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Understanding Basic Weather Forecasting: Key Concepts and Guidelines

Dive into the essentials of weather forecasting with this comprehensive guide from Penn State. Learn about crucial factors such as temperature changes, cloud cover, precipitation patterns, and the role of wind and fronts. This resource covers basic forecasting guidelines and techniques, including climatology and various models used in meteorology. Discover how to interpret weather data from sources like satellites and radar, and understand the dynamics of thunderstorms and moisture convection. Whether you're a novice or looking to sharpen your skills, this guide offers valuable insights.

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Understanding Basic Weather Forecasting: Key Concepts and Guidelines

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  1. Penn State Weather Camps Basic Weather Forecasting Guidelines

  2. Know what to expect! = Climo.

  3. Deluge Part Dos (2014)! • Deluge Part Uno (2013)! Welcome To Penn State! And the Heavens cried …. rain!whilst the lightning bolts came

  4. What causes temperature to change? • Cloud cover: • Day Vs. Night • Precipitation: • When it rains T’s tend to be higher/lower? Why? • Windand Fronts: • Direction • N vs. S • Speed • Day Vs. Night Basic Forecast Guidelines

  5. What causes rain? • Need clouds! • Will any ole cloud do? • Moisture supply • Bodies of water – Moisture content of air • Upward motion: • How does this affect clouds/precip.? • Mechanisms for “lift” • Fronts – Topography – Low Pressure – Jet stream dist. • (In) stability: • Warm down low … cold up high! Basic Forecast Guidelines

  6. Climatology Forecast = averages for today • PersistenceForecast = yesterday’s values • Extrapolation/trend Forecast = Look upstream to see what the wind’s bringing in ! • Satellite IR - Satellite VIS - Radar - sfc. map 1 - sfc. map 2 • Thunderstorms/Moist Convection • Triggers ? • Fuel • LI • Cape Basic Forecast Guidelines

  7. The “Models” • Simulate future state of atmosphere • Higher resolution / lower resolution • The “Models” • Lower Res. (GFS) • Higher Res. (NAM) • Higher Res. (HRRR) Basic Forecast Guidelines

  8. Your competition !!! • The National Weather Service • The Weather Channel • Accuweather • The guy or gal to your left and right 

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