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Islamism, Religiosity and Fertility in the Muslim world

Islamism, Religiosity and Fertility in the Muslim world. Eric Kaufmann, Birkbeck College, University of London e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk. Thanks to ESRC-UPTAP & The British Academy. Religiosity. Affiliation/Denomination (Do you consider yourself a member of…) Attendance (How often do you attend?)

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Islamism, Religiosity and Fertility in the Muslim world

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  1. Islamism, Religiosity and Fertility in the Muslim world Eric Kaufmann, Birkbeck College, University of London e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk Thanks to ESRC-UPTAP & The British Academy

  2. Religiosity • Affiliation/Denomination (Do you consider yourself a member of…) • Attendance (How often do you attend?) • Religiosity (Are you a religious person?) • Religious Traditionalism (Belief in Hell, Devil, Bible as word of God) Different studies use one or more of these measures

  3. Religiosity and Fertility "One of the most central injunctions of virtually all traditional religions is to strengthen the family, to encourage people to have children, to encourage women to stay home and raise children, and to forbid abortion, divorce, or anything that interferes with high rates of reproduction." (Norris and Inglehart 2004)

  4. Second Demographic Transition Theory • van de Kaa 1987; Surkyn and Lesthaeghe 2004 • Lestaheghe and Neidert 2006 Thesis: As societies modernize, religiosity becomes a more important determinant of fertility

  5. Studies on Religiosity and Fertility • Adsera 2004 on Spain between 1985 and 1999 • Also finding a link: Lehrer 1996; Berghammer, Philipov, and Sobotka 2006; Kaufmann 2007, 2008 • Mixed Results: Westoff and Jones (1979); Frejka and Westoff 2006

  6. Religious Traditionalism and Fertility • Fargues (2000) and Berman (2000) on ultra-Orthodox Jews • Hout, Wilde and Greeley (2001) on Evangelical Protestants; Sherkat (2001) on Mormons and Hispanic Catholics • Berman and Stepanyan (2003) on Madrassa-attending Muslims • Little else on Islamism

  7. Decline of Liberal Protestants

  8. Source: ‘The Moment of Truth’, Ha’aretz, 8 February 2007

  9. Muslim World • The religious cleavage between Islamists and Others (Secular Nationalists/Socialists/Liberals)

  10. Figure 17 Source WVS 1999-2000. N=15197 cases. Question asked in Algeria, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Jordan, Pakistan, Nigeria, Egypt, Azerbaijan, Bosnia, Iran, Morocco, Turkey, Uganda and Tanzania.

  11. Source: WVS. N=8544 cases.

  12. Source: WVS 1999-2000. N = 7436 respondents. Asked in Algeria, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Jordan, Pakistan, Nigeria and Egypt.

  13. Source: WVS 1999-2000. N = 7412 respondents. Asked in Algeria, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Jordan, Pakistan, Nigeria and Egypt.

  14. Agree With Sharia Law, Muslims in Islamic Countries, 1999-2000 WVS Married/Children: weak + Age: 25-54 -, younger and older in favour Education: - Town Size: + up to 500k National Pride:+ GDP per Capita:+ Country Ed.: - Country Fertility: +

  15. Islamism and Fertility • Q: Will higher fertility endow Islamists with political leverage into the future? • Berman & Stepanyan (2003) find a significant but modest link between Madrassa attendance and fertility in four countries • This study uses WVS 1999-2000 dataset on 7-15 countries (depends on question)

  16. Source: Berman and Stepanyan 2003

  17. Source: Berman and Stepanyan 2003

  18. Islamism and Fertility

  19. Source: WVS 1999-2000. N = 1649 respondents with High School or More, 3318 respondents with Less than High School. Asked in Algeria, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Jordan, Pakistan, Nigeria and Egypt.

  20. Source: WVS 1999-2000. N = 2796 respondents in towns under 10,000 and 1561 respondents in cities over 100,000. Asked in Algeria, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Jordan, Pakistan, Nigeria and Egypt.

  21. Sharia as Law of Land and Desirable Fertility in the Country ARDA Youth, Emotional Energy, and Political Violence: The Cases of Egypt and Saudi Arabia Survey, 2005

  22. Having an Islamic government, where religious authorities have absolute power ARDA Youth, Emotional Energy, and Political Violence: The Cases of Egypt and Saudi Arabia Survey, 2005

  23. ARDA Saudi & Egypt Youth Survey • 18-25; 1000 per country; 2005 • Sharia, religiosity, attendance, prayer – all significant, but fall out of equation with country control • Islamist theocratic government remains significant after country controls • NB: No proper measure of town size in this survey

  24. What’s happening at macro level? • Abbasi-Shavazi finds that Iran, highly religious, has very low fertility • Religiosity and fertility related at individual level, but less so at national level

  25. Figure 7 Source: Goldstone 2007

  26. Religiosity and Fertility in Muslim Countries, 2000 Egypt Bangladesh Nigeria Iran Morocco Tanzania Uganda Pakistan Azerbaijan '95-97 Jordan Indonesia Turkey Bosnia Albania 2000 Albania '95-97 Algeria Source: 2000 WVS and World Bank.

  27. Conclusions: Fertility • In Muslim developing countries, unlike other developing countries, higher national religiosity is associated with lower fertility • Islamists in Muslim countries are more fertile; some evidence for sharpened fertility effect in more 'modern' contexts, i.e. cities, the educated • But effect still modest: Muslim Religious Fertility Dynamics more like USA and Europe than Israel • The growth of the religious population through fertility is a long-term process, unlike Israel

  28. Future Research • Would like to do projections • Religious Affiliation (including ‘none’) : • Fertility (children ever born) • Age structure • Religious Intensity (attendance, belief, theology) • All of the above, plus: • Religion now and at age 16*

  29. Wish List & Data Issues • WVS coverage is patchy, esp. for sharia question. Need a wide range of countries • Would like to be able to distinguish by sect (Shia, etc), by Islamism (Literalism, contraception; specifics of sharia: alcohol, headscarf, divorce; Islamic government) and by intensity (prayer, mosque attendance, madrassa attendance), and traditionalism(women’s role, dowry, access to contraception, etc) • Need the above now and at age 16

  30. Data Sources Also: 1) Gallup World Poll (I may have access) 2) DHS, Family Fertility Surveys 3) IPUMS, Census See IIASA project website: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/~terama/Relig.html

  31. Part II: The Demography of Islam in Europe

  32. Source: (Maréchal 2002)

  33. Projected Muslim Population of Austria to 2051 Source: Goujon et al. 2006

  34. European Islam: No Evidence of Secularization

  35. Low Muslim Secularization……

  36. Future Research: projections of religious and Islamist populations for Muslim world, Europe, North America • Own project: http://www.sneps.net/RD/religdem.html • IIASA projections project: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/~terama/Relig.html

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