1 / 16

Analyses of markets for Tradable Green Certificates (TGC) ECON, Profu, Chalmers, EME

Berit Tennbakk, ECON Håkan Sköldberg, Profu. Analyses of markets for Tradable Green Certificates (TGC) ECON, Profu, Chalmers, EME. Current status: Sweden and Norway – no TGC union?. Sweden Started national TGC market in 2003 New legislation 2006: Extension in time

alva
Télécharger la présentation

Analyses of markets for Tradable Green Certificates (TGC) ECON, Profu, Chalmers, EME

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Berit Tennbakk, ECON Håkan Sköldberg, Profu Analyses of markets for Tradable Green Certificates (TGC) ECON, Profu, Chalmers, EME

  2. Current status: Sweden and Norway – no TGC union? Sweden Started national TGC market in 2003 New legislation 2006: Extension in time … and geography: Wants common market Norway Broad political support, but … The conflict: All hydro, no wind? Start of a common Swedish-Norwegian market delayed – again! Earliest start-up: 2008 But efficiency gains may be eroded

  3. Current status: Denmark – The TGC market that disappeared ? • 1999 – Power market reform • Implement green certificates market • 2002 – Implementation postponed • Waiting for common EU TGC market • 2005 – Denmark likely to reach renewables target without TGC market • Still waiting for common EU market • More positive attitude last 18 months?

  4. Current status: Finland not interested? Finland likely to reach renewables targets Mostly negative attitude towards TGC Minister of industry Forest industry New climate strategy does not include provisions for TGC market No prospect for a common Nordic TGC market!

  5. A common Nordic TGC market: Huge scope for efficiency gains Profu TGC prices Net TGC import 150 6 Import 4 Common Nordic price 100 2 0 TWh SEK/MWh 50 -2 Export -4 0 -6 Swe Nor Fin Den Swe Nor Fin Den Nordic TGC market integration may save almost 0.5 Billion Euro !!

  6. TGC generation – National vs Common market (A Nordleden scenario based on EU Directive 2001/77)

  7. International TGC trade depends on national quotas

  8. Norway 50 40 30 øre/kWh 20 10 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 TWh 2008 2012 2016 Sweden 50 40 30 øre/kWh 20 10 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 TWh 2008 2012 2016 Short-term supply limitations Larger potential in Norway (given cost level) Impossible to realize full potential in the short term Lowest cost alternatives not realized first Will investors realize this? Yes: scarcity? No: wrong investments

  9. Increased quotas over time • Sweden • 10 TWh new renewables within 2010 (extended to 16 TWh in 2016) • Norway: two alternatives • 10 TWh new renewables (N10) within 2015 (compared to 1.1. 2004) • 20 TWh new renewables (N20) within 2015 (compared to 1.1. 2004)

  10. Wind enters at full speed • Increase in quota leads to • Increased wind investments in both countries • Some hydro in Norway, marginal increase in bio • Some bio in Sweden, no increase in hydro

  11. A common Swe-Nor market for TGCs : 21 TWh in Swe and 20 TWh in Nor (2016) Profu Profu Separate markets Common market

  12. Certificate prices in Norway and Sweden (Study by Swedish Energy Agency)25 Markal-Nordic model runs

  13. Electricity production 20 2015 from Swedish CHP Biofuel Gas Oil 15 Coal TWh/year 10 5 0 2002 EU ETS TGC EU ETS and TGC TGC schemes may be powerful instruments !

  14. TGCs vs. TEPs: Who benefits?Some observations • Renewables policies are costly • Sweden gains because of lower certificate prices • Effect on producer surplus depends on ambition level • Short vs. long term effects • Renewables producers gain • CO2 market • Ambiguous producer surplus effect: Amount of free allocations? • Renewables gain – particularly “old” renewables • TGC market dampens price effect – renewables replace new gas power 2012: Short – medium term effects

  15. Thank you! www.NordicEnergyPerspectives.org

  16. Differences in marginal costs for generating TGCs in the Nordic countries (2010) Profu

More Related