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June 2007

EXPERIMENTAL INDEX OF SERVICES PRODUCTION (ISP) Rail and Road Freight Transportation. June 2007. Experimental Index of Services Production (ISP). Objective:

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June 2007

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  1. EXPERIMENTAL INDEX OF SERVICES PRODUCTION (ISP) Rail and Road Freight Transportation June 2007

  2. Experimental Index of Services Production (ISP) Objective: Apply the recommendations of the Compilation Manual for an Index of Services Production, provided by OECD STESEG Task Force on Services, for the production of an Experimental Index of Services Production (Rail and Road Freight Transportation), in the Mexican case.

  3. Experimental Index of Services Production (ISP) • Basis for the construction of the principal’s series data (2005-2007), based in NAICS: • Monthly Services’ Survey (MSS), 2005-2007. • Information since January 2005 to March 2007. • Pick up data at NAICS’s Industry Group Level: • 4821, Rail transportation. • 4841, General freight trucking. • 4842, Specialized freight trucking. • 4921, Couriers. • 4922, Local messengers and local delivery.

  4. Experimental Index of Services Production (ISP) • From these data base, is calculated the Total Turnover (of services production). • The MMS collects, by means of questionnaire: • Incomes from services offer and goods sell. • Incomes from transport, cargo, courier and delivery services. • Once obtained the Total Turnover, it was deflated with the Producer Price Index (base 2005=100) related with the NAICS’s Industry Group, generated by Central Bank. • The Manual recommends the use of a wide variety of gross output price indexes for computing the preferred deflated gross output measures. For consistency with the national accounts, the preferred deflator would ordinarily be a gross value added price index that reflects the difference between gross output prices and intermediate input prices. This is the case in terms of the PPI used.

  5. Experimental Index of Services Production (ISP) Procedure for the calculation of a Laspeyres Index of Total Turnover (Related to 5 NAICS’s Industry Groups) Where: Ing.ps, Total Turnover. Ing.ps, Total Turnover by Industry group i on period t. i, industry group 1 to 5. w, Industry group weight, from 1 to 5. t, monthly period from 1 to “n”.

  6. Experimental Index of Services Production (ISP) Total Turnover data base 2005 - 2007

  7. Experimental Index of Services Production (ISP) Recognizing the effect of two different samples (firstly, for 2005, at the beginning of the project and, after a evaluation of that sample, one for 2006-2007), it was necessary, by means of a statistical inference, to compare both samples because of the first design for the project, that was based on the preliminary Economic Census’ Directory and, second, from an evaluation of the coverage with the definitive Directory.

  8. Experimental Index of Services Production (ISP) • Basis for the construction of the historical series data (2000-2004), based in the Mexican Classification System, 1994 (MCS): • From a data base referred to January 2000 to December 2004, was selected an homogeneous sample (the same units in all the period) of MSS, for the following economic activities, under Mexican Classification System 1994 (by economic classes instead of NAICS’s Industry Groups): • 711203, Other Specialized freight trucking. • 711204, General services freight trucking. • 720002, Courier services. • 711101 (4821) Rail transport(Because of this economic activity was outside the scope in 2004, the data of Total Turnover was calculated from a linear regression, considering the values known.

  9. Experimental Index of Services Production (ISP) Procedure for the calculation of a Laspeyres Index of Total Turnover (Related to 4 economic classes of the MCS) Where: Ing.ps, Total Turnover. Ing.ps, Total Turnover by Industry group i on period t. i, economic classes, 1 to 4. w, Industry group weight, from 1 to 4. t, monthly period from 1 to “n”.

  10. Experimental Index of Services Production (ISP) Total Turnover data base 2000 - 2004

  11. Experimental Index of Services Production (ISP) Index of Services Production (ISP). Where: IPSt, Index of Services Production of t period. Ing.ps, Turnover of t period. Ing.ps,2005, Turnover average of 2005.

  12. Experimental Index of Services Production (ISP) • Linking Index: • Time Series number 1, from January 2000 to December 2004.- • Calculate relativeannual rates. • Time Series number 2, from January de 2005 to may 2006.- • Calculate relative annual rates. • Linking both Time Series, by the interpolation of the relative annual rates for the referred periodfrom January to December 2005. • The interpolation of the relative annual rates was developed by a linear regression of each of the monthly periods for 2005.

  13. May 2005 • Quadratic Fit: y=a+bx+cx^2 • S=0.03547065 • R=0.90247684 • Coefficient Data: • a = 0.092887805 • b = -0.069757074 • c = 0.012521521 • March 2005 • Sinusoidal Fit: y=a+b*cos(cx+d) • S=0.01407270 • R=0.97897491 • Coefficient Data: • a = 0.047564251 • b = 0.068188074 • c = 1.019328 • d = 0.90780334 • January 2005 • 4th Degree Polynomial Fit: y=a+bx+cx^2+dx^3... • S=0.02309910 • R=0.95449983 • Coefficient Data: • a = -0.023062156 • b = 0.15103958 • c = -0.10947638 • d = 0.025847016 • e = -0.0018886093 • April 2005 • Sinusoidal Fit: y=a+b*cos(cx+d) • S==0.02939804 • R=0.94140656 • Coefficient Data: • a = 0.028870622 • b = 0.063453995 • c = 4.446753 • d = 2.837249 • Jun 2005 • Sinusoidal Fit: y=a+b*cos(cx+d) • S=0.02730024 • R=0.97360005 • Coefficient Data: • a = 0.0561301 • b = 0.081759878 • c = 1.0240701 • d = 0.7554897 • February 2005 • 4th Degree Polynomial Fit: y=a+bx+cx^2+dx^3... • S=0.00924431 • R=0.97485091 • Coefficient Data: • a = -0.03123046 • b = 0.10747809 • c = -0.067982591 • d = 0.014733239 • e = -0.0010077286 Experimental Index of Services Production (ISP)

  14. July 2005 Sinusoidal Fit: y=a+b*cos(cx+d) S=0.01915395 R=0.96979746 Coefficient Data: a = 0.042407781 b = 0.049793064 c = 1.1992459 d = -0.31133447 September 2005 Sinusoidal Fit: y=a+b*cos(cx+d) S=0.00351158 R=0.99701542 Coefficient Data: a = 0.029885587 b = 0.029829211 c = 0.91254223 d = 1.4701819 November 2005 MMF Model: y=(a*b+c*x^d)/(b+x^d) S=0.04961642 R=0.75387915 Coefficient Data: a = 0.0085556164 b = 6.5533222e+010 c = 0.06358521 d =19.645144 August 2005 Sinusoidal Fit: y=a+b*cos(cx+d) S=0.05336617 R=0.84252754 Coefficient Data: a = 0.037261494 b = 0.057018438 c = 1.0402058 d = 0.52179487 October 2005 Sinusoidal Fit: y=a+b*cos(cx+d) S=0.01877400 R=0.96952486 Coefficient Data: a = 0.040456543 b = 0.046053947 c = 0.90615447 d = 0.56274884 December 2005 Reciprocal Quadratic: y=1/(a+bx+cx^2) S=0.00859035 R=0.99167434 Coefficient Data: a = 218902.2 b = -91225.602 c = 9125.5984 Experimental Index of Services Production (ISP)

  15. Experimental Index of Services Production (ISP) ISP data base Jan. 2000 – march 2007

  16. ISP and its moving average Chart

  17. ISP and its moving average Chart • Future work • Development of an Index Services Production for the following group activities and NAICS Sectors: • Air Passenger Transportation. • 51, Information. • 61, Educational Services. • 62, Health Care and Social Assistance. • 72, Accommodation and food services.

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