KENYAN VISION 2040

1. KENYAN VISION 2040 PRESENTATION TO THE “20TH ENGINEERS INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE 2013” AT TOM MBOYA LABOUR COLLEGE, KISUMU CONTRIBUTED BY:

2. We are not alone N = R*. fp. ne. fl.fifc. L (DR. FRANK DRAKE’S EQUATION) N = Number of communicative civilisations in the Milky Way at our current level of civilisation; R* = Rate of formation of “sun like” stars; fp = Fraction of those stars (*R) that have planets; ne = Number of “earth like” planets per star that has planets; fℓ= Fraction of earth like planets (ne) where life actually develops; fi= Fraction of life sites (fℓ ) where intelligence develops; fc = Fraction of intelligent civilizations (fi) that develop detectable communication in space; L = “Lifetime" of communicating civilizations;

4. What shall we tell the alien? • How we elect leaders to lord over us whether in democracy or communism or many other confused systems – he will not be interested • How we deliver justice arbitrarily – he will not be interested • Our pastimes: football, dancing, weddings and bull fighting – he will not be interested • Our senseless habits bordering on insanity where we overfeed then spend a great deal of time and resources reducing accumulation of fat in our bodies - he will not be interested If our experience with UFOs and crop circles can guide us then what the alien wants to know is simply our technological advancement of which the Engineer and the scientist are the custodians

5. Crop circle or formation 238 m diameter crop circle in the form of a double triskelion on an oats field, England, 2001. Origin: unknown

6. Our salvation lies in Vision 2040

7. Contents • Vision 2040: Targets and requirements • Recent railway development in Nairobi • Apprehension about large infrastructure projects • Purpose built cities and designated transport corridors • Funding Vision 2040 projects • Engineering opportunities • Vision 2040: Developing infrastructure • Case studies for passengers and freight transport • Typical minor challenges building a railway • Benefits of building railways • Thank you

8. Vision 2040: Objectives • A first world economy; • Learned, well educated and well informed population; • Economic, scientific and technological super power; • Adequate military strength; • Living in harmony with the Environment; • *“Healthy food” secure (a healthy nation from balanced diet, focused primary health care and general peace of mind); • A peaceable, tranquil and progressive country in harmony with all neighbours and all nations in the Universe.

9. Requirements: Transport Infrastructure To achieve Vision 2040 transport infrastructure development will be one the key pillars. • Develop transport infrastructure well connected in the country and into the region for Kenya to be the preferred transport and logistics hub in the region • Assist neighbouring countries to connect their transport infrastructure to the Kenyan network; • Create and define in law “trunk” transport infrastructure corridors.

10. Requirements: Others • Abandon oil exploration and exploitation within Kenya; • *But, refine any all crude oil from the Region passing through Kenya; • Reduce to a minimum reliance on off-shore tourism and diaspora handouts; • *Nurture and develop local, corporate and individual (US$) billionaires within the shortest possible time; • Develop new purpose built cities; • Assist neighbouring countries to achieve first world economic status;

11. Transport infrastructure: correct utilisation • Road: • Small passenger volumes over short and medium distances • Parcels (smalls) over short distances • Undefined origin and destinations (the last mile) • Long distance freight • Airports: • Passengers over medium and long distances (≥ 800 km) • High valued parcels • Leisure • Defence • Water: • High volumes passengers over short distances such as ferries • Leisure (ocean cruises and inland waters leisure boats) • Fishing • Intercontinental high volume freight (containers, fluids and dry cargo) • Inland waters – leisure and bulk freight

12. Transport infrastructure: correct utilisation (cont.) • Pipeline: • Bulk fluids (water, petroleum products, natural gas) • Sewer • Power lines • Electricity • Fibre optic cables • Speech and data • Railway • High volume passengers over short, medium and long distances • High volume freight overland for short and long distances (including intercontinental transport)

13. FROM Typical high volume short distance rail passenger service; showing also multipurpose use of a railway corridor antiquated

14. TO Syokimau Railway Station Train on platform

15. TO

16. TO Syokimau Railway Station Park and ride facility

17. TO Syokimau Railway Station Park and ride facility

18. Imara Daima Railway Station under construction (60% complete)

19. Makadara Railway Station under construction (70% complete)

20. Developing Large Projects • Mindset about large infrastructure projects particularly for public transport • General bitterness over money being "eaten", cost overruns, and white elephants • Unnecessary public/media scrutiny benefiting auditors, NGOs, agitators and lawyers; discouraging developers, engineers and users; • Remember: these are teething problems all countries go through on the road to full development status

