Five notable characteristics of contemporary world: Multiple stresses

1. Five notable characteristics of contemporary world: • Multiple stresses • Macro-perturbations of natural systems • Impending energy transition • Rising connectivity and complexity • Power shift

2. CONVERGENT STRESSES

3. OVERLOAD Stress _________ Coping capacity

4. CONVERGENCE and SYNERGY X Stresses X Overload X X

5. TECTONIC STRESSES Population growth Environmental damage x x Energy scarcity Overload x Climate change x Economic instability and inequality

6. Co-evolution of Society and Nature Nature nonlinear Society nonlinear Nonlinearity: Absence of simple proportionality between cause and effect

7. We need to shift from seeing the world as composed mainly of MACHINES to seeing it as composed mainly of COMPLEX SYSTEMS

8. Whereas MACHINES • can be taken apart, analyzed, and fully understood (they are no more than the sum of their parts) • exhibit “normal” or equilibrium patterns of behavior • show proportionality of cause and effect, and • can be managed because their behavior predictable. . .

9. COMPLEX SYTEMS • are more than the sum of their parts (they have emergent properties) • can flip from one pattern of behavior to another (they have multiple equilibriums) • show disproportionality of cause and effect (their behavior is often nonlinear, because of feedbacks and synergies), and • cannot be easily managed because their behavior is often unpredictable.

10. We’re moving from a world of RISK to a world of UNCERTAINTY (unknown unknowns)

11. So, we must move from “management” to Complex Adaptation

12. CLIMATE Positive feedbacks appear to be developing enormous force Changes in the Arctic appear to be occurring far faster than expected

13. “Palaeoclimate data show that the Earth’s climate is remarkably sensitive to global forcings. Positive feedbacks predominate. This allows the entire planet to be whipsawed between climate states. . . . Recent greenhouse gas emissions place the Earth perilously close to dramatic climate change that could run out of our control, with great dangers for humans and other creatures.” Hansen et al, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2007).

17. Battisti and Naylor, “Historical warnings of future food insecurity with unprecedented seasonal heat.” Science (9 January 2009): 240-44

18. Battisti and Naylor, “Historical warnings of future food insecurity with unprecedented seasonal heat.” Science (9 January 2009): 240-44

19. More rapid warming at poles One reason: Ice-albedo feedback Atmospheric warming radiative positive feedback, fast Increased ocean absorption of sun’s energy Melting of ice Lower reflectivity of ocean surface

20. 2008 4.52 mK2

23. “[The] climate change that takes place due to increases in carbon dioxide concentration is largely irreversible for 1,000 years after emissions stop. Following cessation of emissions, removal of atmospheric carbon dioxide decreases radiative forcing, but is largely compensated by slower loss of heat to the ocean, so that atmospheric temperatures do not drop significantly for at least 1,000 years. Among illustrative irreversible impacts that should be expected if atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations increase from current levels near 385 parts per million by volume (ppmv) to a peak of 450–600 ppmv over the coming century are dry-season rainfall reductions in several regions comparable to those of the ‘‘dust bowl’’ era and inexorable sea level rise.” Solomon et al, “Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions,” PNAS (February 10 2009).

25. VULNERABILITY OF THE GLOBAL FOOD SYSTEM China requires about 450 million tons of grain each year World grain trade is about 200 million tons An intervention by China on world grain markets for only 10 percent of its needs would absorb 25 percent of grain on world markets

26. WEAKENING OF EAST ASIAN MONSOON

28. IPCC 2007

29. (A) Forcings used to drive climate simulations. (B) Simulated and observed surface temperature change. Source: Earth's energy imbalance: Confirmation and implications. Science308, 1431, 2005.

30. ENERGY We are probably near peak global output of conventional oil Energy costs will continue to rise relative to other costs in coming years

33. Producing energy costs energy This principle is best understood through the concept of Energy Return on Investment (EROI)

35. 2006 2005 Trajectory of Global Fossil Fuel Emissions 50-year constant growth rates to 2050 B1 1.1%, A1B 1.7%, A2 1.8% A1FI 2.4% Observed 2000-2006 3.3% Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS

36. BRITTLENESS

38. Increased Risk of Cascading Failure As a result of tight coupling of nodes

40. ANOTHER RESPONSE: Increase system resilience RESILIENT people, institutions and societies . . . have the capability to withstand shock without catastrophic failure

41. In a complex, tightly connected world exhibiting increasingly frequent and severe system shock . . . the balance of economic and social investment should shift away from efficiency towards resilience.

42. POWER SHIFT Individuals and small groups are developing immense capacity to kill and destroy

44. In this new world, what should we do?

45. Coping with CarbonStrategies from conventional to radical(assuming a significant carbon price) • Efficiency and conservation • Renewables (GSHPs) • Coal with CCS and nuclear • Unconventional technologies (UCG, enhanced geothermal, stratospheric windmills) • Atmospheric carbon capture • Geoengineering • Shifting away from conventionally defined “growth”

46. GROWTH = SOLVENCY GROWTH = FREEDOM GROWTH = PEACE

47. Increase system resilience: RESILIENT people, institutions and societies . . . have the capability to withstand shock without catastrophic failure

48. Connectivity and Resilience Resilience Connectivity

49. FIVE PERCEPTUAL SHIFTS • to achieve the Prospective Mind • Systems: From MECHANICAL to COMPLEX • Self: From CONSUMER to PROBLEM • SOLVER • Values: From UTILITARIAN to MORAL and • EXISTENTIAL • Knowledge: From DISCIPLINARY to • INTEGRATED • Community: From NATIONAL, ETHNIC and • CULTURAL to GLOBAL