1. Regeneration Strategy SWOT & Key Challenges Workshop Bridgend Rugby Club 20 June 2007

2. Welcome Louise Fradd Director of Regeneration Bridgend County Borough Council

3. Bridgend Regeneration Strategy Simon Pringle, Malcolm Williams & Michael Palin SQW Ltd

4. 09.40 What we’re trying to do 09.50 Setting the Scene 10.15 What the data say about Bridgend 10.45 Revisiting the Community Strategy 10.55 Breakout Groups Tea/coffee 12.10 Plenary 12.55 Next Steps . . . Lunch!!! Agenda

5. The Study – what are we trying to do? Simon Pringle

6. Objectives • 4! • An evidence base to understand how Bridgend’s economy works • Moving forward the Vision for the County Borough in the Community Strategy . . . • Producing a Regeneration Strategy for 2007-2022 . . . • Underpinned with deliverable actions • Sustainable • Impact-delivering

7. . . . & approach? • Evidence-based • Moving-on from simple assertion • Futures facing • Consolidating what has gone before . . . not simple reinventing • Engaging partners – you will make the strategy work! • Thinking boldly, differentiatedly . . . & playing to strengths

8. Stage 1: Baseline Identifying the themes & policies underpinning the Community Strategy & Council priorities Stage 2: Sector Review Identifying key economic sectors (& social implications) for the future of Bridgend Stage 3: Development of strategic framework Developing vision & strategic objectives Stage 4: Develop Action Plan Development of Action Plan Stage 5: Dissemination To be conducted by Bridgend CBC Stage 6: Launch & implementation of strategy To be conducted by Bridgend CBC Developing the Regeneration Strategy

9. Stages 1-4 - the SQW Commission 1a. Inception Set-up (done) 1b. Documents review Thorough strategic review (done) 1c. Data review Socio-economic baseline (done) 2a. Sector analysis Interim key sectors report (end May) 3a. First Partner Workshop Linking & focusing priorities for Regeneration (today!) Draft Strategic Framework Document (September) 3b. Develop Draft Strategic Framework Document Agreed Strategic Framework & first-cut ideas for actions (mid-September) 3c. Strategic Framework Calibration Workshop

10. Stages 1-4 - the SQW Commission Identification of potential project champions, resources & timescales (end September) 4a. Bilateral telephone discussions with partners 4b. Development of Thematic Action Plans Thematic action plan report (early October) 4c. Develop monitoring & evaluation framework Monitoring & evaluation framework (end November) 4e. Finalisation of strategy & action plan Final report & presentation (end November)

11. Stages 1-4 - the SQW Commission • Key study outputs • Baseline report • Strategic Framework Document • Action Plan • Readying you!

12. Health & Well Being Safer Communities The Environment Prosperity Working with the Community Plan Working Together, 2004 An inclusive community for Bridgend, with a good quality of life

13. ‘steering the county borough’s natural, human & financial resources to help residents lead independent lives to the full’ Thru . . . Robust Partnership Reduction in Crime Employment & Economic Regeneration Better opportunities for children & young people Valuing older people Promoting sustainable use of the environment Health for residents, workers & tourists Access to opportunity, transport & services The Community Strategy’s Vision

14. Setting the wider context - Market & Technology Drivers facing Bridgend

15. Not an economy in isolation! • Markets are changing • Demographics e.g.. ageing population esp. in West • Increasingly virtual through Internet • Market fragmentation – no longer mass markets, but segments • Growing emphasis on service & ‘customerisation’ • ‘Systems’ . . . & Huge ranges based on common platforms • Delivery to increasingly short time-frames • Lifestyle factors • Environmental issues, Health & Fitness, Brand & Culture • The power of the retail chains • Huge influence on specification & price

16. Not an economy in isolation! • BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India & China) • ‘Middle class’ in China & India – 30% of 2bn = 600m • . . . 2 x EU! • Cars, holidays, luxury brands . . . Western standards of living

17. & technologies are accelerating! • Life sciences • Micro & nano technologies • New materials e.g.. bio-active materials • Computing functionality – Moore’s Law • Knowledge mining & management • Memory technologies - storage • Networks • Mobility/portability

18. Disruptive business models increasingly the norm! • e.g.. • Direct selling via global call centres • Internet business interface – e.g.. low cost airlines’ internet booking & Reverse Auctions • Creating a service without owning main infrastructure • Double-hubbing • Innovation & marketing in one place – production in another • Licensing & branding • MySpace, YouTube, Second Life, Google • Increasing need for alliances – through networks or clusters

19. Western companies can’t compete on global mass market manufacture . . . • Instead, they need to focus increasingly on • Niche markets esp. with design sophistication • Innovative new areas – with lead in-time & IPR cover • Products & services tailored for the public sector • Military equipment & services where competition is restricted • Combinations of product & service

20. New opportunity areas • Health, medical, translational research, pharmaceuticals, cosmetic surgery, obesity, beauty • Internet developments, immersive environments, games, leisure, creative industries, entertainment • R&D, creation of IP for world markets/manufacture • Environmental markets, sustainable technologies, renewable/clean technologies - in particular consultancy, know-how & IP related products • Security, defence and disaster prevention, recovery • Financial services, legal services, trading e.g. carbon credits • Bridgend’s RS must understand & anticipate these sorts of opportunities

21. Setting the wider context - Policy Drivers

22. Policy drivers • European - Lisbon Agenda, European Initiative for Growth • UK - Competitiveness, Knowledge Economy, City Regions, HM Treasury Drivers of Productivity • Enterprise • Skills • Investment • Innovation . . . • . . . & Full Employment