21. Infrastructure Projects “Eating” curve Cost of recovering the 8.5% is greater than cost of the whole project 100% 8.5% Residual “eating” level 0% 1960/70s 1980s 1990s 2000 2010

22. Vision 2040: Purpose-built Cities Lamu: • Deep water seaport for Post Panama-X vessels (petroleum oil tankers, edible oil tankers, container ships and general freight ships) Isiolo: • Oil refinery, petrochemical industries, products marketing and distribution centre • Transport and logistical hub for Northern Kenya, Ethiopia and South Sudan Homa Bay: • Free Port to serve the Great Lakes Region Nairobi : • Regional financial hub • Transport and logistical hub for the Great Lakes Region Lodwa/Turkana: • Bread basket for strategic food reserve – irrigated and natural commercial farming and livestock production; Agro industries; animal food products industries

23. Purpose built cities and Trunk transport Corridors (red) for Vision 2040

24. Transport corridors • Secure and designate transport corridors sufficient for all the anticipated transport elements to speed up development process; • Transport infrastructure development should not be left in the hands of counties; • Undertake robust studies to identify the most appropriate modes of transport to be promoted within a corridor

25. LAMU DEEP WATER SEAPORT • Crude and refined petroleum oil pipelines connects the Port to Isiolo. • All transport infrastructure elements provided between Lamu and Isiolo

26. Proposed Lamu Port: Location

27. Isiolo Crude Oil Refinery Capacity > 200,000 barrels per day; Crude and refined petroleum oil pipeline to Juba and Lamu; Refined petroleum oil pipeline to Addis Ababa and Nairobi; Transport infrastructure elements between Isiolo, Nairobi, Juba and Addis Ababa

28. Isiolo Petrochemical Industries Aim at 100% value addition on any crude oil passing through Kenyan Soil

29. Homa Bay Duty Free Port Homa Bay Duty Free Port strategically located to serve the Great Lakes Region

30. Typical Financial District proposed for Upper Hill Nairobi Provide easy access from Airport, ample supply of electricity, water and communication

31. Modern mechanised Farming for food security proposed for Turkana County. Note: Turkana Countyhas more arable land and fresh water than Israel!

32. Modern mechanised large scale livestock production proposed for Turkana County

33. Funding Vision 2040 projects Do not under-rate your Government’s capacity to mobilise funds when the need arises. Sources: • GoK budgets (60%): • Vision 2040 development levy – 40% • Taxation – 10% • Capital Markets 10% • GoK borrowing (27%): • Concessional loans = 15% • Commercial loans =10% (8% locally, 2% offshore) • String-less grants = 2% • Private investment = 8% (keep it very low – citizens have no control over private investors leading losses and delays to projects and poor quality of service delivery) • Miscellaneous = 5%

34. Engineering opportunities • Chinese Adage: In a country where engineers have small minds, their Government will think small; in a country where engineers have big minds, their Government will always find money from “somewhere” for big projects; • Vision 2030 was driven and owned by economists, political scientists, prophets, politicians and other “soft” scientists – result: dismal achievement so far; • Vision 2040 to be owned and driven by those engineers who have BIG MINDS. • China, South Korea, Japan, the US are seeking new homes for their large scale industries suitable for Vision 2030 objectives;

35. Appropriate transport: Case study – Nairobi - Thika Corridor for road and rail commuter services Nairobi – Thika super-highway • 10 lanes • 220+ metres corridor • Hypothetical capacity = 1,800 vehicles per hour per lane (beyond this, congestion would reduces rate of flow of vehicles) • Environmental pollution = high • Total delivery at both ends = 41,400 passengers per hour (discounting car-pooling and assuming 2.3 passengers per vehicle to take into account buses and mini-buses) • Cost per Km = US$ 7.92 million (excluding land acquisition, demolitions and relocation expenses

