Background for climate negotiations

1. Rules and practices Background for climate negotiations

2. Content • Science recap • Dirty job • One step backward • Practicalities

3. Science recap

4. “….stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. • Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatenedand to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.”

5. The ultimate objective of this Convention and any related legal instruments that the Conference of the Parties may adopt is to achieve, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Convention, stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner. Environment Society Environment Economy Economy Society

6. Key messages of science (AR4, Stern) • Human-induced change is unequivocal • Faster than expected… • Impacts generally negative • Compounding poverty, fragility, inequality • Warming beyond 2°C = “danger” (EU promoted) • Prevention is cheaper than cure (globally) • Early action costs less than inaction • Stern: 5 to 20 times less (global estimate) • Pathway to “safety” will knock <3% off global GDP growth to 2030 • <0.12% per annum

7. 14 Scenario A1B IPCC AR4 worstcase scenarios Global average temperature increases above 2°C are expected to cause significant ecological and social disruption Temperature above preindustrial 1º C 2º C 3º C 4º C 5º C 1. Weather More intense storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding, and heat waves 2. Water Threat to local water supply as glaciers melt Changes in water availability, threatening up to a billion people Major cities around the world threatened by sea-level rise 3. Food Falling crop yields in many developing regions Falling yields in many developed regions 4. Ecosystem Ecosystems extensively and irreversibly damaged Many more species face extinction 5. Social More than a billion people may have to migrate – increasing the risk of conflicts 6. GDP Loss of up to 20% of global GDP Loss of GDP in developing countries SOURCE: Stern Review; IPCC, 4TH Assessment Report, Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report

8. Impacts – evolution of knowledge (2001-2009)

9. Sea level rise -projection

10. Dirty job

11. Projected global temperature increase year Continued global emission growth means1.1ºC - 6.4ºC global average temperature increase during 21st century

12. Projected and observed fossil fuel emissions

13. The Risk • An emission budget of a trillion tonnes CO2 during the first 50 years of this century. • Of that budget, we already used up a third in the first nine years • At present rates of emissions, we will use up the remaining two-thirds in another 20 years, by around 2030

14. 2050 Peak at 550 ppm, long-term stabilization 550 ppm Peak at 510 ppm, long-term stabilization 450 ppm Peak at 480 ppm, long-term stabilization 400 ppm Current proposals leave us on track to 3 degrees or more! Global GHG emissions and pathways for GHG stability GtCO2e per year Low range of proposals High range of proposals Probability of temperature increase under 2˚C Expected temperature increase 15-30% 3.0˚C 40-60% 2.0˚C 70-85% 1.8˚C Source: IPCC WG3 AR4,, den Elzen, van Vuuren; Meinshausen; Global GHG Abatement Cost Curve v2.0; Catalyst analysis; C-ROADS

15. Delay in peaking of emissions

16. The developing country financing need can be met by a combination of direct and indirect carbon market financing and public finance Financing needs and sources assuming 25% caps in developed countries, € billion, annual average 2010-20 rounded to nearest € 5 billion • Could be delivered through: • Government offset purchases (~ € 5 billion) potentially increased by market interventions (€ 0-5 billion) • AAU auctioning (€ 5-30 billion) - as per Norwegian proposal 10-20 65-100 10-15 • Could be mobilised through: • AAU offset purchases (~ € 5 billion) • AAU market intervention (€ 0-5 billion) • AAU auctioning (€ 5-30 billion) - as per Norwegian proposal 5-15 55-80 5-20 45-50 10-20 10-20 10-25 Mitigation Adaptation Total need Direct carbon markets Carbon market inter-ventions ETS auction revenues Public finance Concess-ional debt Internat- ional transport levies Public fiscal revenues ETS markets Source: Project Catalyst analysis

17. One step backward

18. Per capita fossil fuel CO2 emissions Today 1750-2007

19. Interest groups – top 25 footprints Top 25 in Population Top 25 in GDP (Taiwan), Netherlands, Argentina Turkey Egypt, Nigeria, Vietnam, Philippines, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Pakistan USA, China, EU25, Russia, India, Japan, Germany, Brazil, UK, Italy, France, Mexico, Indonesia, Iran, Thailand Canada, Rep. Korea, Australia, S. Africa, Spain, Poland Myanmar, D.R.Congo Top 25 in CO2 emissions (incl. LUCF) Saudi Arabia, Malaysia

20. Assessing the problem • Negotiations are driven by science • Growing confidence in IPCC assessments • Caveat: re “Summary for policy-makers” • Motivation to act is highly variable • Low spatial correlation between cause and effect • Large variation in capacity to cope • Many losers - but some short-term winners

21. Debate of the appropriate response • Mitigation or Adaptation? • Mitigation = division, confrontation • Vulnerability = unifying condition • Adaptation = unifying message • Adaptation first?

