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NCDOT Long-Range Revenue Projections Past, Present & Future

NCDOT Long-Range Revenue Projections Past, Present & Future. SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORTATION FOR THE NEW NORMAL. 2 0 1 2 ANNUAL CONFERENCE. H. Tasaico, P.E. Raleigh, NC May 3, 2012. Past, Present & Future. Past: Before 1900s. Past: Before 1900s.

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NCDOT Long-Range Revenue Projections Past, Present & Future

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  1. NCDOT Long-Range Revenue Projections Past, Present & Future SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORTATION FOR THE NEW NORMAL 2 0 1 2 ANNUAL CONFERENCE H. Tasaico, P.E. Raleigh, NC May 3, 2012

  2. Past, Present & Future

  3. Past: Before 1900s

  4. Past: Before 1900s Private Investors (Turnpikes & Plank Roads) First Federally Sponsored Highway - The National Road (1806)

  5. Past: 1900s to 1930 Progress and Road Conditions

  6. Past: 1900s to 1930 Transportation Vehicles & Needs WE WANT GOOD ROADS NC Highway Commission (1901 & 1915) Highway Fund Federal Aid - 1916 Motor Fuel Tax – 1921/1907? Present DMV Fees Bonding (1921, 1923,1925,1927 - Total $115M)

  7. Past: 1930 to 1988 Transportation Building Progress Local Funding – Powell Bill (1951) NC Department of Transportation (1971) Motor Fuel Tax – Indexed (1985) Increased DMV Fees More Bonding (1949, 1965, 1977 – Total $800)

  8. Past: 1989 to Present Population and VMT Growth • NC Highway Trust Fund – 1989 • Highway Use Tax • More Bonding – 1996 • Increased DMV Fees – 2005 • Turnpike • Innovative Financing • (Project Cash Flow, State Infrastructure Bank, Debt Limits, GARVEE, TIFIA)

  9. Past: 1989 to Present Motor Fuel Tax Collection - Terminal Locations NC Motor Fuel Tax Calculation

  10. How Does it All Fit Together Economic Indicators NC North Carolina Comprehensive Plan ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Revenue Projections & Innovative Finance GARVEE Design Build DB Finance Tolling TIFIA Statewide Long-Range Plan 30 yr NCDOT Program & Resource Plan 10 yr STIP Budget State TIP 7 yr Strategic Planning & Prioritization Work Program 5 yr Cash Model State Budget 2 yr Consensus Forecast 10

  11. Present Funding .7% Other $35.4M State Funding 25% Highway Trust Fund $1,115.4M Highway Use Tax 15% Fees 25% Motor Fuel Tax 60% 46% Highway Fund $2,049.2 28% Federal Funds $1,249.9M Federal Funding Motor Fuel Tax 92% Fees 8% 11

  12. NC – Federal Aid Revenues ($ Millions) $ in Millions Influencing Variables Motor Fuel Tax Rate and Consumption • Rate Congressionally affixed • 1993 most recent adjustment • Decreasing Fuel Consumption • Vehicle Fuel Efficiency • Economic Conditions • Uncertain Future • Purpose • Unsustainable funding model No Change Decline 12

  13. SFY 2012 Funding • Provided 9 month of funding • ≈ 5% less than SFY 2011 • Budget • 2012 Became Law November 18 • P.L. 112-55 • 3 Continuing Resolutions • 2013 Proposal Released February 13 Highway Account Balance in Billions Federal Status • Authorization • SAFETEA-LU Expired 9/30/2009 • Extended until 6/30/2012 (9th Extension) • Ability to collect federal gas tax expires • Deadlock over Financing Plan • Size of Multi-modal Program • Diversified Revenue Portfolio • Sustainability 13

  14. NC – Motor Fuel Revenues ($ Millions) $ in Millions Influencing Variables Motor Fuel Tax Rate and Consumption • Variable Motor Fuel Tax Rate Formula Decline* Decline • Decreasing Fuel Consumption • Vehicle Fuel Efficiency • Economic Conditions 14

  15. NC - Highway Use Tax Revenues ($ Millions) $ in Millions Influencing Variables Rate, Vehicle Pricing and Transactions • Fee rate (3%) set Statutorily • Not Adjusted since 1989 • Vehicle Pricing • Transactions • Number of Vehicles No Change Decline Increase 15

  16. NC – DMV Fees Revenues ($ Millions) $ in Millions Influencing Variables Fee Rate and Transactions • Fee rates Statutorily affixed • 2005 most recent adjustment • 1980’s previous adjustment • Transactions • Population • Number of Vehicles No Change Increase 16

  17. Revenue Forecasting Model • Work Program Process • Years 1 and/or 2 Start with Governor’s Budget forecast (Consensus by Office of State Budget, Fiscal Research Division and NCDOT Staff) • Subsequent Years – use Governor’s Budget forecast as basis and apply select growth rates (In-house Committee Review)

  18. Data Sources and Assumptions Motor Fuel Tax DMV Fees Highway Use Tax

  19. Future - Possible

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