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SEMCOG 2040 Forecast

SEMCOG 2040 Forecast. Presentation to the Executive Committee February 24, 2012. Michigan Is Leading the Recovery. Source: Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics, UM. Wage and salary employment only. .

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SEMCOG 2040 Forecast

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  1. SEMCOG 2040 Forecast Presentation to the Executive Committee February 24, 2012

  2. Michigan Is Leading the Recovery Source: Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics, UM. Wage and salary employment only.

  3. Real GDP/Capita Growth Is Strong in Near TermAverage Annual Change, SE Michigan, 1990-2040 Note: 2005 dollars.

  4. Employment and Population Southeast Michigan, 1990-2040 2010 1990 2040 4,742,083 Population 2,786,082 Employment Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast (Draft)

  5. Average Annual Change of Population ComponentsSoutheast Michigan = = + + + + - - - - = = 1990-2000 2000-2010 2020-2040 2010-2020

  6. Race and Hispanic Origin Southeast Michigan, 2010 and 2040 2010 2040 White Black Asian, Multi-racial, AIAN, and Other Hispanic Source: Census 2010, SEMCOG 2040 Forecast

  7. Population Change by Age Southeast Michigan, 2010 and 2040 Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast

  8. We Must Grow Jobs in Knowledge-Based and Export-Oriented IndustriesJobs by Major Sector, SE Michigan, 1990-2040 2040 1990 2010 Knowledge-based, export-oriented services Health/Social services Government Retail Manufacturing Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast

  9. Total Employment, Baseline,Higher and Lower AlternativesSoutheast Michigan, 1990-2040 2040 1990 2010 2,940,935 2000 2,835,170 2,786,082 2,675,296 1990 2,478,460 2010 2,484,265 Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast (Draft)

  10. Regional Forecast Summary • The region is recovering from a decade-long deep recession. The recovery will be longer and slower than in the past. • Growth will be modest, from 2010 to 2040: • Employment up 12% (302,000), • Population up 1% (37,000), and • Households up 6% (110,000) • An aging population and lack of in-migration will • limit labor force in the long run, and • reconfigure services • Diversifying economy should continue by • developing knowledge-based and export-oriented industries, and • maintaining a strong presence in our key auto industry

  11. Draft 2040 Community Forecast

  12. More than 3,000 loss Loss, 501 to 3,000 Little change, 500 loss to 500 gain Gain, 501 to 3,000 More than 3,000 gain Short-term Population ChangeChange in Population, 2000-2020 2000-2010 2010-2020 Source: Census , SEMCOG 2040 Forecast

  13. More than 3,000 loss Loss, 501 to 3,000 Little change, 500 loss to 500 gain Gain, 501 to 3,000 More than 3,000 gain Long-term Population ChangeChange in Population, 2010-2040 Source: Census , SEMCOG 2040 Forecast

  14. More than 100 Loss Little Change, -100 to 300 Gain, 301 to 1,000 Large Gain, 1,000 to 3,000 More than 3,000 Gain Continued Household GrowthChange in Households, 2010-2040 Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast

  15. Job Gains Most EverywhereChange in Employment, 2010-2040 More than 100 loss Little Change, -100 to 100 Gain, 100 to 1,000 Large Gain, 1,000 to 3,000 More than 3,000 gain Confidential Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast

  16. Gain in Knowledge-Based Services JobsChange in Sector Employment, 2010-2040 More than 50 loss Little Change, -50 to 50 Gain, 51 to 500 Large Gain, 501 to 3,000 More than 3,000 gain Confidential Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast

  17. Gain in Private Education & Health CareChange in Sector Employment, 2010-2040 Little Change -10 to 50 Small Gain, 51 to 500 Moderate Gain, 501 to 2,000 Large Gain, 2,001 to 4,000 More than 4,000 gain Confidential Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast

  18. Gain in Jobs for Services to Households & FirmsChange in Sector Employment, 2010-2040 More than 50 loss Little Change, -50 to 50 Gain, 51 to 500 Large Gain, 501 to 2,000 More than 2,000 gain Confidential Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast

  19. Southeast Michigan Council of Governments

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