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  1. Priority-Setting for Agricultural Biotechnologyin West AfricaUSAID/EGATMarch 9, 2005William A. MastersPurdue University

  2. The economic gains from new technology are proportional to output before adoption (PxQ) times the probability of cost reduction (“K”) Figure 1. Economic impact assessment in one picture D S S’ S” Price Variables and data sources Market data P,Q National ag. stats. Field data JYield change×adoption rate I Input change per unit Economic parameters K Supply elasticity(=1 to omit) ΔQDemand elasticity (=0?) J(output gain) P K (cost reduction) ΔQ I (input change) Q Q’ Quantity

  3. Strategic targeting can be much improved through concordance…

  4. Strategic targeting aims for large problems that are being missed by other investors Figure 2. Prevalence of stunting in Sub-Saharan Africa (latest available, includes sub-national data)

  5. The biggest needs are in cereals, cassava, and oilcrops Fig. 3. Share of food production by crop, 1961-2002 Source: Calculated from data in FAOStat (2005), reproduced in Annex 1.

  6. Cereals and oilcrops are especially important for food quality Fig. 3. Share of protein output by crop, 1961-2002 Source: Calculated from data in FAOStat (2005), reproduced in Annex 1.

  7. There are huge catch-up opportunities for Africa to do what Asia did Figure 5. Average yield of all cereals by region, 1961-2004 Source: Figures 5-10 calculated from FAOStat (2005) data

  8. The catch-up opportunities are large in maize Figure 6. Average yield of maize by region, 1961-2004

  9. …but catch-up opportunities are big in small grains also! Figure 7. Average yield of millet by region, 1961-2004

  10. There are huge catch-up opportunities in cassava Figure 9. Average yield of cassava by region, 1961-2004

  11. and also catch-up opportunities in other root crops Figure 10. Average yield of other root crops by region, 1961-2004

  12. Africa has already done relatively well in cotton Figure 8. Average yield of seed cotton by region, 1961-2004

  13. Africa’s lag is mainly driven by the relatively low level of R&D spending Figure 11. Public agricultural R&D per unit of agricultural land, 1971-91 (1985 PPP dollars per hectare)

  14. There is huge variation but no growth in R&D expenditure across the region Figure 12. Agricultural R&D intensity in West and Central Africa, 1971-2001

  15. From Priority-Setting to Capacity Building Can build on experience of seven Sahel regional workshops (1994-2002) • all participants use common spreadsheet methods • formulas derived directly from graphical model • using each kind of data in sequence for intermediate results • with “open architecture” to facilitate adaptation • participants have access to small grants • to implement priority-setting exercises • to report their results at follow-on workshops

  16. Strategic Targeting for Economic Gains Results and methods are well-tested across West Africa