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From Smooth Sailing to A Perfect Storm

From Smooth Sailing to A Perfect Storm. David Longanecker Executive Director Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE). Education Writers Association National Seminar Community Colleges—What Are They Worth Los Angeles, California May 5, 2007.

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From Smooth Sailing to A Perfect Storm

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  1. From Smooth Sailing to A Perfect Storm David LonganeckerExecutive DirectorWestern Interstate Commission for Higher Education(WICHE) Education Writers Association National Seminar Community Colleges—What Are They WorthLos Angeles, CaliforniaMay 5, 2007 The American Community College Story

  2. Smooth Sailing through fifty years • Commanding an increasing share of the higher education market • 1970: 25% of enrollment/9% of degrees • 1990: 36% of enrollment/9% of degrees • 2004: 36% of enrollment/11% of degrees • Serving numerous “community” needs • And doing so inexpensively

  3. Smooth Sailing through fifty years • Serving numerous “community” needs • Academic Transfer • 60% of California Students • 55% of CSU Grads; 28% of UC Grads • Workforce Development • Up to 50% of Associate Degrees • Other credentials (certificates and diplomas) • Customized Training Programs • Enrichment

  4. Smooth Sailing through fifty years • And doing so inexpensively Instruction Costs Per FTE California U.S. Research Extensive $20,338 $12,920 Masters I $9,428 $8,949 Community Colleges $7,073 $7,417 Source: SHEEO – SHEF from IPEDS

  5. Consequences of Smooth Sailing • Community Colleges Appear • Responsive to Community Needs • Nimble enough to change • Inexpensive • Non-arrogant • The Result – the Darling of Political Leaders

  6. The Perfect Storm • Demand likely to exceed supply • The nature of the demand increasing the difficulty of accomplishing the task • Limited financial capacity to respond

  7. The Perfect Storm—The Demand Wave • Higher Ed’s Aberrant Behavior on Supply & Demand • Mission • Cost of Expansion • Quest for Prestige • Community Colleges Expected to Provide the Relief on Supply. • Impact varies greatly throughout the U.S. • Extreme in Southwest; virtually nonexistent in Northeast and Midwest

  8. The Perfect Storm—The Increasingly Difficult Clientele to Serve • An Increasing Share from Communities Higher Education Has Not Well Served in the Past • From Majority to Minority High School Grads • West in 2007-2008 • South in 2017-2018 • In Next Decade • 200,000 fewer White H.S. Grads in U.S. • 200,000 more Hispanic H.S. Grads • More likely to attend Community Colleges • Less likely to progress to success

  9. The Perfect Storm—The Increasingly Difficult Clientele to Serve • 61% Need Some Remediation – Many Never Progress Beyond Remediation • Lots of Noise Around Graduation Statistics: • Nancy Shulock • 24% of degree seekers complete in 4 years • Only 18% for Latino Students • You do the math: (04-05 statistics) • 118,419 cert., diploma, or deg in CA CCs • 1,390,993 students enrolled

  10. The Perfect Storm—The Financing Dilemma • Inexpensive or Cheap • On Price • Low Tuition & Fees (06-07) • U.S. Average: $2,272 • California: $690 • But Tuition Is Only Part of the Story • Zumeta Total Student Budget (FT, Dependent) • U.S. minus California: $9,884 • California: $9,224

  11. The Perfect Storm—The Financing Dilemma Zumeta on Capacity to Pay Dependent 10th % 50th % US minus CA $15,554 $53,120 California 9,084 49,805 Independent US minus CA $ 4,350 $27,291 California 2,990 $29,013

  12. The Perfect Storm—The Financing Dilemma • On Cost • Average Funding for Instruction per FTE (U.S.) • Community Colleges $7,417 • Bachelors Colleges 8,423 • CA Community Col. 7,073 • How do you serve well the most difficult to serve clientele with fewer resources.

  13. The Perfect Storm -- Show Me The Money State and local surplus or shortfall as a percent of baseline revenues NH DE NJ ME MD MA WI VT OH ND CT KS AR VA NE OK MN CO WV KY MI AZ NY GA HI IL PA AK RI US MT UT NM CA IA IN NC FL ID SC SD MO WA OR TX NV TN MS LA AL WY 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12 -14 Source: National Center for Higher Education Management Systems (NCHEMS)

  14. Policy Impact on the Perfect Storm-- Riding the Waves back to Calm Waters • Preparation --The High School to College Disconnect • High School Exit Standards & College Entrance Requirements Are Not Aligned --The Impact of Local Control • Evidence: The Bridges Project @ Stanford – Mike Kirst • Some promising new practice • The CSU alignment project • The federal State Scholars Initiative - the value/imperative of a rigorous curriculum • Blended financial aid programs

  15. Policy Impact on the Perfect Storm-- Riding the Waves back to Calm Waters • Preparation --The High School to College Disconnect • Bottlenecks in the Pipeline • Blockages within the Community Colleges • Evidence: The Equity Scorecard – USC/Estela Bensimon • 2yr to 4yr: Articulation • A Mixed Story • Evidence: Jane Wellman’s excellent work – policy matters.

  16. Policy Impact on the Perfect Storm-- Riding the Waves back to Calm Waters • Preparation --The High School to College Disconnect • Bottlenecks in the Pipeline • Finance Policies • Tradition • Low Price is trademark • But low price yields low resources • Also leaves substantial money on the table • From feds • From well resourced students

  17. Surviving the Perfect Storm that Community Colleges Face • It’s possible • But not by steering the current course

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