1 / 29

Lecture 9

Lecture 9. James R. Burns Fall 2010. Rate Equations– EMPLOYEE SECTOR. growth rate = growth norm * Junior professionals Mature rate = Junior professionals/mature time Grow rate = growth norm * Senior professionals Retire rate = Senior professionals / work time

arleen
Télécharger la présentation

Lecture 9

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Lecture 9 James R. Burns Fall 2010

  2. Rate Equations– EMPLOYEE SECTOR • growth rate = growth norm * Junior professionals • Mature rate = Junior professionals/mature time • Grow rate = growth norm * Senior professionals • Retire rate = Senior professionals / work time • Death rate = retired / ret life

  3. Rate Equations– APARTMENT SECTOR • Apt const rate = (Apts desired – Apartments)/const time • Apt obs rate = Apartments / lifetime

  4. Rate Equations—HOMES SECTOR • Home const rate = (Homes desired – Homes) / const time • Home obs rate = Homes / lifetime

  5. Rate Equations—RETIREMENT SECTOR • Ret const rate = (Retire units desired – Retire units) / const time • Ret obs rate = Retire units / lifetime

  6. Auxiliary equations • Apts desired = Apts required * Junior professionals • Homes desired = Homes reqd * Senior professionals • Retire units desired = Ret reqd * Retired

  7. To do this right… • You had to recognize sectors • Sector—all the structure associated with a single flow • Apartments cannot flow into homes • Homes cannot flow into retirement units • You had to recognize the exponential smoothing structure • A desired condition • An actual condition

  8. What about the stock equations?

  9. Natural Gas problem

  10. Equations • Birth rate = population * Birth rate norm • Death rate = population * Death rate norm • Gas usage rate = gas usage normal * population * gas reserves remaining / initial gas reserves

  11. Dimensionless ratios • Doesn’t change the dimensionality of the equation, but does allow for effects to be entered

  12. Another dimensionless ratio • Rabbit populations grow rapidly with a reproduction fraction of .125 per month • When the population reaches the carrying capacity of 1000, the net growth rate falls back to zero, and the population stabilizes • Starting with two rabbits, run for 100 months with a time step of 1 month • (This model has two loops, an exponential growth loop (also called a reinforcing loop) and a balancing loop)

  13. Shifting loop Dominance • Assumes the following relation for Effect of Resources • Effect of Resources = (carrying capacity - Rabbits)/carrying capacity • This is a multiplier • Multipliers are always dimless (dimensionless) • When rabbits are near zero, this is near 1 • When rabbits are near carrying capacity, this is near zero • This will shut down the net rabbit birth rate

  14. Dimensionality Considerations • VENSIM will check for dimensional consistency if you enter dimensions • Rigorously, all models must be dimensionally consistent • What ever units you use for stocks, the associated rates must have those units divided by TIME • As we have seen before

  15. VENSIM—the view MENU ITEM

  16. New Open Save Print Cut Copy Paste Set {define dataset name} Run Synthesim Run Reality check Build windows Build output windows Control Panel VENSIM

  17. Control Panel • Variables • Time axis • Scaling • Datasets • Graphs

  18. The new leadership involves… • Managing the COMMONS • DESIGN • Purpose Story • Articulate…. • the goal, the standard, the vision • The ground-truth reality • Use the gap to produce CREATIVE TENSION

  19. What must leaders design? • Policies, strategies, “systems,” organizations, specifically • Selection policies • Vision strategies • Value systems • Culture systems • Measurement systems • Rewards systems • Criteria by which excellence will be determined

  20. Gives rise to a new discipline: Business Design • Must loose focus on the P&L statement • Look at the long term, instead • Have to get away from piecemeal reactions to problems • Have to integrate the five component technologies • Must integrate vision, values, purpose, systems thinking, and mental models • The synergy of the disciplines can propel an organization to major breakthroughs

  21. First tasks of Business Design • Design the governing ideas--purpose, vision, and core values • Building shared vision is important because it fosters a longer-term orientation and an imperative for learning • Get the systems thinking going early on • Get the concept of mental models and surfacing underlying assumptions going early as well

  22. Subsequent tasks of Business Design • Design the learning processes • Get personal mastery going

  23. The Leader as Steward • Leaders have a purpose story • This is an overarching explanation of why they do what they do • how their organizations need to evolve • how that evolution is part of something larger • Most gifted leaders have a “larger story”

  24. The Leader as Teacher • First job of leader is to define reality • Leader must help people achieve more accurate, more insightful and more empowering views of reality • Must view reality at four levels: events, patterns, structures and ultimately a “purpose story”

More Related