Energy Intertwined with Multiple Dilemmas

1. Welcome Participants!to the DPRK Energy Expert Study Group MeetingFour Seasons HotelEast Palo Alto, California, USAJune 26 – June 27, 2006

2. Thank you! Co-HostsPreventive Defense Project at Stanford UniversityCenter for the Pacific Rim at University of San FranciscoWilliam ShorensteinDonorsUS Department of Energy Korea Energy Economics Institute New Land, Ploughshares, and MacArthur Foundations

5. Energy Intertwined with Multiple Dilemmas • the threat of nuclear proliferation • the threat of war in the Korean Peninsula • the possible first-use of nuclear weapons since 1945 • the threat of collapse and civil war in the North • the grinding, cumulative costs of continued high levels of tension

7. Workshop GoalTo improve our mutual understanding of these critical issuesTo create a stock of common knowledge that we can all rely upon to improve security and sustainability in the Korean Peninsula over the coming years

8. Research Objectives at this Workshop: To Compile: • quantitative and physical description of the energy situation in the North.

9. Research Objectives at this Workshop: To Compile: • quantitative and physical description of the energy situation in the North. • compile sectorally specific data for North Korea’s energy economy, both supply and demand

10. Research Objectives at this Workshop: To Compile: • quantitative and physical description of the energy situation in the North. • compile sectorally specific data for North Korea’s energy economy, both supply and demand, including the military • examine the total data set for consistency, errors, and oversights

11. Research Objectives at this Workshop: To Compile: • quantitative and physical description of the energy situation in the North. • compile sectorally specific data for North Korea’s energy economy, both supply and demand, including the military • examine the total data set for consistency, errors, and oversights • include biomass energy as well as fossil energy supply.

12. Research Objectives at this Workshop: To Compile: • quantitative and physical description of the energy situation in the North. • compile sectorally specific data for North Korea’s energy economy, both supply and demand, including the military • examine the total data set for consistency, errors, and oversights • include biomass energy as well as fossil energy supply. • look at energy demand and supply in the DPRK in multiple dimensions: ­energy economy, technology, and environment. 

13. Research Objectives at this Workshop: To Compile: • quantitative and physical description of the energy situation in the North. • compile sectorally specific data for North Korea’s energy economy, both supply and demand, including the military • examine the total data set for consistency, errors, and oversights • include biomass energy as well as fossil energy supply. • look at energy demand and supply in the DPRK in multiple dimensions: ­energy economy, technology, and environment.  • seek guidance on drivers and rates of change that determine future possible energy paths.

14. Research Objectives at this Workshop: To Compile: • quantitative and physical description of the energy situation in the North. • compile sectorally specific data for North Korea’s energy economy, both supply and demand, including the military • examine the total data set for consistency, errors, and oversights • include biomass energy as well as fossil energy supply. • look at energy demand and supply in the DPRK in multiple dimensions: ­energy economy, technology, and environment.  • seek guidance on drivers and rates of change that determine future possible energy paths. • group policy options into sets of options that relate to the time-lines that arise from possible scenarios of DPRK nuclear dismantlement

15. Research Objectives at this Workshop: To Compile: • quantitative and physical description of the energy situation in the North. • compile sectorally specific data for North Korea’s energy economy, both supply and demand, including the military • examine the total data set for consistency, errors, and oversights • include biomass energy as well as fossil energy supply. • look at energy demand and supply in the DPRK in multiple dimensions: ­energy economy, technology, and environment.  • seek guidance on drivers and rates of change that determine future possible energy paths. • group policy options into sets of options that relate to the time-lines that arise from possible scenarios of DPRK nuclear dismantlement

16. Robust Policy • If little or no progress is made in the 6-Party Talks or other venues, these options will form a robust foundation for mid- and long-term security strategies in the region that will ensure stability in the Korean Peninsula. • They should also minimize the risk of possible loss-of control of nuclear materials and/or weapons due to the outright collapse of the DPRK; and reduce the chance that nuclear exports are undertaken to earn essential foreign exchange for the DPRK.

17. Final ProductA synthesis report that will be produced by Nautilus Institute in collaboration with the Korea Energy Economics Institute (KEEI).  This report will be provided to all the parties to the Six-Party talks, to yourselves, and to the general public

18. “Chatham House” Rules "WHEN A MEETING, OR PART THEREOF, IS HELD UNDER THE CHATHAM HOUSE RULE, PARTICIPANTS ARE FREE TO USE THE INFORMATION RECEIVED, BUT NEITHER THE IDENTITY NOR THE AFFILIATION OF THE SPEAKER(S), NOR THAT OF ANY OTHER PARTICIPANT, MAY BE REVEALED

19. Thank you!