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Impact of Hurricanes Edouard and Ike on ERCOT Load

Impact of Hurricanes Edouard and Ike on ERCOT Load. Methodology. Extracted the LSEGUFE cuts for the most recent settlement January 1, 2006 – October 11, 2008 Summed cuts by Profile Type and WZone

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Impact of Hurricanes Edouard and Ike on ERCOT Load

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  1. Impact of Hurricanes Edouard and Ike on ERCOT Load

  2. Methodology • Extracted the LSEGUFE cuts for the most recent settlement • January 1, 2006 – October 11, 2008 • Summed cuts by Profile Type and WZone • Estimated models for each PT and WZ based on Channel 4 or higher settlement cuts (1-1-07 to 8-23-08) • Generated model est. at the PT & WZ level up thru 10-11-08 • Summed estimates to the ERCOT total load level • Compared summed estimates to GTOTUFE

  3. Model Statistics • Stats at the Total Load Level: • R-Square - .986 • MAPE – 2.1% • MAD – 180 MWh • Stats for IDR Coast Model: • R-Square - .891 • MAPE – 2.65% • MAD – 31 MWh • Stats for IDR Non Coast Model: • R-Square - .969 • MAPE – 2.61% • MAD – 92 MWh • Stats for NIDR Total Model: • R-Square - .989 • MAPE – 2.49 % • MAD – 97 MWh Coast NIDR model would not be informative since standard profiles do not reflect hurricane related reductions

  4. Edouard Impact

  5. Model Actual MW Diff ERCOT Load - Week Before Edouard July 27 – August 2, 2008 MW

  6. Model Actual MW Diff ERCOT Load - Week of Edouard August 3 – August 9, 2008 MW Model Peak 8-4-08 16:45 Peak diff 1,682 MW (2.7%) Daily diff 11.0 GWH (1.0%)

  7. Model Actual MW Diff ERCOT Load - Week After Edouard August 10 – August 16, 2008 MW

  8. Model Actual MW Diff IDR Coast Load - Week Before Edouard July 27 – August 2, 2008 MW

  9. Model Actual MW Diff IDR Coast Load - Week of Edouard August 3 – August 9, 2008 MW Model Peak 8-4-08 16:45 Peak diff 529 MW (10.4%) Daily diff 5.8 GWH (4.8%)

  10. Model Actual MW Diff IDR Coast Load - Week After of Edouard August 10 – August 16, 2008 MW

  11. Model Actual MW Diff IDR Non Coast Load - Week Before Edouard July 27 – August 2, 2008 MW

  12. Model Actual MW Diff IDR Non Coast Load - Week of Edouard August 3 – August 9, 2008 MW Model Peak 8-4-08 16:45 Peak diff 490 MW (2.1%) Daily diff 2.9 GWH (0.6%)

  13. Model Actual MW Diff IDR Non Coast Load - Week After Edouard August 10 – August 16, 2008 MW

  14. Non IDR Load - Week Before Edouard July 27 – August 2, 2008 Model Actual MW Diff MW

  15. Non IDR Load - Week Of Edouard August 3 – August 9, 2008 Model Actual MW Diff MW Model Peak 8-4-08 16:45 Peak diff 662 MW (1.9%) Daily diff 2.3 GWH (0.4%) NIDR Coast load reduction possible but not quantifiable

  16. Model Actual MW Diff Non IDR Load - Week After Edouard August 10 – August 16, 2008 MW

  17. ERCOT IDR Coast IDR NonCoast NIDR Percent Differences - Week Before Edouard July 27 – August 2, 2008 PERCENT

  18. ERCOT IDR Coast IDR NonCoast NIDR Percent Differences - Week Of Edouard August 3 – August 9, 2008 PERCENT Peak Day IDR COAST had largest difference of 21% on 8/5/08 and returned to predicted level on 8/8/08

  19. ERCOT IDR Coast IDR NonCoast NIDR Percent Differences - Week After Edouard August 10 – August 16, 2008 PERCENT

  20. Edouard Conclusions • Ercot Load at model peak (8-4-08 16:45) was reduced by about 1,682 MW as a result of Hurricane Edouard • IDR Coast: 529 MW • IDR NonCoast: 490 MW • NIDR: 662 MW • Ercot Actual Load returned to predicted load levels on 8-6-08 • IDR Coast actual load returned to predicted load levels on 8-8-08 • Total Ercot energy reduction about 23.1GWH as a result of Hurricane Edouard

  21. Ike Impact

  22. Model Actual MW Diff ERCOT Load - Week before Ike August 31 – September 6, 2008 MW

  23. Model Actual MW Diff ERCOT Load – Ike Begins September 7 – September 13, 2008 MW Week diff. 368.4 GWH (10.0%)

  24. ERCOT Load – Ike Restoration September 14 – September 20, 2008 Model Actual MW Diff MW Week diff. 715.9 GWH (14.6%)

  25. ERCOT Load - Ike Restoration Concludes September 21 – September 27, 2008 Model Actual MW Diff MW Week diff. 293.8 GWH (5.0%)

  26. ERCOT Load - Week After Ike Restoration September 28 – October 4, 2008 Model Actual MW Diff MW

  27. 1,378 Total GWh lost due to Ike • Largest 1-Day loss: 206 GWh on 9-13-08 • Largest 1-Interval loss: 10,716 MW on 9-13-08 17:45

  28. For the 1-1-08 – 9-28-08 time period 1,000 GWh below Forecast (0.4%) • For the 9-1-08 – 9-28-08 time period 0.9 GWh above Forecast (0.04%)

  29. Ike Conclusions • Ercot Load was reduced across the 9-10-08 to 9-28-08 time period by about 1,378 GWH as a result of Hurricane Ike • Largest 1-Day loss: • 206 GWH on 9-13-08 • Ercot GWH load for the 1-1-08 to 9-28-08 time period is 0.4% under forecast in spite of hurricane impacts

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