Climate Change and the Transportation Community: Mitigation and Adaptation

1. Climate Change and the Transportation Community: Mitigation and Adaptation Jeff Houk Air Quality Specialist FHWA Resource Center

2. Why is FHWA Concerned about Climate Change? • Transportation is a large contributor to greenhouse gas emissions • Transportation is the second-largest source of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the US; the US highway system produces 1/20th of the world’s CO2 emissions • Need to adapt transportation to the impacts of climate change

3. Transportation sector accounts for 28% of GHGs nationally Transportation is among the fastest growing sources of GHG emissions Transportation: Key Source of GHGs U.S. GHG Emissions, 1990-2006 (with Electricity distributed to End-Use Sectors)

4. Transportation-Related GHG Emissions* • Not including bunker fuels • Source: U.S. EPA, Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2006 (U.S. EPA, 2008)

5. What can be done to reduce Greenhouse Gases?Multiple Transportation Strategies Raise vehicle energy efficiency Reduce carbon content of fuels Reduce growth in VMT Land use Improve vehicle and system operations

6. VMT Increases Offset Improvements in Efficiency, Fuels Business as usual New CAFE standard New CAFE standard plus renewable fuel standard (RFS) Reproduced from: Therese Langer, American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy, Reducing Vehicle Miles Traveled as a Climate Change Strategy, Presentation to DOT Climate Change Forum, January 9, 2008. 6

7. What are States Doing? • ~40 states have adopted or are working on climate action plans • Most CAPs include transportation measures: Biofuels CA automotive GHG standards Fuel-efficient fleets VMT goals/smart growth Transit projects Idle restriction • Some plans recommend plan/project GHG analysis

8. State of the Practice Significant inconsistencies across states and regions in goals and action plans Action plans generally stop at state or MPO boundaries DOTs sometimes not part of state-level action plans/strategy development Most focus has been on GHG mitigation, with little comprehensive assessment or action on adaptation

9. What are we in FHWA doing? Outreach Stakeholders Interagency Work Group on Transportation, land use and climate change Education Webinar, Newsletter, DOT Clearinghouse, New FHWA website, Informational Q&As Peer Exchanges State/MPO activities to reduce emissions in planning process State Adaptation efforts Technical Assistance GHG Modeling Adaptation Research VMT, GHG Mitigation strategies Gulf Coast study, Sea Level Rise study, adaptation strategies Reauthorization • New Sustainable Transport and Climate Change Team 9

10. Addressing Mitigation at the Project Level • Many transportation projects help reduce GHG emissions • Congestion Relief • Mode shift (passenger & freight) • FHWA has no national requirement for project-level analysis in NEPA • ~ 12 states either have or are considering state requirements • CEQ may issue national guidance

11. Addressing Mitigation in Planning • Opportunities to address GHGs in planning documents • Vision and goals • Trends and challenges • Strategies and improvement projects • Performance measures • Other opportunities in transportation planning: • Coordinate with stakeholders on GHG efforts • Integrate land use into transportation planning

12. Transportation Pricing Compact Development Transit Interconnectivity Bike/Ped Facilities HOV Lanes Telecommuting Reduce construction emissions Reduce maintenance emissions Use of rights-of-way to support: Sequestration Alternative Fuel What are some Possible Mitigation Strategies?

13. Reauthorization • The current authorization for Federal surface transportation programs, SAFETEA-LU, expires at the end of FY 2009 • Efforts underway at DOT to develop the Administration’s proposal • Performance based • Multi-modal • Consolidated programs • Livability will be the centerpiece

14. Other Pending Legislation • Waxman-Markey climate bill • Requirement for MPOs over 200K to submit GHG reduction plans to EPA • Potential cap & trade revenue for transit and other GHG reduction strategies • HR 803 • Would require long-range transportation plans to provide for reductions of GHG emissions

15. Climate Change and Impacts on Transportation • Climate Change Effects • Rising sea levels (virtually certain – 99%) • Increases in intense precipitation events (very likely – 90%) • 20-yr peak precipitation events could occur every 6 to 8 years over much of the US • Increases in hurricane intensity (likely – 66%) • Due to higher sea surface temperatures. Particularly in the Gulf, Tropical Atlantic • Increases in very hot days and heat waves (very likely - 90% chance) • Increases in Arctic temperatures (virtually certain – 99% chance)

16. Climate Change and Impacts on Transportation • Impacts on transportation infrastructure • Permanent inundation, temporary flooding, higher maintenance levels, lower inland water levels, etc. • If some segments of corridor are inundated, much longer sections become unusable • In some cases, bridges are high enough to be spared, but approach roads aren’t • Lower-volume collectors and locals tend to be at lowest elevations, but these are the roadways that serve origins and destinations • Temperature effects include road and rail buckling, increase aircraft takeoff distance and/or load restrictions

17. What is Adaptation? • Actions to avoid, withstand, or take advantage of climate changes and impacts • Adapting transportation assets to the new and emerging effects of climate change • Magnitude of impacts difficult to assess • Potential implications for where we locate and how we build

18. Adaptation Options include • Maintain and manage • Higher maintenance costs • Protect, strengthen • Sea walls, buffers, design changes • Relocate • Move key facilities, instead of rebuilding • Promote redundancy • Emergency management

19. Implications for:Transportation Decision-making • Efforts to adapt to the impacts of climate change should be reflected at every stage • Transportation planning • Preliminary engineering and NEPA • Project design and construction • Operations and maintenance

20. Implications for:Transportation Planning State/MPO: systems level focus Address in long-range plans and project design Inventory potentially affected infrastructure Identify most vulnerable and critical infrastructure (and future corridors) Prioritize project funding Cooperate with resource agencies Consider impacts in location decisions, design, operations and maintenance

21. FHWA Adaptation Activities FHWA Strategy to Address Adaptation to Climate Change Effects Interim Framework on Conducting Assessments of Transportation Infrastructure Vulnerable to Climate Change Effects Guidelines for Consideration of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in Project Development and Environmental Review Coordination/Activities with NOAA/NWS NCHRP 20-83(05): Climate Change and Highway Infrastructure: Impacts and Adaptation Approaches Gulf Coast Study – Phase 2

22. For More Information US DOT Transportation and Climate Change Clearinghouse: http://climate.dot.gov/index.html Highways and Climate Change: http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/hep/climate/index.htm Contact: Robert Ritter Team Leader Federal Highway Administration Office of Planning Robert.Ritter@dot.gov (202) 493-2139