007 CI = 50m CI = 15m Source: www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd

  15. Case Study – Surface Lows Feb. 2007

  16. Case Study – PV Anomalies Feb. 2007

  17. Case Study – PV Anomalies and Surface Lows Feb. 2007

  18. 11 Feb. 2007 12 UTC DT Potential Temperature, Wind C B A

  19. 12 Feb. 2007 00 UTC DT Potential Temperature, Wind

  20. 12 Feb. 2007 12 UTC DT Potential Temperature, Wind

  21. 13 Feb. 2007 00 UTC DT Potential Temperature, Wind

  22. 13 Feb. 2007 12 UTC DT Potential Temperature, Wind

  23. 14 Feb. 2007 00 UTC DT Potential Temperature, Wind

  24. 14 Feb. 2007 12 UTC DT Potential Temperature, Wind AB C

  25. 15 Feb. 2007 00 UTC DT Potential Temperature, Wind

  26. 15 Feb. 2007 12 UTC DT Potential Temperature, Wind

  27. 16 Feb. 2007 00 UTC DT Potential Temperature, Wind

  28. 16 Feb. 2007 12 UTC DT Potential Temperature, Wind AB D C

  29. 17 Feb. 2007 00 UTC DT Potential Temperature, Wind

  30. 17 Feb. 2007 12 UTC DT Potential Temperature, Wind

  31. 18 Feb. 2007 00 UTC DT Potential Temperature, Wind ABD

  32. 18 Feb. 2007 12 UTC DT Potential Temperature, Wind

  33. 19 Feb. 2007 00 UTC DT Potential Temperature, Wind

  34. 19 Feb. 2007 12 UTC DT Potential Temperature, Wind

  35. 15 Feb. 2007 12 UTC Sounding from Akita, Japan Source: www.weather.uwyo.edu

  36. 11 Feb. 2007 12 UTC MSLP, 1000-500 hPa Thickness

  37. 12 Feb. 2007 00 UTC MSLP, 1000-500 hPa Thickness

  38. 12 Feb. 2007 12 UTC MSLP, 1000-500 hPa Thickness

  39. 13 Feb. 2007 00 UTC MSLP, 1000-500 hPa Thickness

  40. 13 Feb. 2007 12 UTC MSLP, 1000-500 hPa Thickness

  41. 14 Feb. 2007 00 UTC MSLP, 1000-500 hPa Thickness

  42. 14 Feb. 2007 12 UTC MSLP, 1000-500 hPa Thickness

  43. 15 Feb. 2007 00 UTC MSLP, 1000-500 hPa Thickness

  44. 15 Feb. 2007 12 UTC MSLP, 1000-500 hPa Thickness

  45. 16 Feb. 2007 00 UTC MSLP, 1000-500 hPa Thickness

  46. 16 Feb. 2007 12 UTC MSLP, 1000-500 hPa Thickness

  47. 17 Feb. 2007 00 UTC MSLP, 1000-500 hPa Thickness

  48. 17 Feb. 2007 12 UTC MSLP, 1000-500 hPa Thickness

  49. 18 Feb. 2007 00 UTC MSLP, 1000-500 hPa Thickness

  50. 18 Feb. 2007 12 UTC MSLP, 1000-500 hPa Thickness

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