Register ProjectionsSchool Year 2009 – 2010 Principal’s Webcast Office of Student Enrollment Note: Register projection numbers presented in this document are for illustration purposes only.
Goals for the Webcast • What are the Goals of this Webcast? • The goals of this manual are to provide principals with: • An overview and timeline for the 2009-10 register projection process • An explanation of how Student Enrollment creates the initial register projections • Instructions on how to use the register projection website • Information on resources and support that will be available throughout the register projection process
Overview of the Register Projection Process and Timeline 2009-10 Register Projection Process and Timeline
What was involved in each step of the process so far? STEP 1: Student Enrollment shared preliminary projections data to Principals In December 2008, Student Enrollment provided preliminary information, including: Historical and current enrollment details Projected discharge, holdover, and articulation rates STEP 2: Student Enrollment met with Network Level Core Teams Student Enrollment met with Core Teams in December 2008 to prepare for the projections process. STEP 3: Student Enrollment collected feedback on initial data via Sharepoint Student Enrollment collected feedback on initial data from Dec15th – Jan 12thon Sharepoint. The purpose of the sharepoint site was to collect enrollment changes and concerns for 2009-10 Information came from Network Level Core Teams (in collaboration with Principals) Information also came from the offices of Portfolio Development and Finance and Administration This information was analyzed by Student Enrollment and incorporated into Initial Projections STEP 4: SESP application launched to ES/MS Principals The Special Education Student Projection (SESP) tool was available for ES/MS principals The purpose of the tool was to gather student level Special Ed projection information for 2009-10 Student Enrollment analyzed this information and used it to create the 2009-10 Projections STEP 5: Student Enrollment created 2009-10 Initial Projections Student Enrollment created 2009-10 initial enrollment projections for each school Projections were based on enrollment trends as well as information from sharepoint and SESP (see methodology section for more information) Overview of the Register Projection Process and Timeline (continued)
What is involved in each of the NEXT STEPS? STEP 1: Participate in a Webcast Webcasts will be available for Principals on February 24th and 25th. Principals will: Participate in a webcast to learn about the Projection Process and the Register Projection site OR listen to a recorded version of the webcast if they are unable to participate on the 24th or 25th. STEP 2: Review Initial Register Projections During this review period from February 23, 2009 – March 6, 2009, principals will: Review the historical enrollment information to help inform the review process Review the initial register projection for your school for 2009-2010 Discuss any questions or concerns with Network Level Core Team Decide if you agree or disagree with the projections and select one of two options: Agree that the figures are reasonable, or Submit a “Request for Review” of the initial projections STEP 3: Student Enrollment consults with Network Level Core Teams In March, Student Enrollment will meet with Core Team representatives to discuss “requests for review” Principals should discuss their enrollment concerns with Network Leaders STEP 4: Principal Certification of Final Register Projections During the week of April 6, 2009 to April 10, 2009: Student Enrollment will post the 2009-10 Final Register Projections Log-on to the Register Projection site to view and certify final 2009-10 register projections Overview of the Register Projection Process and Timeline (continued)
Projection Methodology • How does Student Enrollment create the Initial Projections? • Methodology for K-8 Gen Ed; High School Gen Ed and Special Ed • There are five key parts of the register projection: • 1. Current Students Returning: Based on historical data, we estimate the number of current students we expect will still be enrolled in each school on October 31, 2009. • 2. New Admits: We estimate the number of students who will be newly admitted for the 2009-10 school year who will be on the school register as of October 31, 2009. • 3. Gross Register Projection: The Gross Register Projection is the sum of the current students returning and new admits. • 4. LTA students: To estimate the number of LTA students, we assume the same LTA percentage by grade as in the October 31, 2008 audited register and apply that percentage to the projected gross register. • 5. Net Register Projection: Subtracting LTAs from the gross register projection gives the net register projection. Initial school budget allocations are based on this net register projection. 6
Projection Methodology (continued) • How does Student Enrollment project the Current Students Returning? • Student Enrollment begins with your current student population (as of 10/31/2008) • We then project how many of these students we expect will remain in your school for the 2009-10 school year • Student Enrollment analyzes the previous two years of enrollment data for your school and creates expected articulation, discharge and holdover rates of students • Rates are created across grade level and service category • Rates are applied to the current student population to determine how many current students Student Enrollment expects will remain in your school for 2009-10 • Students expected to remain in your school for the 2009-10 school year include articulating students and holdovers • We also incorporate an estimate for additional students admitted to each school through Over-The-Counter (OTC) admissions from November 1, 2008 to June 30, 2009 • This provides us with a projection for the number of Current Students Returning
Projection Methodology (continued) • How does Student Enrollment project the New Admits? • Student Enrollment uses the number of new students admitted to your school during the previous school year as a base for projecting the 2009-10 New Admits. • New Admits include students who will be newly admitted to your school between July 2, 2009 and October 31, 2009, and who will be on register on October 31, 2009. These students can be admitted in one of two ways: • List notice: List notice students due to articulation and/or through a choice process (e.g. High School Admissions Process (HSAPS)) • Over-The-Counter: OTC admits between July 2, 2009 and October 31, 2009 (including NCLB transfers) NOTE: NCLB seat targets are a portion of the projected number of OTC new admits. In the Spring, all schools listed as In Good Standing by the NY State Education Department will be contacted by the Office of Student Enrollment (NCLB PSC team) to review NCLB seat targets. Next week, schools will receive a memo about the upcoming Spring NCLB PSC program.
