NOAA Climate Program: Status and Directions

1. NOAA Climate Program:Status and Directions Dave Goodrich NOAA Climate Program Office NOAA Fisheries Leadership Council November 30, 2004

2. Program Plan OverviewMission Goal 2 - Climate Understand climate variability and change to enhance society’s ability to plan and respond. OUTCOMES • A predictive understanding of the global climate system with quantified uncertainties sufficient for making informed and reasoned decisions on timescales of weeks to decades. • Climate-sensitive sectors and the climate-literate public effectively incorporating NOAA’s climate products into their decisions and plans.

3. Program Plan Objectives • Describe and understand the state of the climate system through integrated observations, analysis, and data stewardship. • Reduce uncertainty in climate projections through timely information on the forcing and feedbacks contributing to changes in the Earth’s climate. • Improve climate predictive capability from weeks to decades, with an increased range of applicability for management and policy decisions. • Understand and predict the consequences of climate variability and change in marine ecosystems. • Increase number and use of climate products and services to enhance public and private sector decision making.

4. Climate Program Structure Climate Program Director: Chet Koblinsky Climate Program Element Program Manager • Observations and Analysis Tom Karl/NESDIS • Climate Forcing Dan Albritton/OAR • Predictions and Projections Ants Leetmaa/OAR • Climate and Ecosystems Ned Cyr/NMFS • Regional Decision Support Bob Livezey/NWS

5. Argo Status - November 2004

6. Observations and AnalysisObjectives Describe and understand the state of the climate system through integrated observations, analysis, and data stewardship: • A tiered and integrated observational network that provides sustained global and U.S. monitoring of key climate related parameters; • An end-to-end data stewardship system to provide climate quality information and respond to the projected data growth rates; • Provide sophisticated analyses to differentiate climate variability and change as a result of natural processes and human activities. Desired End-State: Integrated and complete ocean and surface, upper air and space observing systems in support of the mission outcome “a predictive understanding of the global climate system”: FY07: Improve climate forecast through observing and data systems with full coverage of continental US atmosphere and sparse coverage of global ocean, as well as atmospheric reanalysis of 1920s to 2000. FY11: Significantly improve global climate forecast with integrated observing and data systems for US atmosphere and global oceans and atmosphere-ocean reanalysis and attribution studies of the 20th century.

8. Climate ForcingObjectives Reduce uncertainty in climate projections through timely information on the forcings and feedbacks contributing to changes in the Earth's climate: • Attain a timely understanding of atmospheric and oceanic carbon dioxide trends, both natural and human, that may be directly applied to climate projection and to policy decisions regarding climate management that are related to limiting unwanted effects of future climate change. • Provide timely and adequate information on the climate roles of the radiatively important trace atmospheric species (e.g., fine-particle aerosols and ozone) that is needed to broaden the suite of non-carbon options available for policy support regarding the climate change issue. Desired End-State: The understanding needed to link emissions to the radiative forcing of climate change for science-based decision support in support of the mission outcome “a predictive understanding of the global climate system”: FY07: Improve long-term projections on the future state of the climate understanding of aerosol impacts on Earth’s radiative balance and monitoring carbon over most of North America at coarse resolution. FY11: Improve projections of the future state of the climate through better understanding of North American carbon sources and sinks and improved parameterizations of aerosol and water vapor impacts on the Earth’s radiative balance

10. Predictions and ProjectionsObjectives Develop a predictive understanding of the global climate system on timescales of weeks to decades with quantified uncertainties sufficient for making informed decisions • Improve intraseasonal and interannual climate predictions to enable regional and national managers to better plan for the impacts of climate variability and change • Provide improved regional, national, and international climate assessments and projections to support policy decisions with objective information. Desired End-State: A seamless suite of forecasts (e.g. outlooks and projections) on intraseasonal, seasonal, interannual, and multi-decadal timescales and applications using ensembles of multiple climate models in support of the mission outcome “a predictive understanding of the global climate system”: FY07: Provide regional resolution forecasts to decision makers through increased computer and model capacity. FY11: Provide a broader suite of climate forecast products and services through development of Earth System Model.

11. Climate Regime Shifts and Fisheries • High vs. low productivity associated with climate regimes • Need to manage fish stocks with this new paradigm Warm phase Warm phase Cool phase Cool phase

12. Climate Impacts on EcosystemsObjectives Understand and predict the consequences of climate variability and change on marine ecosystems • Predict the probable consequences of global climate change on ecological systems and their living resources • Deliver to fisheries and coastal zone managers the knowledge and tools needed to incorporate climate variability into the management of living marine and coastal resources. • Develop indicators of climate variability that affect coastal and marine living resources. Desired End-State:An ability to predict probable consequences of global climate change on ecological systems and living resources in support of of the mission outcome “a predictive understanding of the global climate system”: FY07: Increase understanding of climate decadal change impacts on North Pacific marine ecosystems over a wider geographic extent. FY11: Better understanding of place-based impacts of climate variability and change on North Pacific ecosystems and climate-induced sea level inundation on coastal ecosystems in southeastern US.

14. Regional Decision SupportObjectives • Increase number and use of climate products and services to enhance public and private sector decision making • The climate literate public effectively incorporating NOAA’s climate products into their regular operations. • Enhanced public and private sector performance through better access, understanding, and use of climate information in planning and decision making. • An operational infrastructure to continually infuse information to decision makers through product development and delivery. • A responsive research enterprise focused on identifying the nation’s principal climate sensitive resource challenges and opportunities and creating knowledge and tools useful to expanded options for decision makers. • Desired End-State: A mature and efficient system for understanding and responding to stakeholder needs for products and services in support of mission outcome 2 to incorporate NOAA products into plans and decisions: • FY07: Improve coordination of research, transition, and operational products and services and begin to evaluate outcomes • FY11: Expand and improve regional and national services, based on evaluation, such that operations and management in climate sensitive sectors is markedly improved