23. Policy drivers • Wales - Wales Spatial Plan, A Winning Wales, Objective 1 SPD • Bridgend – Working Together • The Policy context is increasingly complex . . . the RS must connect - but not be constrained - by this

24. Data perspectives on BridgendPast & Present

25. Commuting Demography Activity Rates Productivity Economic Success (GVA per capita) Employment Rates Determinants of Economic Success WAP/POP X LF/WAP X EMP/LF X GVA/EMP (or GVA / hour X hour/EMP)

26. Commuting Demography Activity Rates Productivity Economic Success (GVA per capita) Employment Rates Determinants of Economic Success • Population base • Migration • employment prospects • character of the area • housing offer

27. Commuting Demography Activity Rates Productivity Economic Success (GVA per capita) Employment Rates Determinants of Economic Success • Age profile • Skills/education attainment • Employment offer

28. Commuting Demography Activity Rates Productivity Economic Success (GVA per capita) Employment Rates Determinants of Economic Success • Job creation • Skills match

29. Commuting Demography Activity Rates Productivity Economic Success (GVA per capita) Employment Rates Determinants of Economic Success • Treasury drivers • Skills • Enterprise • Investment • Innovation • Competition • Nature of employment • sectors, markets, occupations

30. Commuting Demography Activity Rates Productivity Economic Success (GVA per capita) Employment Rates Determinants of Economic Success • Relative employment prospects • Role within wider economy

31. Lenses with which to view Bridgend • HMT Drivers of Productivity • Enterprise • Skills • Innovation • Investment • Full Employment • Quality of Life (e.g.. Housing)

32. Bridgend at a Glance

33. Gross Value Added (£) per head Source: ONS, NOMIS Overall performance of the Bridgend economy • In a period of growth, Bridgend’s economy actually declined to 2000 • Since 2001, GVA has improved . . . but remains comparatively sluggish • This could be due to demographics, labour market, or productivity . . . all are being considered • Message – the GVA gap has grown to be substantial . . . it needs closing

34. Business Registration (Start-up) rates Source: NOMIS Enterprise & business • We suffer from an ‘enterprise gap’ – lower levels of business start-ups compared to our neighbours • This means we have less wealth creating units within our economy • But . . . if people do start a business, it’s survival chances are good • Message: encouraging enterprise amongst all groups is essential in creating a bigger & broader economy

35. Change in Economic Inactivity Rates Source: NOMIS Labour market • Economic inactivity has been lower than Welsh comparators • Although, inactivity rates fluctuate widely between 1999 & 2006 • Within our labour market – particular cohorts stand out: • Males are more likely to be inactive compared to comparators • Young people are more likely to be unemployed • Encouraging labour market activity improves economic performance & economic equity • Message – economic inactivity is low, but we need to support groups finding access to opportunity difficult

36. Qualifications, Bridgend & comparators Source: NOMIS Education & Skills • Bridgend has the highest proportion of those with no qualifications, & a deficit of those with NVQ4+ - the key driver of modern economies • In 2005/06, Bridgend had the lowest % of pupils achieving 5+ GCSEs grade A*-C compared to Cardiff, Bridgend & Wales • If our young people are not attaining well . . . how can they find employment? How can our economy grow? • Message – a large skills shortfall exists & needs addressing

37. Percentage of employees in knowledge intensive businesses (KIBs), Bridgend & comparators Source: ABI Investment & Innovation • We lack a direct HE presence – key sources of innovation, investment & skilled people • Bridgend has a low percentage of its population employed in KIBs • However, KIBs as a % of businesses stock is high & outperforms SW Wales & Wales • Digital@Sony Technium – a wider role? • Generating/accessing knowledge is key in the Knowledge Economy

38. IMD overall domain map - 2004 Source: CLG Deprivation • We have a broad North-South split in terms of deprivation . . . • . . . but ‘pockets’, wherever they are, cannot be ignored • Communities First in Bettws, Blackmill, Caerau & Llangeinor – more resources to come? • How do we better link our needs to our opportunities • Message – addressing deprivation is win-win

39. QoL - Housing & Services • There are already strategies in play . . . • Health, Social Care & Well Being Strategy • Local Housing Strategy 2004-2009 • These should be ‘backed-up’ & not re-created • First steps on the ladder – support our young people • Higher pupil to teacher ratio than Wales in Primary Schools • Children in social services – where do these go? • Message – delivery is key here, within a broader strategic framework

40. Some sector perspectives on Bridgend -Cambridge Econometrics projections

41. Some sector perspectives • A view of the business base • Shrinkers • Output  Employment  • Adjusters • Output  Employment  • Expanders • Output  Employment  • We need to think of the implications • Occupations • What does it imply for policy emphasis

42. Expanders Adjusters Shrinkers Summary analysis

43. Shrinking industry sectors

44. Adjusting industry sectors

45. Expanding industry sectors

46. Occupational change . . .

47. Drawing the Messages together . . . • We need to • Better understand & anticipate global trends in Markets & Technologies • Disruptive processes • Compete on knowledge • Alliances & networks • Competitor awareness • Close our Productivity Gap • Higher Value added focus • Grow economic activity by bearing down on inactivity • Increased level of Skills – basic & higher • Build innovation & investment levels

48. Drawing the Messages together . . . • Ensure economic benefits are widely shared • Equity & Social distribution . . . • Vital for drawing people back into the mutually rewarding activity • Focus on expanding (& some adjusting) sectors • Expanding – e.g.. Computing, Communications, Professional Services • Adjusting – e.g.. Financial services, Construction • Understand in economic terms how we perform as a distinctive national city

49. Questions & Answers from the Floor

50. Revisiting the Community Strategy