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The Republican Primaries

The Republican Primaries. Office Hours. When Today- 11-2 Wednesday 10-2 Doyle 226B. Learning Outcomes . Analyze the theories of why people vote and apply them to the 2012 Election. Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral process .

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The Republican Primaries

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  1. The Republican Primaries

  2. Office Hours • When • Today- 11-2 • Wednesday 10-2 • Doyle 226B

  3. Learning Outcomes • Analyze the theories of why people vote and apply them to the 2012 Election. • Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral process

  4. Rules of the Nominating Game Just Like Vegas, Never play a game you don’t know how to play

  5. Rules of the Game: Frontloading • The movement of state primaries and caucuses earlier and earlier in the campaign season • The Impact of Frontloading

  6. Money goes to winners Media Coverage goes to winners Why early wins are important

  7. Be the last person standing • Build upon early wins • Force your opponents to drop out

  8. John McCain and the Republicans The lessons of 2008

  9. Delegate Apportionment in 2008 The Democrats The Republicans Fewer Delegates More winner-take-all states • More Delegates • Proportional Representation • Super Delegates

  10. The Advantage of the Long Democratic Campaign for Obama • Scrutiny • Kept him in the News • Tested his leadership • Made the party enthusiastic

  11. How Mc Cain Wins Early: 2008 • Winner-take-all states • The Early win is A blessing and a curse for McCain

  12. Benefits of the Early McCain Victory • Cost savings • Refocus Campaign Strategy • Avoids additional party infighting

  13. Costs of the McCain victory • Never shores up the Evangelicals • Too reliant on unreliable independents • Out of the news for 5 months

  14. The Democratic Nomination

  15. Obama Wins! • No serious challenger • He could focus on being President • He didn’t have to spend money

  16. The 2012 Republican Nomination

  17. Frontloading and 2012 • Take a Page from the Democratic Playbook • The GOP require more states use proportional representation • Punish early movers • They did not want an early nominee.

  18. Advantages And Disadvantages of a Long Primary Advantage Disadvantage

  19. Frontloading and 2012

  20. The First Four in 2012 • Iowa • New Hampshire • South Carolina • Florida

  21. These Rules Were Intended to Extend the Nomination, which it did…. But it also brought unintended consequences!

  22. Iowa and new Hampshire

  23. Frontloading: Iowa and NH • Traditionally the first caucus and primary • Both states have resisted changing their dates • States were punished for moving up too close

  24. Frontloading: NH and IA • Not essential, but helpful for victory • Criticisms of these states

  25. Iowa: The Results

  26. Iowa part II • The Original Results • Romney Does better than expected

  27. Perry Falters • Broke • 5th place • Doesn’t know what to do

  28. Romney Has Momentum • Looking like a winner and Actually winning • Media coverage goes to those who can win. • Moves to New Hampshire

  29. New Hampshire

  30. The New Hampshire Results • Romney wins easily • Huntsman drops out • Ron Paul comes in 3rd • Santorum didn’t campaign hard there

  31. Florida and South Carolina The South

  32. South Carolina

  33. South Carolina • The Return of Newt Gingrich • The End of Rick Perry • A state where Romney has never done well

  34. Romney after South Carolina • A Wasp Funeral • Go After Gingrich….Hard • Paint Gingrich as a corrupt insider

  35. Florida • Winner-Take-All • Romney wins an Important Battleground State

  36. Super Tuesday

  37. What Was at Stake • 10 States • More than 400 Delegates • 21 states and 800+ delegates in 2008

  38. Romney is in Trouble • All negative campaign • Outspending opponents • His message was wearing thin • Likeability Problem

  39. The Return of Santorum • Hard Work • Culture War • Still a flawed Candidate (he always took the bait)

  40. Not the Game Changer This in 2008 To This in 2012

  41. Romney wins 6 • Santorum wins 3 • Gingrich wins 1 • Ron Paul will never quit

  42. The Delegate Count

  43. Super Tuesday

  44. The End of the Line Why Romney Won

  45. For Newt and Rick • I probably will not be the candidate • Does beating up Romney serve any purpose?

  46. The End • Santorum is Done on April 10 • Gingrich on May 2nd • Ron Paul Finally quits on May 22 • Romney Clinches on June 5th

  47. Its over

  48. Why Romney Won • It was built to last through superior funding • Essentially error free • Lack of infighting and scandal • Followed the Atwater Rule

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