Transition London From Oil Dependency to Local Resilience.

1. Transition LondonFrom Oil Dependency to Local Resilience. September 16th 2008. Rob Hopkins. Transition Town Totnes * TransitionCulture.org * Transition Network

3. The Hirsch Report, 2005 “...the peaking of world oil production presents the US and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and without timely mitigation, the economic, social and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking” (emphasis added) (Hirsch 2005).

6. 4 Energy Scenarios Proactive ResponseGovernment, Society, Technology & Markets 3 1 SlowDepletionand/or later peaking RapidDepletionand/or early peaking 4 2 Reactive ResponseMarkets, Technology, Society & Government

7. 4 Energy Scenarios Proactive ResponseGovernment, Society, Technology & Markets “Lean Economy” * “Techno-Markets” aka “Powerdown” aka “Sustainable Development” RapidDepletionand/or early peaking SlowDepletionand/or later peaking “Collapse” “Burnout” aka “Mad Max”aka “Easter Island”aka “90s Cuba/Russia” aka “Climate Chaos”aka “Business as Usual” Reactive ResponseMarkets, Technology, Society & Government * per David Fleming

8. Peak Oil & Climate Change PLANNED RELOCALISATION • local resilience • carbon reduction • consume closer to home • produce closer to home • play closer to home • decentralised energy infrastructure • the Great Reskilling • localised food • energy descent plans • local medicinal capacity • local currencies CLIMATE CHANGE (a la Stern et al.) • climate engineering • carbon capture and storage • tree-based carbon offsets • international emissions trading • climate adaptation • improved transportation logistics • nuclear power PEAK OIL (a la Hirsch et al.) • coal to liquids • gas to liquids • relaxed drilling regulations • massively scaled biofuels • tar sands and non-conventional oils • resource nationalism and stockpiling

12. 1. Positive Visioning

16. “It will be a huge wrench to leave all this behind, but I have always wanted to live in the country. Our new house will be an eco-home. We are going from one extreme to another”. Anna Ryder Richardson Hello! magazine 1st January 2008

18. 2. Help People Access Good Information and Trust Them to Make Good Decisions

20. 3. Inclusion and Openness

21. Working with BusinessOil Vulnerability Analysis. Totnes first town in the UK to train OVA team and conduct pilot analyses. Working with Liverpool University Oil Depletion Impact Group. Two pilot studies reported back September 2007, more to follow. Endorsed by Totnes Chamber of Commerce

22. Working with Local Landowners. Estates in Transition conference. June 11th 2007.

23. 4. Enabling Sharing and Networking

24. 5. Building Resilience. © Totnes Image Bank

26. George Heath.A Powerdown Pioneer. © Totnes Image Bank

27. Food - Urban Gardens in Cuba Downtown Havana

28. “…localisation stands, at best, at the limits of practical possibility, but it has the decisive argument in its favour that there will be no alternative” David Fleming

29. 6. Inner and Outer Transition

30. Up and Running Arts / Food / Energy / Economics / Liaison with Local Government / Heart and Soul – the psychology of change / Medicine and Health / Housing / Education / Transport

31. 7. Subsidiarity: decision making at the appropriate level The Purpose of Transition.... “To support community-led responses to peak oil and climate change, building resilience and happiness”.

32. Totnes, Penwith, Kinsale, Ireland, Ivybridge, Falmouth, Moretonhampstead, Lewes, Stroud, Ashburton, Ottery St. Mary, Bristol, Brixton, Forest Row, Mayfield, Glastonbury, Lostwithiel, Forest of Dean, Nottingham, Wrington, Brighton&Hove, Portobello, Scotland, Market Harborough, Sunshine Coast, Australia, West Kirby, Llandeilo, Wales, Bro Ddyfi, Wales, Whitstable, Marsden & Slaithwaite, Frome, Brampton, Isle of Wight, Waiheke Island, New Zealand, Orewa, New Zealand, Dunbar, Scotland, Rhayader, Wales, Seaton, Bath, Exeter, Isle of Man, Canterbury, Kapiti District, New Zealand, Carbon Neutral Biggar, a Transition Town, Presteigne, Wolverton, Leicester, Holywood, Westcliff-on-Sea, Isles of Scilly, Liverpool South, Norwich, Tring, Crediton, Boulder, CO, USA, North Howe, Lampeter, South Petherton, Armidale, NSW, Chichester, bell, VIC, Bellingen, NSW, Berkhamsted, Forres, Sandpoint, ID, USA, Opotiki Coast, New Zealand , Newcastle, NSW, Chepstow, Coventry, Bungay, Nelson, Hervey Bay, QLD, Mersea Island, Maidenhead, Ladock & Grampound Road, Leek, Horsham .... and Ambridge!

33. Some Things that Transition Initiatives Do....Have Official Unleashings.... “Maybe they will tell stories about what happened in Totnes. Maybe this evening will be something that is the beginning of one of those stories”. Dr Chris Johnstone – TTT Unleashing Sept ’06.

34. Plant Nut Trees in Odd Places... “Totnes, the Nut Tree Capital of Britain”. Tree Planting, January 2007.

35. Make Food Directories....

36. Print Their Own Money...

37. The Lewes Pound

38. The Brixton Brick?

39. Share Gardens....

40. Try to Do Something about Being So Useless... Skilling Up for Powerdown. Peak Oil / Climate Change, Permaculture Principles, Food, Energy, Building and Housing, Woodlands, Water, Waste, Economics, The Psychology of Change, Energy Descent Planning…

41. Engage their local government World Cafe on Peak Oil and Climate Change with Local Councillors Endorsed by Totnes Town Council Contributions to Local Development Framework.

43. Learn Their History...

44. Buy Solar Panels Together... Totnes Solar Thermal Challenge

45. Set Up Energy Companies...

46. Become Developers....

47. Create Energy Descent Action Plans... Start with a vision and then backcast Incorporate Transition Tales Base it on current planning documents.

48. ...and in the City? • You aren’t alone...