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Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution. Task Force on Integrated Assessment Modelling 40 th meeting – May 2011, Oslo EECCA-workshop – June 2011, Laxenburg. UNITED NATIONS ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR EUROPE.
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Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution Task Force on Integrated Assessment Modelling 40th meeting – May 2011, Oslo EECCA-workshop – June 2011, Laxenburg UNITED NATIONS ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR EUROPE
Revision Gothenburg Protocol Time schedule TFIAM 2010 Feb: Baseline proposal May: Analyses of targets options Nov: Sensitivity analysis 2011 Jan/Feb: Scenario runs May: Final runs Dec: Report (with WGE) WGSR 2010 Apr: Baseline accepted Sept: Guidance on targets Dec(EB): Guidance on targets 2011 April: Ambition level Sept: Proposed Protocol Dec(EB): Final Protocol text
Workplan items 2010/2011 • Baseline development • Target setting options • Ex-post impact analysis with WGE • Analysis of impacts of draft technical annexes • Contributions to reports on air & climate linkages • 2030/2050 aspirations ?? • Uncertainty management/flexible mechanisms • Exchange of national experiences (with NIAM)
TFIAM 40, etc • Check on feasibility ambition levels based on national data • Further data exchange between May-August • Special workshop for EECCA and SEE countries in June
Harmonisation 2005 data • All emission estimates based on fuel sold • Real life vehicle emissions form Copert included for all countries • Some sources excluded for all countries: e.g. NOx from agricultural soil, VOC from crops
Remaining uncertainties • PM2.5 emission factors used for domestic wood burning show a large variety uncertainty prevails • Finnish ‘black liquor’ use not included in PRIMES/GAINS • Russian “PEMA” no emission data received yet
Ambition levels for Europe: trade-off between costs and impacts
LOW-MID-HIGH-MTFR Each step = • ~ 10.000 live years gained • ~ € 2 billion saved due to less absence • ~ 20.000 km2 protected from acidification • ~150.000 km2 protected from eutrophication • But at increasing costs What choice to make?
Technical attainability ambition levels Spread between BL and HIGH Average ~ LOW-MID
Joint TFIAM/WGE background report • Background info to revised protocol • Description of scenario assumptions • Tables with data per country: emission obligations & expected impacts (ex-post) • Maps for Europe: where do we expect the benefits and remaining problems? useful for review & implementation problems
Joint TFIAM/WGE background report • Activity trends and future scenario 1990-2020 1. GDP 2. Energy 3. Transport 4. Agriculture • Key measures • Emissions (BL, Protocol, …, MTFR) • Air quality and deposition • Impacts 1. Yolls 2. Acidification 3. Eutrophication 4. Ozone deaths 5. Ozone damage to vegetation 6. Damage to materials 7. R-Forcing • Costs and benefits • Long term prospects
Recent findings • The UNEP/WMO assessment showed global benefits of abatement of black carbon and methane for climate, health and ecosystems • TF Health confirmed the association between health risks and black carbon exposure. • However, the non-black carbon part of PM2.5 still caused the major part of the health effects attributed to particulate matter
Next meetings • Workshop with TFHAP on global emission projections, Early 2012, Laxenburg • TFIAM41 - May 2012 – Rome? • Unless …………..
Recommendations for Annex II • Take MID-data from CIAM 2011/4 report as starting point for negotiations (red) • For countries not in GAINS use CEIP-data for 2005-2009(Italics)
