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Forecasting Disability Issues

Forecasting Disability Issues. Big Sky Project UCP of Pittsburgh Al Condeluci. Forecasting is not predicting the future, it is the exploration of trends that may affect the future and provoking a discussion that will lead to better actions and strategies.

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Forecasting Disability Issues

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  1. Forecasting Disability Issues Big Sky Project UCP of Pittsburgh Al Condeluci

  2. Forecasting is not predicting the future, it is the exploration of trends that may affect the future and provoking a discussion that will lead to better actions and strategies.

  3. Foresight – looking down the path at what the future might hold • Insight – having conversations and dialogue about how that future might affect and influence us • Action – setting a deliberate plan that will allow you to capitalize on what you predict

  4. Big Sky A national effort, stimulated by UCP, to create a new vision of the future for people with disabilities. Big Sky is designed to raise public awareness about the serious challenges that remain for people with disabilities in our society and develop strategies, initiatives, programs and public policy to address them.

  5. Institute For The Future An independent non profit research group that focuses on emerging trends and discontinuities that will transform the global economy 124 University Ave Palo Alto CA 94301 www.iftf.org

  6. 6 Major Headlines • X People – Changing views of capacity • Lightweight Infrastructures – growth of flexible systems • Group Economy – Economies that favor diversity and responsiveness • Sensemaking – New tools for meaning • Transformational Geography – Politics and economics for diversity and inclusiveness • Sustainable Communities

  7. Major Platforms for Change • Markets – Where change occurs • Practices – How change occurs • Tools – Implements for change • People – The human dimension of change • Places – The venues of change • Ecologies – The impact of change

  8. Markets • Peer to peer practices redefine products, service, markets • Shift from mass media to personal media change the way people find meaning • Agriculture becomes ground zero for global innovation and turbulence • Financial reform finds new value in environmental health, social capacity

  9. Practices • The body becomes a platform for extreme experimentation • Democratization of media changes the rules of engagement • Institutions face challenges from self-organizing groups

  10. Tools • Biology takes the lead in engineering the world • Cognition gets re-engineered • Physical objects come to life

  11. People • Aging and lifestyle drive new kinds of disabilities • Human lifespans lengthen as the population focuses on longevity not aging • Human capacity grows – and with it, a global health economy • Women bear new burdens, reshape the global economy

  12. Places • Virtual spaces create new venues for work and play • Mobile geoblogging makes more places more accessible to more people • Urban slums grow – and become more sustainable • Developing nations emerge as niche leaders

  13. Ecologies • Environmental degradation drives new illnesses, new disabilities • Water brings regions together in search for sustainability • Affluence drives lifestyle drugs at expense of orphan drugs • The urban wilderness drives new forms of species adaptation

  14. Disability Forecast Aging baby boomers will bring more disability. This means that disability issues will merge with aging issues

  15. Technology will continue to diminish the effects of disability People without disabilities will be able to use such technologies thus merging some of the effects of disability into the general population

  16. The concept of “normal” will expand in the general community.

  17. The concept of a “flat world” will begin to create a broader aspect of disability. Through the internet people will have greater access to others

  18. “Virtual social capital” will continue to grow and create more and more access to relationships. The positive affects of social capital will broaden

  19. Traditional legacy organizations that are active now will decline in their impact. They will be replaced by smaller, more nimble organizations and groups.

  20. Smart Homes and buildings will make life easier for everyone allowing more access and activity for all people

  21. Disability Dilemmas • Disability pride vs. “disappearance of disabilities • Intellectual enhancement vs. severe mental limitations • Expanding “normal” vs. people with the most severe disabilities • Interdependence vs. independence • Connected groups = new segregation • Privacy vs. safety and security

  22. Action Zones • Universal design • Transitional chaos as context for reform • Institutional shifts • New kinds of commons for innovation • Corporate social responsibility • P/D as resources for reform • Sustainability as a platform

  23. Rather than adjusting the past – how do we learn to shape the future.

  24. “The past, the present and the future are one – they are today” H.B. Stowe

  25. Al Condeluci 4638 Centre Ave Pittsburgh, PA 15213 412-683-7100 x 2122 acondeluci@ucppittsburgh.org www.ucppittsburgh.org

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