1 / 33

Virginia’s Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment: A lesson in Quiet Progress

Virginia’s Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment: A lesson in Quiet Progress. Chris Burkett VA Dept. of Game and Inland Fisheries June 5, 2013. Why are we here?. Talk about the BIG PICTURE Overview of our CC Plan Brief background of our project Display some results

rupert
Télécharger la présentation

Virginia’s Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment: A lesson in Quiet Progress

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Virginia’s Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment:A lesson in Quiet Progress Chris Burkett VA Dept. of Game and Inland Fisheries June 5, 2013

  2. Why are we here? • Talk about the BIG PICTURE • Overview of our CC Plan • Brief background of our project • Display some results • Discuss emerging management concerns • Identify next steps

  3. Fundamental Truth… Virginia is a politically conservative coal producing state and we have been for centuries

  4. How I Feel Most Days: Working on Climate Change involves Political Peril And Stakeholders that want you to “Take a Stand”.

  5. Climate Change Will Affect Management We work for organizations and agencies that were created to conserve and manage the nation’s resources. Climate change will have an impact on how we do our jobs. Like other threats, we need to incorporate climate information into our planning processes.

  6. 2009 Climate Change Strategy • Climate Adaptation Strategy • DGIF, NWF, VCN • Multi-stakeholder effort • Completed Oct. 2009 • Designed to be place to start One of the Most Important Needs: Develop a better understanding of how climate change might impact Virginia’s wildlife and habitats.

  7. Side Boards Our plan does not: • Lay Blame • Take Sides • Make impossible recommendations • Go on, and on, and on… • Applicable to more than just climate change

  8. Virginia’s Effort Partner With NWF and CMI for a 2-Step Project • Determine: • the changes projected for Virginia’s climate • and • what those changes might mean for Virginia’s wildlife and habitats

  9. Virginia- Specific Climate Model 10km X 10km Reports at 2060 and 2095 2 GHG scenarios (B1 and A1FI) Consider suite of climate variables beyond avg. temp and avg. precipitation. Phase 1 – Climate Modeling We wanted to understand the extreme events that drive the changing averages. 9

  10. Top Soil Moisture (Dynamic Downscale)

  11. Threats Assessment – Part 2 • 20 Species • Plants or Animals • Must be associated with the Action Plan (SGCN, habitat component, or threat) • Predictions based on current distributions and climatic tolerances

  12. Model Process • Presence data • Build CART model using current climate data • Plug in future climate data into model for probability of occurrence • Low (.01 - .40) • Medium (.41 - .70) • High (> .70) • Quantify results/patterns

  13. Climate Impacts and Implications for Wildlife and Habitat

  14. Climate Projections from Modeling

  15. Changing Forest Composition • Potential for changing forest composition. • Climate could be more favorable for some species (So. Red Oak and Bald Cypress) • Less favorable for others (Black Oak, White Oak, No. Red Oak) • Concerns about rate of transition. • Potential secondary impacts - habitat

  16. Northern Red Oak 19

  17. Flowering Dogwood 20

  18. Bald Cypress 21

  19. Possible Extirpations • Possible extirpations • Brook Trout • Loss of cold water habitats

  20. Brook Trout 23

  21. Invasive Species • Invasive Species – gypsy moth • Likely to do well under predicted conditions • Could impact others species • Oaks, adapting • Black bears responding to oaks

  22. Gypsy Moth 25

  23. Selection of Additional Species • Timber Rattlesnake • Oak Toad • Bobwhite Quail

  24. Timber Rattlesnake 27

  25. What have we learned? • Things are going to change • Not as simple as move upslope/upstream • Distributions will change, so will probability of occurrence • New combinations of species • Complex interactions • Gypsy moth and oak species • Changing plant community composition • Competition from new species interactions • Native species • Invasives

  26. Management Implications • DGIF • Virginia Wildlife Action Plan • Wildlife Management Areas • Species specific management plans • Other sectors: • CZM program • Department of Forestry • NEPA process • Local planning offices Climate is not the sole determining factor.

  27. Next Steps… • What to do with the data • Summarize • Availability • Research • Conserved lands • Focus on Habitats • Collaborations

  28. Questions? Ideas? Chris Burkett Wildlife Action Plan Coordinator Virginia Department of Game and Inland Fisheries Chris.Burkett@dgif.virginia.gov Austin Kane Science and Policy Manager National Wildlife Federation kanea@nwf.org Scott Klopfer Director Conservation Management Institute sklopfer@vt.edu Virginia’s Climate Strategy for Wildlife is Available at: http://www.bewildvirginia.org/climate-change/ 33

More Related