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Cost and Affordability approach at Development Planning stage

Cost and Affordability approach at Development Planning stage. Significant Technical Issues Pre-MS A. A. Engineering Analysis. Analysis of Alternatives. MDD. ASR. Strategic Guidance. Joint Concepts. Materiel Solution Analysis. Technology Development. CBA. ICD.

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Cost and Affordability approach at Development Planning stage

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  1. Cost and Affordability approach at Development Planning stage

  2. Significant Technical Issues Pre-MS A A Engineering Analysis Analysis of Alternatives MDD ASR Strategic Guidance Joint Concepts Materiel Solution Analysis Technology Development CBA ICD NDIA SE Division Meeting February 17, 2010 Mr. Michael Duffey Deputy Director, Development Planning Office of the Director for Systems Analysis

  3. Affordability analysis: Analysis can focus on the subsystem, system, and mission levels and is performed for the entire program life cycle. Typical products of an affordability analysis include cost-effectiveness analyses, risk analyses, and total ownership cost estimates. An affordability analysis synthesizes information from three basic areas: mission analysis, technical analysis, and cost analysis.” Affordability Analysis for DARPA Programs, William M. Kroshl and Peter P. Pandolfini Johns Hopkins APL Technical Digest

  4. Mission – Value Framework (KPP - MOE - TPM) Completed Operational Context Iterative Cycle Missions, Cost Analysis Scenarios, & Capabilities Needed Risk Analysis Performance Trade - Off Architecture Analysis Analysis (PBS – Tech Baseline Yes Best Value Schedule Analysis No Modify Baseline Analyze Issues Affordability Process:

  5. System Cost Drivers: • Project Management • Assembly • System Components : H/W, S/W, IT and others Production Development O&S

  6. Project Management: Systems Engineering on a project • Project Initiation and Planning • Project Management and Control • Quality Assurance Management • Configuration Management • Vendor Management • Documentation Systems Engineering e.g. is consumed by these activities

  7. Project Management Cost Drivers: • Operating Specification • Multiple Site Development • Vendor Interface Complexity • Project Complexity factor • # of Requirements • Requirement Stability • # of Interfaces • # of Vendors • # of Operational Scenarios • Quantities / Schedule

  8. Project Management Cost Drivers Sensitivity:

  9. Assembly cost Drivers • Hardware External Integration Complexity • Engineering Complexity • Development Engineering for Structure • Development Engineering for Electronics • Software External Integration • Hardware Platform Stability • Hardware Platform Availability • Number of Unique Hardware Platforms • System Complexity

  10. MDD FCB What information is available? • System Capability Required • Speed , Range, Weight? • Historical analogues system costs? • Organizational/Contractor performance data? Technology Opportunities & Resources User Needs A Materiel Solution Analysis ICD Strategic Guidance Joint Concepts Capabilities - Based Assessment COCOM OSD/JCS JCIDS

  11. Capability based estimation 1. Historical Data 2. Input for analysis 3. Best fit analysis

  12. SoS consideration Cost of SoS Program Management and Requirements Cost for interlinking and interfacing multiple constituent systems Fraction or whole of constituent system cost

  13. Cont.. SoS consideration Cost for development, production and maintenance of Integration equipment

  14. Risk Methodology:

  15. Cost Uncertainty Variance Analysis on Regression

  16. Performance Analysis:

  17. Schedule Analysis: • Estimated schedule : derived from effort estimates • Schedule compression and expansion effects • Schedule Uncertainty • Acceptable levels of uncertainty (cost, schedule and cost & schedule) at different phases

  18. What MDA needs for decision making?

  19. What is expected from Systems Engineering on Cost and Affordability at Development Planning? • Trade studies? • Material trades • Design trades • Country of manufacturing

  20. Value Proposition: • Cost is only one side of coin, other side is benefits • Benefits consideration to include KPPs

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