Projection Methodology (continued) • How does Student Enrollment calculate the Net Register Projection? • Initial school budget allocations are based on the Net Register Projection, which is the total number of students we project will be enrolled at your school on October 31, 2009, exclusive of LTA (Long Term Absence) students. • To determine the Net Register Projection, Student Enrollment begins by creating the Gross Register Projection for your school, which is inclusive of LTA students. • Gross Register Projection = Current Students Returning + New Admits • We then project the number of students we expect will become LTA students.To estimate the number of LTAs, we assume the same LTA percentage by grade as in the October 31, 2008 audited register and apply that percentage to the gross register projection. • Bysubtracting the projected LTAs from the gross register projection Student Enrollment creates the Net Register Projection. • Gross Register Projection – LTAs = Net Register Projection • .
Projection Methodology (continued) • How does Student Enrollment create Initial Enrollment Projections? • For the 2009-10 initial enrollment projections, Student Enrollment also took the following information into consideration when creating the initial projections: • Feedback from Executive Directors of Borough Enrollment • Feedback from Network Level Core Teams, shared via Sharepoint site • Feedback from Finance and Administration (F&A) and the Office of Portfolio Development (OPD) • . 10
Projection Methodology (Continued) • Methodology for K-8 Special Education projections • Students currently attending • The Special Education Student Projections tool (SESP) enabled Principals and other school personnel to project the number of classes needed in order to serve and meet the needs of all students currently attending. • SESP included data points reflecting: • Special education enrollment percentages for the school and district. • Initial referral rates for the school and district. • Information regarding recommendation trends and the number of students transferred due to a change in recommendation during the 2007-08 school year. • Classes for articulating students • Classes for students in articulating grades were projected and communicated to schools during the time provided for the SESP exercise, to the greatest extent possible. • Student Enrollment considered both zoning and enrollment percentages in determining where the classes are being projected. • Revisions • Time is built into the calendar to continue to refine and revise special education projections as the needs of students are monitored. 11
Using the Register Projection Site • How do I use the Register Projection Site? • The following slides will provide information on: • Logging on to the Register Projection Site • How to request access to the site (if you cannot log-on) • Description of each section of the site • How to submit a Request for Review • How to modify a previously submitted request • Register Projection website review periods • Certification of the Final Register Projections- *required*
A link to the Register Projection Website will be available on the Enrollment page on the Principals’ Portal (http://intranet.nycboe.net/DOEPortal/Principals/)Users may be prompted for a Username and password (this is same as the Outlook email account). Using the Register Projection Site (continued) • How do I access the Register Projection Website?
Using the Register Projection Site (continued) • How do I request access to the website if I cannot log on? • If you cannot log on to the Register Projections Site, please email Student Enrollment at email@example.com. • In your request, please include: • Name • Job Title • School District and Number (for school-based users)
Using the Register Projection Site (continued) • What will I see when I log-on to the site? • After a successful log-in, you will be directed to the RPS homepage. • Click the “View Projections” button. • On this page, you can also link to several Resources, including an Instruction Manual, a glossary of terms on the website, appeal review criteria, and a Register Projections Memorandum.
Using the Register Projection Site (continued) • What will I see when I click on “View Projections”? • Principals will be directed to the School Projection page. • The school page initially has six tabs (more details on the following pages): • 1. Initial Projections 4. Reference Information • 2. Historical Information 5. Space Data • 3. Current Population 6. View All MISC Empowerment Network 1.3 01 M 001 John Smith 52 Chambers Street, New York, NY 10007 212-374-6786
Using the Register Projection Site (continued) What information will be in the Initial Projections Tab? The Initial Projections Tab contains the initial 2009-10 enrollment projections by grade and by student type. It also contains information regarding the current Pre-K enrollment as well as the projected 2009-10 Pre-K enrollment.
Using the Register Projection Site (continued) What information will be in the Historical Information Tab? The Historical Information Tab contains a summary of school enrollment by grade for each of the past five years. This data is taken from the Net Audited Register for each year.
Using the Register Projection Site (continued) What information will be in the Current Population Tab? The Current Population Tab contains a summary of 2008 school enrollment by grade and student type. This data is taken from the 10/31/2008 Net Audited Register.
