Hubbert Curve By Kathleen Montz , Seth Johnston, Christopher Kemple
Who is Hubbert? • Marion King Hubbert • Born October 5 2009 • Attended University of Chicago • Studied Math, Geology, and Physics
Hubbert’s experience • Worked for Shell oil for 21 years • USGS researcher for 12 years • Professor at Stanford and UC Berkeley
Hubbert’s Novel Idea cont. • 1956 • Hubbert Curve • Predicted peak level of oil production worldwide
Timeline of Hubbert Curve • Production at time of prediction ~5 gigabarrels • Worldwide oil production peaks at 12 gigabarrels in 2005 • Predicts future discoveries of 910 gigabarrels
Hubbert Curve Uses • Can be applied regionally, nationally, and globally • Can be used to determined production potential by oil companies
Uses cont. • Can also be used for other fossil fuels • Coal
Peak Oil • The amount of oil on Earth is finite and the demand for oil has drastically increased in the past 50 years. • The rate of oil production has grown almost every year for the past century.
Peak Oil • Peak oil is often misinterpret red to mean that the oil supply is completely exhausted. • The real definition is that peak oil occurs when about half the worlds oil reserves have been used up. • This is the transition from a buyers’ market to a sellers’ market.
Why Does Peak Oil Occur? • Oil companies will extract the easy to reach oil first because it costs less to get to. • Oil closer to the surface has less sulfur content and is thus easier to refine. • Once this oil runs out more difficult oil nodes must be tapped.
Why Does Peak Oil Occur? • When the oil becomes difficult to reach the viability of the oil field drops. • If it takes the energy of a barrel of oil to extract a barrel of oil then further extraction is useless.
1956 predicted oil peak in U.S. in 1970 Prediction for 2005: 178.2 Gb cumulative 1.17 Gb current production In 1970 U.S. oil production peaked Actual in 2005: 176.4 Gb cumulative 1.55 Gb current production Evidence Predictions Actual
Evidence… 1970 File:Hubbert US high.svg - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Not everyone agrees • Exponential growth and decline for large populations • Leonardo Maugeri , VP of Italian co. ENI • Recovery rate of oil fields • 22% in 1980 • 35% today
Alfred J. Cavallo • Hubbert's theory is incorrect for world production • Cambridge Energy Research Associates • The curve does not work with all countries • Predicts a plateau before decline
Expected Date • Experts do not agree on the expected date for world peak oil. • Some say that it has recently occurred, some say that it will occur shortly, and some say that a plateau of oil production could sustain the world for up to 100 years.
Shell Major oil company; 2025 or later Goodstein, D. Vice Provost, Cal Tech; before 2010 Experts prediction on peak • Campbell, C.J. Oil company geologist; 2010 • Laherrere, J. Oil company geologist; 2010-2020 • CERA Energy consultants; after 2020
U.S. Impact • Peak in U.S. has already occurred • U.S. relies heavily on foreign countries. • Are subject to the whims of OPEC • Can cause a recession if oil prices become too high • Will cause a shit towards more fuel efficient transportation more than in other countries.
Global Impact • Peak oil can cause worldwide depression • Will force people to change the way they live • Will force countries to reduce exports faster than they reduce their production. • Global warming decrease
Preparedness • Most of the countries are not prepared • Use oil as if it was never going to run out • Slowly getting more prepared
Education • Most people are somewhat informed • People overall are coming to the realization that oil is going to run out • There are still some that are ignorant of the facts