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Convention on Long-range Trans-boundary Air Pollution

Convention on Long-range Trans-boundary Air Pollution. Task Force on Integrated Assessment Modelling 37 th meeting Geneva, 22 −24 February 2010 Only a technical report on: http://gains.iiasa.ac.at/index.php/tfiam. UNITED NATIONS ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR EUROPE.

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Convention on Long-range Trans-boundary Air Pollution

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  1. Convention on Long-range Trans-boundary Air Pollution Task Force on Integrated Assessment Modelling 37th meeting Geneva, 22−24 February 2010 Only a technical report on: http://gains.iiasa.ac.at/index.php/tfiam UNITED NATIONS ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR EUROPE

  2. Workplan items 2010/2011 • Baseline development • Target setting options • Ex-post impact analysis with WGE • Analysis of impacts of draft technical annexes • Contributions to reports on air & climate linkages • 2030/2050 aspirations • Uncertainty management/flexible mechanisms • Exchange of national experiences (with NIAM)

  3. Time schedule TFIAM 2010 Feb: Baseline proposal May: Analyses of targets options Oct: Sensitivity analysis incl. climate forcing 2011 Jan/Feb: Scenario runs May: Final runs Oct: Report WGSR 2010 Apr: Baseline accepted Sept: Guidance on targets Dec(EB): Guidance on targets 2011 April: Draft Protocol Sept: Final Protocol Dec(EB): Protocol adopted

  4. Inevitable uncertainties • What will be the future climate policy? • What will be the effect of the economic crisis? • We cannot wait until the future becomes clear? • What to do to start negotiations in 2010? The baseline is a means, not a goal

  5. EECCA - countries • No official national baselines submitted • Available for baseline: IEA - WEO 2009; FAO 2003 • For EECCA-countries assumptions on the implementation of current legislation are more important than assumptions on economic projections. • Proposal: • Use conservative assumptions on CLE in the IEA/FAO baseline • Analyse effects of additional measures (implementation of technical annexes)

  6. Other non-EU countries • Norway & Switzerland: only national projections 2009, including climate policy, available • Croatia: choice between PRIMES 2009 or national projection 2009 • Macedonia & Turkey: PRIMES 2009

  7. EU27 • PRIMES 2009 for all countries, including the economic crisis, climate/energy measures & ELV-legislation 2009 • 12 national baseline projections have been submitted • Baseline assumptions will first of all affect the costs of an abatement strategy, but can also affect the distribution of efforts. • National baselines show a large variety in assumptions on economic growth, oil- and carbon prices and domestic climate policy. • If used in the negotiations such inconsistencies would distort the distribution of policy efforts over countries!

  8. Baseline for EU27 • Further efforts to improve the available baselines would not reduce basic uncertainties in future economic developments and climate and energy policies, but only delay the revision of the Protocol. • The PRIMES 2009 baseline provides a coherent perspective comprising current legislation on air, climate and energy measures, although some countries have different expectations on future national energy and climate policies. • Still the PRIMES 2009 baseline would offer a more equal starting point for defining further measures than the national baselines.

  9. TFIAM37 advice • Most experts agreed to use the PRIMES 2009 baseline as the basis for analysis of further policy options • In view of the uncertainties, more than one baseline is to be used • The national baseline scenario combined with PRIMES 2008 is the only available proxy for a scenario with higher growth assumptions and could be used to assess the sensitivity and attainability of emissions ceilings • Analyse further how uncertainties could be reflected in policy through flexibility mechanisms • Not only focus on 2020, but to make full use of the 2030 data provided by PRIMES 2009 and the World Energy Outlook

  10. So, Does WGSR agree to proceed with the proposed baseline and use this to further assess abatement strategies?

  11. Other notions • Several experts expressed concerns about the unavailability and lack of transparency of PRIMES data and problems in providing feedback on preliminary PRIMES results. However, it was noted that a stakeholder consultation process was organized between the PRIMES modellers • The Task Force noted that for Euro IV/V heavy duty vehicles real emissions could be higher than the current scenario assumptions. The latter were based on emission factors during the test cycle.

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