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Evaluation of CFSv2 Monthly Mean Forecast Skill for December 2010 Using Historical Data

This document presents an assessment of the CFSv2 monthly mean forecast skill for December 2010. The analysis utilizes hindcast data spanning from 1982 to 2009, initiated from the 1st of January with forecasts every 5 days. Skill evaluations include correlation and RMS error metrics focusing on variables such as Sea Surface Temperature (SST), precipitation (Prec), and surface temperatures at 2m (T2m) and at atmospheric pressure levels (z200, z700). Observational data from OIv2 and CPC analyses are integrated to enhance the reliability of results.

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Evaluation of CFSv2 Monthly Mean Forecast Skill for December 2010 Using Historical Data

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  1. CFSv2 monthly mean forecast skill December, 2010

  2. Forecast and observation data • Forecast: • CFSv2 monthly mean hindcast 1982-2009; • Forecasts are initiated from every 5th day starting from January 1st of each year. • 4 members at each initial day; • Definition of lead time in analysis • 0-day-lead  the earliest available initial day in the target month; • 5-day-lead  the latest available initial day in the month before the target month; • 10-day-lead  the second latest available initial day in the month before target month; • 15-day-lead  the third latest available initial day in the month before target month; • Variables: • SST, Prec, T2m, z200, z700 • Monthly anomalies are based on 1982-2009 climatology. • Obersevation: • OIv2 SST; • CPC CAMS-OPI monthly precipitation analysis; • CPC GHCN monthly land surface temperature analysis; • CFSr z200 and z700 • Statistic skill: • Correlation and RMS error;

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