36. Appropriate transport: case study – Nairobi - Thika Corridor for road and rail commuter services Commuter Rail system • Existing dilapidated Nairobi – Ruiru line delivers 20,000 passengers within a span of four hour between Nairobi and Ruiru (operations are limited to morning and evening peak hours) • Corridor width = 30 metres • After modernisation: frequency of trains = one (1) train movement every three minutes in each direction, • Capacity per train: 1,800 passengers (each train has 10 coaches of capacity 180 passengers) • Hypothetical delivery: 72,000 per hour (20 trains reaching either destination per hour) • Estimated delivery: 50,400 per hour (assuming 70% operational efficiency • Cost of double track railway (Nairobi - Thika) per Km ≈ US$ 2.97 million

37. Summary of Comparisons

38. A case study: Mombasa – Nairobi freight transport corridor Road transport • Estimated freight from Mombasa Port for up-country in 2020 ≈ 25 million tonnes • Number of lanes required = 8 • Corridor width = 150+ metres • Hypothetical number of trucks required = 2,869 vehicles per day (assuming each vehicle carrying 35 tonnes of freight on average and assuming 70% operation efficiency) = 120 vehicles per hour • Average delivery speed = 21 Km/hr (i.e. 24 hours from Mombasa to Nairobi including disruptions at weighbridges and checkpoints) • Environmental pollution = high • Cost per Km = US$ 6.34 million (excluding land acquisition and relocation expenses

39. A case study: Mombasa – Nairobi freight transport Railway freight transport • Estimated freight from Mombasa Port for up-country in 2020 ≈ 25 million tonnes • Number of lanes required = single track • Corridor width = 30 metres (minimum = 20 metres) • Hypothetical number of trains per day = 19 (assuming each train carrying 4,000 tonnes of freight on average and assuming 90% operation efficiency) • Average delivery speed = 65 Km/hr (i.e. 8 hours Kilindini to Embakasi) • Environmental pollution = low • Cost of construction per Km = US$ 2.86 million (excluding land acquisition and relocation expenses

40. Summary of Comparisons *One (1) track loaded with 35 tonnes of freight leaving the Port every 30 seconds

41. 240 TEUs container train compared to a loaded truck with one (1) 40-foot container • Comparative costs for long distance delivery: • Truck = US$ 0.12 per tonne-km • Rail = US$ 0.065 per tonne-km • Cost of transport reduced on average by 46% • E.g. container MSA - KLA • Road = US$ 3,025 • Rail = US$ 1,788 • Savings = 41%

42. MSA – MLB/KSM SGR: Typical Engineering challenges

43. MSA – MLB/KSM SGR: Typical Engineering challenges

44. Kisumu Branch Line – steep descent and rough terrain

45. Kisumu Branch Line – a typical challenge

46. Kisumu Branch Line – gorge

47. Building a railway: Benefits Jobs creation • Direct jobs creation {at least 60 jobs per kilometre of track (Mombasa –Nairobi Railway will create 30,000 jobs with a dwell time of 5-years)} • Jobs creation from rapid industrialisation ≈ 10,000 (large quantities of local inputs such as steels, cement, aggregates, electricity transmission poles and cables, roofing materials, glass, plastics, rubber etc. all made locally will be required) • Jobs creation from service industry ≈ 3,000 (providers of foods, accommodation and leisure) • Jobs creation from developed skills ≈ 3,000 (self employment after the project by masons, carpenters, mechanics and electricians) Development of skills: For future use locally, regionally and globally

48. Operating a railway: Benefits Jobs creation Mombasa – Nairobi Railway • Direct employment ≈ 4,000 • Supply chain ≈ 2,000 • Service providers Reduced cost of transportation • Competitive tariffs Safer roads • Reduced accidents causing loss of life, injury and damage to property Pleasant environment • Reduced pollution

49. Operating a railway: Benefits (cont.) • Savings in foreign exchange: Less fuel requirement for transportation • Appreciation of property value along the corridor • *Decongestion of major cities: Living further from working place • Industrialisation along the railway corridor: Easy access and cheaper means of transportation • Annual GDP growth of at least 1%: Increasing volumes of regional trade

50. SUMMARY • The Aliens will soon be with us here. We must prepare to show them robust technology, failing which they will subject us to slavery, abuse and colonialism; • VISION 2040 is our salvation; • Engineering, science and technology is the route to that salvation; • Only engineers can deliver that salvation; • The aliens will only spare this country the agony of slavery, abuse and colonialism at the sight of our high speed, high capacity, reliable, cost effective long and short distance railway technology!