1 / 33

Supply Chain Management: Issues and Models Lecture 4: Bullwhip Effect

Supply Chain Management: Issues and Models Lecture 4: Bullwhip Effect. Prof. Dr. Jinxing Xie Department of Mathematical Sciences Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China http://faculty.math.tsinghua.edu.cn/~jxie Email: jxie@ math.tsinghua.edu.cn

ave
Télécharger la présentation

Supply Chain Management: Issues and Models Lecture 4: Bullwhip Effect

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Supply Chain Management:Issues and ModelsLecture 4: Bullwhip Effect Prof. Dr. Jinxing Xie Department of Mathematical Sciences Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China http://faculty.math.tsinghua.edu.cn/~jxie Email: jxie@ math.tsinghua.edu.cn Voice: (86-10)62787812 Fax: (86-10)62785847 Office: Rm. 1308, New Science Building

  2. i) Barilla (意大利面条制造商) 工厂 销售总公司 顾客 分销商 零售商 ii) P & G 3M (胶带) 顾客 P&G 批发商 零售商 信息流 物流 牛鞭效应（例）

  3. Amplified Demand Distortion(the Bullwhip Effects)

  4. Four sources of the bullwhip effect: Demand signal processing Rationing game Order batching Price variation

  5. Bullwhip Effect: An Analytical Model

  6. Bullwhip effect

  7. Events in each period

  8. Variables

  9. Demand Process

  10. Results for demand signal processing

  11. Optimal order-up-to level

  12. Optimal order quantity

  13. Amplification of order variance

  14. Summary Bullwhip effect exists even when the leadtime is zero Other causes of bullwhip effects: omitted here Sharing information is needed?

  15. Information sharing:Value of information

  16. Supplier (Manufacturer) Demand Retailer Basic Assumptions • The demand is assumed to be a simple autocorrelated AR(1) process • (2.1) • d > 0, -1<<1, and  is i.i.d. normally distributed with mean zero and variance 2. • << d

  17. Leadtimes

  18. Retailer’s ordering decision process

  19. Manufacturer’s decision

  20. Retailer’s Leadtime Demand

  21. Retailer’s Leadtime Demand

  22. Retailer’s Ordering Decision

  23. For manufacturer:

  24. Manufacturer’s leadtime demand

  25. Manufacturer’s leadtime demand: No information sharing

  26. Manufacturer’s order-up-to level: No information sharing

  27. Manufacturer’s leadtime demand: information sharing

  28. Manufacturer’s order-up-to level: information sharing

  29. Benefits of information sharing Comparing (3.10) with (3.13), one can quantify the benefits of information sharing: • Inventory level; • Cost evaluation

  30. Similar methods can be used to • Analyze the case when forecasting is used • Raghunathan S. “Information sharing in a supply chain: a note on its value when demand is non-stationary”. Management Science, April 2001, 605-610. • Analyze the value of advance demand information (the value of time) • Zhao X., Xie J. and Wei J. The Impact of Early Order Commitment on the Performance of a Simple Supply Chain. Working paper, 2002, Chinese University of Hong Kong.

More Related