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  1. Web Page: www.jamesgregory.org poster

  2. James Gregory Public Lectures Future Programme: 1. April 30 -- Kenneth Miller “Life: Creation or Evolution?” October 29 2009 -- Keith Ward "God, Science and the New Atheism" February 18, 2010 -- David Wilkinson "God and the Big Bang” 4. April 29, 2010 -- Bill Newsome "The Mind: Brain or Spirit?"

  3. John ray pamphlet • By • John Houghton • -- • for sale at • Bookstore • Or download • from web site • John Ray Initiative • www.jri.org.uk

  4. book For sale at bookstore

  5. Global Warming -is it real and what can we do?John Houghton James Gregory Lecture University of St Andrews 19 February 2009

  6. SPACESHIP EARTH • Spaceship Economy or • Cowboy Economy after Prof Kenneth Boulding 1966

  7. Sustainability • Not cheating our children • Not cheating our neighbours • Not cheating the rest of creation

  8. The Science of Global Warming

  9. The underlying physics of global warming(known for 200 years) Long-wave radiation Solar radiation The Greenhouse Effect jp10

  10. Changes in CO2 over 10,000 yearsfrom ice-cores (colored symbols) and atmospheric samples (red line) From Figure SPM-1, Summary for Policymakers, IPCC WG1 Fourth Assessment Report

  11. Scenarios of Future Changes in Climate From IPCC AR4 2007

  12. Some main impacts of climate change • More intense heat waves • Sea level rise • More intense hydrological cycle jp14

  13. European Heatwave 2003 - JJA temp anomaly compared with average 1961-90 From Technical Summary , IPCC WG1 Fourth Assessment Report, 2007

  14. extremely rare event European heat-wave 2003 - 20,000 died Swiss Temperature Series for June-August 1864-2003 Analysis shows it likely that most of the risk of the event is due to increase in greenhouse gases - also likely that - by 2050, average summer - by 2100, a cool summer (Schär et al. 2004, Nature, 427, 332-336, Stott et al 2004, Nature 432 610-614) jp16

  15. Adapted from Milliman et al. (1989).

  16. More rain for some; less rain for othersJun-Jul-Aug changes by 2090s Precipitation increasesvery likely in high latitudes Precipitation decreaseslikely in most subtropical land regions From Summary for Policymakers, IPCC WG1 Fourth Assessment Report

  17. Floods and Droughts - the most damaging of world disasters Over the period 1975-2002: • Over 200,000 lives lost through flooding from rainfall & 2.2 billion people affected • Over 500,000 lives lost due to drought & 1.3 billion affected Jonkman, S.N. 2005 Natural Hazards 34, 151-175 jp18

  18. Global Warming & Climate Change in 21st Century • Rise in global average temperature > 2 ºC • Rise in average sea level for many centuries • More extreme heat waves, floods and droughts • Likely Greenland ice cap will begin to melt down (complete melt down gives 7m of sea level rise) • Poor nations worst affected • Many millions of environmental refugees • Loss of millions of species

  19. How sure are we about Global Warming? jp22

  20. www.ipcc.ch

  21. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) • Founded in 1988 • Many hundreds of scientists involved from different countries & ideologies • Under discipline of science - honesty, accuracy & balance • In June 2005, Academies of Science of all G8 countries with India, China & Brazil, issued a joint statement, “Global response to climate change” endorsing the international scientific consensus of the IPCC. - a remarkably strong endorsement from the world’s top scientific community jp24

  22. What can we do aboutGlobal Warming?International Action jp25

  23. UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGERio de Janeiro : June 1992ARTICLE 2: OBJECTIVE The ultimate objective of this Convention .... is to achieve, .… stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere … the level to be chosen should enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner. jp26

  24. Stabilization Target of 2ºC above preindustrial • First proposed by EU Council in 1996 • Reiterated by Chancellor Merkel at G8 in 2007 • Widely urged by many at Bali Conference 2007 jp31

  25. What Action? • Halt Deforestation • More efficient energy generation & use • Carbon capture and storage underground • Renewable energy generation with no carbon emissions jp31

  26. What Action? • Halt Deforestation • More efficient energy generation & use • Carbon capture and storage underground • Renewable energy generation with no carbon emissions jp31

  27. What Action? • Halt Deforestation • More efficient energy generation & use • Carbon capture and storage underground • Renewable energy generation with no carbon emissions jp31

  28. from IEA WEO 2007

  29. What Action? • Halt Deforestation • More efficient energy generation & use • Carbon capture and storage underground • Renewable energy generation with no carbon emissions jp31

  30. Concentrated Solar Power Thousands of mirrors focus sunlight on to gas or steam engines to make electricity

  31. Energy from Biomass & Waste • From Waste - domestic and agricultural • From Biocrops to power stations • From Biocrops to Biofuels • Local rather than centralized energy so valuable in rural areas • Energy from agricultural & forestry wastes could meet at least 10 % of the World’s total energy needs. from World Energy Outlook, IEA, 2006 Table 14.6

  32. Local energy for rural areas in the developing world

  33. Local solar energy supply Solar cell array Light ~1 m2 ~100 W peak power T.V. + - Refrigerator Car battery

  34. from IEA ETP 2008

  35. The International Challenge

  36. per Capita CO2e Emissions in 2004 from IPCC AR4, WGIII, 2007

  37. Climate Change: the Moral Imperative • Growth of wealth in rich world through cheap coal, oil, gas • No realization of damage caused, especially to poor countries • Rich countries need to reduce damage & assist poor countries develop sustainably

  38. Are we good at Sharing? • Yes - in our families • Yes - in our communities • Yes - in our national social programs • No - internationally with poorer nations - net flow of wealth from poor to rich We have to learn to SHARE

  39. From everyone who has been given much, much will be demanded Jesus in Luke 12 v 48

  40. How long have we got?

  41. Waymarks for global energy emissions road map to 2050

  42. Investment in Energy to 2050 • Under business-as usual ~ 6 trillion $/year • With emissions reductions under 2 deg target ~ extra 1 $trillion /year or 1% of world GDP • Extra investment recovered through savings on fuel • from IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2008

  43. The world’s energy system is at a crossroadsCurrent global energy..trends..are unsustainableThere’s still time to change the road we’re onWhat’s needed is nothing short of an energy revolutionIEA World Energy Outlook 2008 Executive Summary

  44. Action on Climate Change “Mostly we know what to do, but we lack the will to do it” Sir Crispin Tickell in the Doomsday Letters

  45. Reasons for optimism - Commitment of scientific community - Necessary technology available - God’s commitment to his creation jp42