1. La Trobe University 29 June 2006 Reaching interstate consensus - Recent challenges and lessons from the MDBC Bob Douglas Director, Water Policy Coordination Murray-Darling Basin Commission

2. Australia’s Murray-Darling Basin • 1.06 million sq. km • 15% land mass • 6.1% of Australia’s total run off • major river system • 2 million people • 2 capital cities

4. Australia’s Murray-Darling Basin • highly modified environment • extremes in climatic variability • environmentally significant • economically and socially important

5. Flows are small

6. Ratioof maximum annual flowto minimum annual flowfor selected rivers

7. MDB rainfall variability(480mm annual average) River Murray system showing extended drought periods

8. Environmentally significant • large ecological range – alpine to rainforest to arid • numerous reserves, national parks • 16 RAMSAR sites • world heritage convention listings • internationally important biosphere reserves • breeding grounds for migratory birds • at least 35 endangered birds • at least 16 endangered mammals

9. Economic importance • 40% of Australian agriculture • approx $14 billion • 70% of irrigated agriculture • approx $7 billion • Tourism • Manufacturing (food processing) • Mining • Rural Communities

10. Highly regulated river system • $2 billion infrastructure • resource sharing/ allocations • high levels of climatic variability • water flows • impacts of river regulation

11. Murray-Darling Basin Commission • Murray-Darling Basin Agreement • 6 governments working together • Charter "to promote and co-ordinate effective planning and management for the equitable efficient and sustainable use of the water, land and other environmental resources of the Murray-Darling Basin."

12. SIX GOVERNMENTS Aust Gov. NSW Vic SA Qld ACT Community Advisory Committee MURRAY-DARLING BASIN MINISTERIAL COUNCIL MURRAY-DARLING BASIN COMMISSION Living Murray Committee Natural Resources Management Committee Commission Strategy Committee River Murray Water Committee MDBC Office

13. Major Challenges for the MDBC • coordination between 6 govts • sharing the water • highly regulated system • 5 jurisdictions • industries, environment, communities • managing as one catchment • synergies between strategies • implementing The Living Murray • major risks to shared water resources

14. The Cap Growth of surface water use inMurray-Darling Basin

15. River Murray Environmental Flows

16. Risks to shared water resources • number of risk factors may reduce annual surface flows in the MDB by about 20% over the next 20 years. • also impact on • flow regime • water quality and • water security • impact is uncertain • estimated reduction in water volume between 2,500GL and 5,500 GL in 20 years • (average annual flow ~ 14,700 GL)

17. Risks to shared water resources • climate change • growth in dams • increased groundwater use • reduction in return flows from irrigation • reforestation/ land use change • bushfires

18. Climate change • estimated largest and most likely reduction in flow • increase the other risks • potentially reduce stream flow by • 1,100 GL in 10 years (5% of annual flow) • 3,300 GL in 50 years (15% of annual flow) Predicted regional differences in percentage reductions in annual stream flow. Dark red indicates greatest reductions. (Source: Jones and Brooke).

19. Growth in Dams • impact on water volume second to climate change • evidence suggesting number and size of farm dams increased significantly in last 10 years • estimated total streamflow reduction by • 250 to 3,000 GL / year in 20 years • 400 to 4,000 GL/ year in 50 years • future impact depends on effectiveness of legislation or policies

20. Source: Groundwater Status Report 1990-2000 Groundwater systems • constitutes 10-15% of water used • significant growth in groundwater use • connectivity • may threaten surface water availability • consistency in defining sustainable yield

21. Reduction in return flows in irrigation • water diverted for irrigation losses through leakage and evaporation • flows back to river and groundwater systems if not used • more efficient water use • reduced flows back to stream • could increase salinity

22. Source: BRS Reforestation/ land use change • plantations potentially reduce water yield in a catchment • productive forestry areas tend to have water yield impacts • reduction in water flow depends on plantations location and size Increase of plantation forestry in Australia (current and trajectory) towards the 2020 Vision.

23. Bushfires • bushfires in 2003 affected high rainfall areas in MDB catchment • severe fires have long term effects • affect water quality and reduce surface and groundwater levels • climate change ↑ frequency and intensity of dry periods = ↑ bushfires Variation in run-off from Mountain Ash forests. (source: Kuczera)

24. Estimated impact Estimated impact of the six risks on Murray-Darling Basin surface water by 2020. Darkest colours show most likely impact (Source: MDBC)

25. Shared water resources Water shared between jurisdictions (includes both groundwater and surface water)

26. Framework • need to consider the risks together in an integrated and adaptive way • understand the interrelationships of the various activities and processes and effect on water quantity and quality in the Basin • working with the jurisdictions to address the risks requires • collaboration • building on and enhancing the actions already being taken by individual jurisdictions • identifying where value can be added by a more integrated and collaborative approach • ensuring there is adequate commitment and resources within the jurisdictions

27. Michael Bell www.mdbc.gov.au

28. 1 Independent President + 2 Federal 2 Qld 2 NSW 2 SA 1 ACT 2 Vic

29. MDBC Relationships