22. Lost in translation? • Responsibility • “common but differentiated responsibilities” • historical responsibility (equity) • responsibility for the future • national circumstances,“respective capabilities” • burdens or opportunities

23. Mitigation strategy:options • 5. Targets • National OR sectoral • Absolute OR intensity • 6. Policies • Market-based (top-down) OR • Technology-driven (bottom-up) • 7. Vision • Low-hanging fruit (energy efficiency, reducing deforestation) OR • Low-carbon “future technologies”

24. Effectiveness, fairness, responsibility, potential (Data for 2000, 6 KP gases - except 1950-2000)Source: CAIT

25. Effectiveness, fairness, responsibility, potential (Data for 2000, 6 KP gases - except 1950-2000)Source: CAIT

27. Strategic parameters • Aim: avoid “dangerous interference” • Two aspects: Mitigation + Adaptation • To limit climate change to “safe” (tolerable) levels • So that the challenge of adaptation is manageable • & sustainable devt. and food security not impaired • Criteria: • Inclusiveness (=> effective, fair) • Solidarity • Urgency ….but… • Question: “safe”, “tolerable”, “manageable” • but for whom?

28. Shared vision … differentiated future • Long-term mitigation goal (50:50) • Low-carbon future: technology, markets and finance • 2020 peak with current technologies (efficiency) • New technologies: market share or shared remedies? (IPRs) • Market incentives vital but not enough • Need for green FDI and more public finance • Differentiated commitments in common framework of accountability

29. Practicalities

30. Main actors: Parties and coalitions • Parties • Coalitions • Non-actors • Lobbyist • NGOs • Media

31. Major negotiating groups • The Association of Small Island States: AOSIS • The European Union • Umbrella Group, which emerged at Kyoto and afterwards, brings the JUSSCANNZ countries except Switzerland together with the Russian Federation and Ukraine. • JUSSCANNZ consists of Japan, the Unites States, Switzerland, Canada, Australia, Norway and New Zealand • G-77/China • Environmental Integrity Group: Swiss, Mexico, Korea BASIC - Brazil, South Africa, India and China The Secretariat of the UNFCCC

32. Negotiating groups – G-77, China Negotiating groups within the G77 & China • African Group which consists of 53 African countries, which is mainly concerned with the impacts of climate change; • Group of Latin America and the Caribbean which has 33 members and is primarily concerned with economic development opportunities; • Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) which consists of 42 members which are the especially vulnerable to the impacts of climate change; and • Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) the members of which have a mutual concern regarding the impact on the oil export revenue as a result of reduced use of fossil fuel. • Least Developed Countries - countries with the lowest income

33. Regional groups • Africa • Asia • Central and Eastern Europe • Latin America and the Caribbean States (GRULAC) • Western Europe and Others (WEOG)

34. Bodies of the Convention • Five bodies are established by the UNFCCC: • The supreme body of the UNFCCC is the Conference of Parties (COP) • which meets every year and • it is a supreme body of the UNFCCC. • comprised of all Parties that have ratified the Convention; • The COP is supported by the Secretariat, Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technical Advice (SBSTA) and the Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI): • SBSTA provides scientific, technical and methodological advice to the COP • SBI assist with the assessment and review of the implementation of the Convention • The two bodies (SBSTA and SBI) also work on compliance, mechanisms and capacity building.

35. Bodies of the Protocol • Conference/Meeting of the Parties – similar role as COP under UNFCCC • The COP/MOP is supported by the Secretariat, Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technical Advice (SBSTA) and the Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI); • SBSTA provides scientific, technical and methodological advice to the COP/MOP and • the SBI assist with the assessment and review of the implementation of the Protocol; • JISC, CDM EB, Compliance committee

36. Innovations of Bali • AWG-LCA – something new… Extension of mandate in Copenhagen • AWG-KP – post 2012 structure of the Protocol Extension of mandate in Copenhagen

37. Negotiating rules • Submissions • Interventions • Informal meetings • Coalition formation • Horse trading • Chairing

38. Decision making process • Formal rules of engagement • Bodies, bodies and bodies • UNFCCC • Kyoto Protocol • Regional representation • Levels of negotiation • Behind the curtains (off-record)

39. Meetings – the iceberg

40. Practicalities • Information sources • Daily Programme • ENB • Screens • Documents • Deciphering abbreviations • When to get what? • What to read, leave aside • Dramatic arrangements • Food and drink, logistics

41. Daily Programme • Official meetings • Informal groups • Groups other than Convention and Protocol bodies • Contact information • Status report of consideration of agenda items • Events

42. Issues – where to get the info? • Annotated agenda • Background information on the site of the Convention (www.unfccc.int) • Document counter… • Ask the neighbour, whoever comes…. • The Screen… • Earth Negotiations Bulletin (www.iisd.ca) (+Eco) • Daily Programme

43. Types of documents FCCC/CP or FCCC/CMP Provisional or regular documents/agenda INF.docs Information documents Misc.docs Miscellaneous documents Add. Addendum CRP Conference room papers L. Documents Limited documents Non-papers Informal documents TP Technical papers

44. Thank you! Jozsef Feiler feiler@obh.hu