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Model Thinking

Model Thinking. Scott E Page. Two “Proofs”. Polya. U = {1 Blue, 1 Red} Select and return Add a new ball that is the same color as the ball selected. Polya in Action. Result 2: Any history of B blue and R red balls is equally likely. P(RBBB) = P(BBBR) = . P(RBRB ) =

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Model Thinking

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  1. Model Thinking Scott E Page

  2. Two “Proofs”

  3. Polya U = {1 Blue, 1 Red} Select and return Add a new ball that is the same color as the ball selected

  4. Polya in Action

  5. Result 2: Any history of B blue and R red balls is equally likely

  6. P(RBBB) = P(BBBR) =

  7. P(RBRB) = P(BBRR) =

  8. Result 1: Any probability of red balls is an equilibrium and equally likely.

  9. P(BBBB) = P(BBBR) =

  10. P(50B) = P(49B 1R) = P(47B 3R) =

  11. Result 1: Any probability of red balls is an equilibrium and equally likely.

  12. Result 2: Any history of B blue and R red balls is equally likely

  13. Model Thinking Scott E Page

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