1. MRPO Technical Approach “Nearer” Term Overview For: • Emissions Modeling • Meteorological Modeling • Photochemical Modeling & Domain • Model Performance Evaluation • Regulatory Support These approaches are dynamic and will change as emissions, met, chemistry, and deposition processes evolve and hopefully improve

2. Currently 1999 NEI v2 MOBILE6 BEIS3/BIOME3* CMU Ammonia 1995 Canadian anthropogenic Moving Toward 2002 Emissions submitted from the States MOBILE6** BEIS3/BIOME3* CMU Ammonia Newer Canadian Inventory Emissions *Day Specific **Day Specific for Summer Months

3. Current Setup Explicit Moisture: Simple ice PBL: Pleim-Xiu Multi-Layer Soil Model: Pleim-Xiu Radiation: RRTM Cumulus: Kain-Fritsch 4-D Data Assimilation: Analysis nudging on; only above PBL Future Obtain annual 2002 simulation using latest version of MM5 and with water phase mixing ratios explicitly output Obtain EPA annual 2001 simulation MM5

4. Other Model Inputs • Initial and Boundary conditions: • Currently: profile (v6) released with CMAQ • Switching to GEOS-CHEM output when available • Simulations spin up 2 weeks to minimize impact • Landuse (11 categories): • USGS landuse • Ozone Column: • Daily TOMS ozone column data • Albedo: • Monthly albedo based on 10 years of TOMS reflectivity data • Photolysis Rates: • TUV4.0 processor using the discrete ordinate algorithm; • daily rates files based on daily O3 column and monthly albedo

5. CAMx4 • CB4 gas-phase chemistry • Semi-volatile secondary organic aerosol module • ISORROPIA thermodynamics module • PPM horizontal transport, implicit vertical transport • RADM based aqueous phase chemistry (same as CMAQ) • Sub-grid plume treatment: TBD • Platform • RedHat Linux PCs • Portland Group Fortran Compiler *Plan to apply CMAQ and REMSAD to specific episodes as a QA step

6. MM5 Domain (light yellow) • 165 X, 129 Y, 35 Z • 36 km cells • CAMx Domain (dark yellow) • 97 X, 90 Y, 14 Z • 36 km cells • Lambert projection • Center (-97,40) • True latitudes (33,45)

7. Model Performance • IMPROVE • 24 hr samples every 3 days • PM2.5 Speciation • Super Sites & Special Studies • Hourly gases and meteorology • Hourly/daily PM2.5 Speciation • EPA Speciation • 24 hr samples every 3 days • PM2.5 Speciation • March Midwest • daily 24 hr samples • PM2.5 Speciation • NH3, HNO3, HNO2, SO2 • AIRS -- not shown • Hourly criteria pollutants • TDL U.S. Airways – not shown • Hourly meteorological data

8. Source Apportionment • Focusing on source apportionment runs to support strategy development • De-emphasizing VOC, NOX, SO2, NH3 “generalized” emissions adjustments 1. Biogenics 2. Other Area 3. Point 4. Nonroad 5. Onroad 6. Ammonia

9. Summary • Transition this year from 1999 to 2002 based anthropogenic emissions • Continue to use our 2002 MM5 36km simulation; may seek an updated 2002 MM5 36km run from another RPO • Continual model performance for 2002 and other select episodes as emissions and meteorology change • Iterative modeling process: continually updating emissions, met, and photochemical modeling until we essentially “run out of time” for SIP • Strategy formulation process will be supported with source apportionment modeling rather than zero out runs or across the board emissions adjustments

10. Continental Domain v. Eastern Domain

11. 15km Top v 6km Top