Module 6: Extreme weather

1. Module 6: Extreme weather

2. Key messages in Module 6 • Climate change is leading to changes in the frequency & intensity of many extreme weather & climate events • Asia & the Pacific are particularly vulnerable to extreme events • There are a wide range of health risks of extreme events in the region • Public health & disaster risk management policies & measures can increase resilience to current & future health risks

3. Module 6 outline 1 2 4 5 3 6 Extreme weather in Asia Pacific Worldwide trends in hazards Sources of vulnerability Disaster risk management Health risks from extreme weather Public health risks

4. 1 Introduction: Understanding the health risks from extreme weather & climate events

5. A changing climate leads to changes in extreme weather &climate events Source: IPCC (2012)

6. Impacts from weather & climate events depend on: Nature & severity of event Vulnerability: the predisposition of a person or group to be adversely affected Exposure Source: IPCC (2012)

7. 2 Worldwide trends in hazards

8. Loss events worldwide in 2013 Source: Munchener Ruckversicherungs-Gesellschaft (2014)

9. Top 10 natural disasters by number of victims Source: EM-DAT (2012)

10. Percent share of reported victims by disaster sub-group & continent in 2012 Source: EM-DAT (2012) Meteorological= storm Climatological= extreme temperature, drought, wildfire Hydrological= flood

11. Fatalities are higher in developing countries From 1970-2008, over 95% of natural-disaster-related deaths occurred in developing countries Source: IPCC (2012)

12. Natural catastrophes worldwide 1980 – 2012 (No. of events) Source: Munchener Ruckversicherungs-Gesellschaft (2014)

13. Loss events worldwide 2013 vs. 1980 - 2012 Source: Munchener Ruckversicherungs-Gesellschaft (2014)

14. Loss events worldwide 2013: Overall & insured loss per continent Source: Munchener Ruckversicherungs-Gesellschaft (2014)

15. Increasing exposure of people & assets has been the major cause of changes in disaster losses Pakistan floods, 2010 6 million left homeless Source: IPCC (2012)

16. Flooding: China 2013 16

17. Summary: Trends in hazards • More hazardous weather and climate events are occurring • Low and middle income countries are particularly vulnerable • Asia is at risk • Hazardous events are becoming more expensive

18. 3 Extreme weather & climate events in Asia & the Pacific

19. All extreme weather events experienced in countries of South East Asia & Western Pacific could be affected by climate change This could alter the frequency & intensity of: Typhoons Floods Precipitation extremes Wildfires Temperature extremes Others (windstorms, blizzards, etc.) 19

20. Deaths from extreme weather events in Southeast Asia, 1970 - 2008 Source: EM-DAT (2008) 20

21. Death by cause among children in some Asian countries • More than 175,000 children & teenagers die from drowning each year • Children under the age of 5 years are most at risk • Most child drowning events happen in & around the home 21

22. Conclusions from the data: • The region has high vulnerability to extreme weather events • Children are particularly vulnerable • Mortality impacts are not evenly distributed across the types of events or across countries (even when differences in population size are accounted for) • Storms & floods account for the vast majority of deaths from extreme weather events

23. What is the experience in your country with early warning systems? Are they proving effective in preventing death?

24. Case study: Disasters & hazard incidence in Bangladesh Source: Cash et al. (2013)

25. Extreme events in Bangladesh’s history Learning & innovation in Bangladesh’s cyclone management Source: Cash et al. (2013)

26. Cyclones & their impact on human population by region, 1980 - 2009 Tropical cyclones & their affects on human populations Source: Doocy et al. (2013)

27. Cyclone Nargis hits Myanmar, 2008 New York Times (2008) The Guardian (2008) 27

28. Danger of glacial lake outburst flood in the Himalayas Excessive melt water can lead to Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) or ‘mountain tsunami’In 2007, 200 glacial lakes in the Himalayas were at risk of bursting. Photo: Dig Tsho, Nepal (1985)

29. Smoke from forest & agricultural fires in 2006 Fire from smoke resulted in degraded air quality in Indonesia, Malaysia & Thailand Photo: Mongabay.com (2006) 29

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31. Summary: Extreme weather in Asia Pacific Climate change could alter the frequency & intensity of: • Typhoons • Floods • Precipitation extremes • Wildfires • Temperature extremes • Others (windstorms, blizzards, etc.)

32. 4 Sources of vulnerability

33. Factors increasing vulnerability to extreme weather & climate events • Age: older adults & younger children • Presence of chronic medical conditions • Low level of physical fitness or physical mobility • Physical or mental impairment • Social isolation • Poverty

34. For exposed & vulnerable communities, evennon-extreme weather & climate events can have extreme impacts Case study: Zimbabwe 2008 • Africa’s largest recorded cholera outbreak • Over 90,000 affected, over 4,000 killed • Began following onset of seasonal rains • Vulnerability & exposure increased risk Source: IPCC (2012)

35. 5 Health risks of extreme weather & climate events

36. Direct public health impacts from extreme weather & climate events Morbidity Mortality Both are observable & attributable to the physical impacts of the event Mental health impacts (Post Traumatic Stress Disorder-PTSD, depression) Delayed onset & recognition can lead to impacts being missed in an event summary Potential to adversely affect productivity Potential for severe health & quality of life impacts. 36

37. Indirect public health impacts from extreme weather & climate events Can be less observable Can take time to develop, such as infectious disease outbreaks May reflect a loss of access to critical resources: clean water, shelter Can result from disruption to routines Restricted access to, or supply of, medicine, caregivers, medical facilities 37

38. Climate change & health risks of future extreme weather events Increases in health risk may or may not result from future extreme weather events in a changing climate. Single events could have a minimal or significant health impacts Socio-demographic changes in population location, size, health, & wealth can be as significant as climate change in altering future risks Adaptation, in the form of hazard planning, preparation & response, will play a critical role in determining the magnitude of future health risks from extreme weather events 38

39. Disaster risk management 6 39

40. Effective risk management & adaptation are tailored to local & regional needs & circumstances • Changes in climate extremes vary across regions • Each region has unique vulnerabilities & exposure to hazards • Effective risk management & adaptation address the factors contributing to exposure & vulnerability. Source: IPCC (2012)

41. Goals for extreme weather event notification & response plans Improve public understanding of the magnitude & severity of the risks involved Develop plans for reducing exposure to the events Prepare response plans with clearly defined goals & responsibilities Include planning for indirect health impacts - they can be significant. 41

42. Goals for extreme weather event notification & response plans Coordinate health system responses with national disaster risk management committee Develop hypothetical scenarios & practice Draw on past experience Be open to outside assistance that has the potential to improve public health 42

43. What we covered in Module 6 1 2 4 5 3 6 Extreme weather in Asia Pacific Worldwide trends in hazards Public health risks Sources of vulnerability Disaster risk management Health risks from extreme weather

44. Learning from Module 6 Extreme weather events already present a significant health risk to countries in South East Asia & the Western Pacific Climate change is increasing the frequency and/or severity of many extreme weather & climate events, such as storms, flooding & wildfires 44

45. Learning from Module 6 How the health risks of extreme events could change with climate change is uncertain Changes in factors other than climate change will be critical in determining the nature & extent of future risks. However, uncertainty is not a reason to not take action Effective preparation can significantly reduce current & future risks under a changing climate. 45

46. What action will you take in your work, given what you learnt in Module 6?

47. Coming up next… Module 15: Disaster risk management