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High Ice Water Content Nowcasting and Data Management Tools

High Ice Water Content Nowcasting and Data Management Tools

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High Ice Water Content Nowcasting and Data Management Tools

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  1. High Ice Water ContentNowcasting and Data Management Tools Julie Haggerty, Gary Cunning, Jennifer Black, George McCabe, Marcia Politovich, Greg Stossmeister, Cory Wolff FAA Icing Weather Information Exchange 20 November 2013

  2. Status of NCAR HIWC Activities • Algorithm for the Prediction of HIWC Areas (ALPHA) • ALPHA successfully tested during Real-Time Nowcasting Exercise (RTNE; Darwin, Feb-Mar 2013) • Several upgrades and fixes implemented based on findings • Additional case studies using Airbus research flights and RTNE cases • Currently receiving model, satellite, and radar data for pre-project testing • HAIC-HIWC Field Catalog • Requests for additional content provided by partners • Several quick-look products submitted for testing • Password protection will provide security for sensitive data • Darwin Field Campaign • Oct-Dec: coordination with various partners • 9 Dec 2013: computers shipped • 16-20 Dec 2013: computers integrated on BOM network • 14 Jan 2014: ALPHA and Field Catalog become operational • 15 Jan – 14 Mar 2014: onsite nowcasting and data management support

  3. Real-Time Nowcasting Exercise (RTNE)Feb-Mar 2013 • Darwin-based exercise to test ALPHA, field catalog, data transfer and ingest, networking, and forecasting procedures • Participants included NCAR, BOM, NASA LaRC, Boeing, EC • Results • ALPHA improvements • Better understanding of field campaign demands • Local knowledge of weather and forecasting techniques • Enhanced working relationships

  4. ALPHARTNE Action Items • Playback system for review and analysis of interesting cases • Improve consistency between two-input and three-input versions of ALPHA • Enhanced Cirrus Anvil interest map to identify large, smooth areas with cloud tops close to tropopause • De-speckling input and output fields • Miscellaneous adjustments to existing interest fields and bug fixes

  5. Comparison of ALPHA nowcast with in situ data from Airbus research flight ALPHA HIWC interest 23 Feb 2010 0600 UTC Approximate flight track Estimated HIWC interest at 250 mb (above); vertical cross section of HIWC interest along flight track (below)

  6. RTNE Case Study: two-input (top) and three-input (bottom) HIWC interest at 350 mb from ALPHA

  7. HAIC-HIWC Field Catalog • Proposed front page • Provided for FRR, comments invited • Requests for additional products received and will be incorporated • RASTA products • WXR reflectivity • Password protection provided on certain data sets and documents • Aircraft data • Forecast policy • Specified documents • Others as needed • Daily Reports • Initial set defined • Users will modify as needed HIWC High Ice Water Content

  8. Darwin Field Campaign PlanningCoordination with HAIC-HIWC Partners • BOM • Darwin local network • Data products from Melbourne (model) and Darwin (radar) • NASA LaRC • Satellite cloud products derived from rapid scan MTSat • Airbus/SAFIRE/ATMOSPHERE • Data management and security • Real-time data transfer from aircraft via PLANET to field catalog GIS tool

  9. Plans for Remainder of POP(Dec-May 2014) • Field campaign preparations (Dec) • Final stages of hardware and software configuration prior to shipping • Continuing coordination with partners • Travel arrangements • Darwin field campaign (Jan-Mar) • Nowcasting/forecasting team • ALPHA assessment • Data management services • Post-project tasks* • Analyze preliminary data and “acquired intelligence” • Begin ALPHA upgrades • Prototype long-term data archival system • Explore connections with industry

  10. Beyond FY14Toward an Operational Product • ALPHA version 2 • Improved scientific algorithms based on data set from HAIC-HIWC experiment and HIWC encounters provided by Airbus, United, DMT (Lufthansa) • System refinements based on additional real-time experience • HAIC-HIWC data archival system • Final data files available to partners • Continuing discussions with United Airlines, Lufthansa, and DMT representatives • Requirements for HIWC product • Discuss proposal to provide preliminary ALPHA products, along with oceanic convection and 30-hr probabilistic ensemble forecast • Additional event data