Using the Register Projection Site (continued) What information will be in the Reference Information Tab? The Reference Information Tab contains a summary of the methodology used by Student Enrollment to create the 2009-10 Initial Projections.
Using the Register Projection Site (continued) What information will be in the Space Data Tab? **NEW** The Space Data Tab contains information regarding the building usage for 2009-10. It also includes space and capacity information for the organization and building which is taken from the 2007-08 Blue Book and 2007-08 Room Survey.
Using the Register Projection Site (continued) What information will be in the View All Tab? The View All Tab will show all the data from the other five tabs in one tab so that you can view and print all the data at once.
Using the Register Projection Site (continued) How do I Respond to my Initial Projections? On the Initial Projections tab, see the buttons at the top right. MISC Empowerment Network 1.3 01 M 001 John Smith 52 Chambers Street, New York, NY 10007 212-374-6786
Using the Register Projection Site (continued) What do I do if I agree with my Initial Projections? Click the “Agree” button Then the Principal Review Status will change to “In Agreement”
Using the Register Projection Website (continued) What do I do if I want to Request a Review? Click the “Request a Review” button
Using the Register Projection Website (continued) A New “Principal Review” tab will open
Using the Register Projection Website (continued) What will the “Principal Review” tab allow me to do? On the top section of the Principal Review tab, users can enter comments and specify what type of comment they are entering. Select what type of comment you are entering (you can select more than one) Enter any comments that explain the requested changes to the register projection. NOTE: Please be as specific as possible in your comments. This will allow Student Enrollment to better understand the rationale for your request.
Using the Register Projection Website (continued) What will the “Principal Review” tab allow me to do? On the bottom section of the Principal Review tab, users can enter proposed changes in sections A –G for the school’s applicable grades. The “NET CHANGE from Initial Projections” shows the difference between the request for review and the Initial Projections After updating the figures, the “Save” button must clicked!
Using the Register Projection Website (continued) • How do I modify a Previously Submitted Request? • If a user wants to modify their request after already submitting a response, the following process should be followed: • Log-on to the site • 2. If you want to agree, but you previously requested a review, just click the “Agree” button at the top right. The “Principal Review” tab will no longer appear, and the Principal Review Status will change to “In Agreement” • If you want to request a review, but previously agreed, just click the “Request a Review” button at the top right. • Repeat steps highlighted in the previous slides to enter your changes. • * Modifications can be made from February 23, 2009 to March 6, 2009 • * After March 6, 2008 modifications WILL NOT be accepted
Using the Register Projection Website (continued) When does the principal review period close? What happens after that date? On March 6, 2009 the review period for principals will be closed. Users can still log on to the register projection site to view their Initial Projections and Requests for Review during this period, but they will no longer be able to make changes to their Request for Review. Beginning on March 6, 2009, Student Enrollment will review the principal appeals with Network Level Core teams and with other offices. During this time, the Site Status at the top right of the school’s projection page will be “In Final Review”
Using the Register Projection Website (continued) How do I view my Final Register Projections? On April 6, 2009 principals will receive an email from Student Enrollment stating that the Register Projections have been finalized. Principals will be instructed to access the Register Projections Website to certify that they have seen their FINAL register projections. Final Certification must be made by April 10, 2009. The Site Status will say “In Principal Certification” A Final Projections tab will now be visible. Click on the tab to see your final projections.
Using the Register Projection Website (continued) What is the next step to Certify my Final Register Projections? Once you have seen your Final Projections, click the purple “Approve” button at the top right of the screen to certify that you have seen your Final Projections. Once the projections are certified, the Principal Certification Status will say “Finalized”
Resources and Support for Principals • What Resources and Support are available as I complete this process? • Resources are available on the website, including a copy of this presentation, a glossary of terms, and a register projection process memorandum, which you can refer to as you complete the process. Staff from the Office of Student Enrollment and your Network Level Core Team will also be available to assist you with any questions or concerns. • Network Level Core Team staff can assist you with: • Questions concerning how to use the register projection website • All follow-ups for a “Request for Review” • Technical problems such as logging on the DOE intranet, should be directed to the DOE Help Desk (718-935-5100) • If you have problems accessing the Register Projections Site or questions regarding your school’s historical or projected enrollment data, they should be directed to the Office ofStudent Enrollment by email at Projections@schools.nyc.gov
Final Review of Important Dates • Review of the Important Dates: • February 23, 2009 – March 6, 2009 • Register Projection website opens to principals February 23, 2008 • Principals will have two weeks to complete their review of the initial register projections • March 6, 2009 • *Last date for principals to submit initial register projection appeals* • April 6, 2009– April 10, 2009 • Final projections posted on the Register Projection website • Principals log back on to website to certify their final register projection