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Model Thinking

Model Thinking. Scott E Page. Behavioral Models. Observation Neurology. Behavioral Models. Examples. Prospect Theory Hyperbolic Discounting Status Quo Bias Base Rate Bias. Prospect Theory. A: $400 for sure B: $1000 50% $0 50%. Prospect Theory. A: -$400

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Model Thinking

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  1. Model Thinking Scott E Page

  2. Behavioral Models

  3. Observation Neurology Behavioral Models

  4. Examples • Prospect Theory • Hyperbolic Discounting • Status Quo Bias • Base Rate Bias

  5. Prospect Theory A: $400 for sure B: $1000 50% $0 50%

  6. Prospect Theory A: -$400 B: -$1000 50% $0 50%

  7. Hyperbolic Discounting Option A: $1000 today Option B: $1005 tomorrow

  8. Hyperbolic Discounting Option A: $1000 in a year Option B: $1005 in a year and a day

  9. www.freeimageslive.com

  10. Status Quo Bias Check box to contribute to pension fund Check box to NOT contribute to pension fund

  11. www.freeimageslive.com

  12. Base Rate Bias

  13. Lots of Biases • WEIRD • People Learn • Computationally difficult

  14. Model Thinking Scott E Page

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