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Challenges and Scenarios in North Korea: Peace, Stability, and Reunification

Explore the complex issues around North Korea, including successes and failures of dialogue, reform, and reunification efforts. The text outlines best and worst-case scenarios, potential flow charts of nuclear issues, and strategies for responding to the country's actions.

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Challenges and Scenarios in North Korea: Peace, Stability, and Reunification

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  1. US:Raising B.C Weapons Issues Peaceful Reunification Failures of NK Reform (New Provocations) Observance of Mutual Agreement Peace&Stability Peace Coexistence (Divided) Success of NK Reform&Soft Landing Change of NK Regime Military Sanction against NK Armistice : Continuation of S-N Confrontation • Best Scenario : Success of Dialogue • Observance of Mutual Agreement • Success of NK Reform & Soft Landing • Peace & Stability • Peaceful Reunification • Bad Scenario : Failure of Dialogue • Economic/Diplomatic Sanction • Military Sanction Armed Conflict • New Phase of S-N Confrontation • ※ Worst scenario:Vicious Circle of Threat, • Confrontation & Conflict Possible Flow Chart of NK Nuke lssue H.S. Kim(’04. 10) Success of Dialogue/Agreement Success NK:Violation of Mutual Agreement (Cont’ to develop Nuke) Challenges Dialogue (Six- Party talks) Fail Reunification By Force Economic/Diplomatic Sanction against NK Failure of Dialogue/Agreement Armed Conflict NK’s Strategy Response of the World(US) <Guarantee of Regime Survival&Economic Support: Recognition of a few Nukes & US-NK Non Aggression Agreement> · USFK, ROK & JAPAN as Hostage · Expecting Direct & Indirect support from China & others • <CVID:Through Dimensional Approach> • Dialogue:Six-Party Talks • Pressure:PSI,DrugPolitics·Economy •  Military Sanction • Indirect App’:Supporting NK Refugees • by Human Rights Bill,etc

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