A Preliminary Assessment of Ecosystem Vulnerability to Climate Change in Panama

2. A Preliminary Assessment of Ecosystem Vulnerability to Climate Change in Panama Laura Tremblay-Boyer Eric Ross Anderson Presented in the McGill Panama Field Study Semester Internship Program Symposium Research in Panama (ENVR 451) On the 26th of April 2007 at 9:05am in the Tupper Building of the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Panama

3. Host Institution • Supervisors: Emil Cherrington and Roxana Segundo The Water Center for the Humid Tropics of Latin America and the Caribbean The Mesoamerican Regional Visualization and Monitoring System

4. EVCCan index of ecosystem vulnerability to climate change • Sea level rise Elevación del nivel del mar • Ecosystem Geometry Geometría de los ecosistemas • Climatic niche Espacio climático • Species Sensitivity Sensibilidad de las especies • The main tool for this project was Geographical Information Systems (software: ArcGIS), kindly provided by CATHALAC

5. Methods • Ethics Statement • Credibility of the results • Vulnerability values were calculated for each ecosystempatch of Panama according to its ecosystem type

6. Ecosystems: types and patches • 37 ecosystem types • 1303 patches • Example: 1 ecosystem type has 27 separate and individual patches Tropical broadleaf evergreen submontane rainforest (500-1000m Caribbean, 700-1200m Pacific) – no human intervention

7. EVCC1 - Sea level rise • Land in coastal zones with an elevation of zero to one meter was selected • A vulnerability value based on this density was obtained

9. EVCC2 - Ecosystem geometry 1. Ratio: Edge vs. Core is more vulnerable than A B 2. Relative Perimeter C D is more vulnerable than

11. C EVCC3 – Climatic Niche of the Ecosystems Gower metric for each 1 km2 cell: • Predicted change in temperature and precipitation in 2025, 2050 and 2099 • Intra-annual temperature and precipitation range 1 km2 3. For each ecosystem patch, average Gower metric of all cells for temperature and precipitation 4. Independently rank average Gower metric of all ecosystem patches on a scale from 1 to 10 for temperature and precipitation

12. C EVCC3– Results +

13. C EVCC3 rank for temperature vs. precipitation, area of bubble represents the number of ecosystem patches with that combination of rank EVCC3 Temperature vs. Precipitation for each ecosystem patch vs.

14. C EVCC4 – Species sensitivity

15. C EVCC4 – Results

16. C EVCC4 and the distribution of endemic species

17. Total Vulnerabilities • According to the quality and pertinence of the data, the rank of importance: Climatic niche Sea level rise Ecosystem geometry Species sensitivity

19. C Additional EVCC Applications

20. C EVCC and degree of human intervention Red = highest average; orange = second highest; yellow = third highest. Blue = most commonly ranked with high vulnerability

21. C Average EVCC inside protected areas = 17.63062 Average EVCC for all of Panama = 17.842452 EVCC and Protected Areas

22. C Distribution of biodiversity and endemic species in Panama a. Distribution of biodiversity b. Endemic Species

23. Correlations between the EVCCs, distribution of biodiversity and endemic species # species # endemic species

24. C Combining EVCC with the distribution of biodiversity – in a map

25. Conclusions • The EVCC index has the potential to be a very useful tool for conservation of large-scale biodiversity; • It is important to include the uncertainties and to be flexible in the application of this index, always including and improving it with the latest scientific knowledge; • Climate change should be evaluated in conjunction with other factors that threaten ecosystems

26. What have we learned? • “Vulnerability” or “vulnerabilidad” is a difficult word to say… in all languages • GIS is a very powerful tool • Communication is essential • The availability of data is necessary to increase the quality of environmental studies

27. Acknowledgments • Our university and professors • CATHALAC, SERVIR, and NASA