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Welcome to 2040

Welcome to 2040. So, a quick update on 2040. There has been no ‘world war’ India won the 2040 Eurovision Song Contest There has been no collapse of global economics and trade The 2040 summer Olympics hosted by Greenland There has been no natural or accidental global catastrophe

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Welcome to 2040

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  1. Welcome to 2040

  2. So, a quick update on 2040 • There has been no ‘world war’ • India won the 2040 Eurovision Song Contest • There has been no collapse of global economics and trade • The 2040 summer Olympics hosted by Greenland • There has been no natural or accidental global catastrophe • Top selling book: Harry Potter and the Mid-Life Crisis of Doom • There has been no global, uncontained epidemic • Cricket: Japan wins Ashes • People and governments have ultimately behaved in a rational manner

  3. Population increase slows down Population in billions • Population more than 2.4 billion greater in 2040 than in 2007 • The global distribution of population remains roughly constant but 60% will live in cities • Global population expected to stabilise at ~11 billion in 2200 • No shortage of potential travellers • No real change in the focus of destinations • No shortage of potential Hubs • More requirement for new airports • Median ‘150’ seat range goes from 480nm in 2006 to ~700nm in 2040 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Year Source: UN

  4. Aviation growth continues • World traffic growth continues – but growth is constrained • 2040 traffic is 450% of 2006 level • Congestion, congestion, congestion • Larger aircraft? • Increased security issues • Passenger scanning • More airport congestion • More ATC congestion 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040

  5. The centre of economic power has shifted S America SE Asia & China N America SE Asia & China Russia N America Central Asia Middle East Europe Africa Europe GDP in 2005 $36,400bn GDP in 2030 $71,600bn Source: World Bank

  6. Oil prices drive discoveries

  7. Aviation uses kerosene longer Higher dependency on energy dense fuels Aviation • Moved away from oil to substitute fuels: • Coal to coal gas • Waste products to methane • Natural gas into synthetic liquid fuel • Biofuels Shipping 2005 European ‘Car of the Year’ was a hybrid Car from Toyota Automotive Peak power • Move away from oil, as oil not the only viable energy source. Shift towards: • Gas (initially) • Nuclear • Coal • Fuel cells Industrial power Power generation Lower dependency

  8. Aviation is not a primary source of global warming, but it is growing Radiative forcing W/m2 • Aviation contributes about 2% of global carbon dioxide • Factor of ~1.9 to account for other emissions • Growth of aviation will result in CO2 grow unless action is taken • Voluntary Carbon Trading begins • Aviation became targets for CO2 tax • Drive for further improvements in system efficiency • Synthetic ‘drop-in’ fuel use rises 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 O3 0 CH4 -0.01 Contrails Cirrus NOx CO2 -0.02 Source; RCEP

  9. Six technologies that will have significant impact over next 30 years • Materials • Nanotechnology Computing Deep & Pervasive Genomics Robotics Bionics Energy conversion Source; Adapted and extended from CSIS

  10. Cost effective desk-top computing power reach human levels in 2015 100,000 MIPS equates to human brain power MIPS per $1000 at 1997 $ 100,000 10,000 1,000 100 10 1 Year 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 0.1 0.01 0.001 0.0001 0.00001 1.00E-06 1.00E-07 Red dots are data for individual calculating machines and computers 1.00E-08 1.00E-09 1.00E-10 1.00E-11 Source: Moravec

  11. Computing capability impacts all aspects of life in 2040 • Pervasive Computing: the incorporation of relatively low powered computing devices into all aspects of life • Examples include • Intelligent sensors to regulate light and heat in the home • A combination of pervasive computing with local actuation will allow • Component level health monitoring and damage limitation • Embedded control in, for example, adaptive wing surfaces • Adaptive automotive transmissions • Deep Computing:use of high power computers to process large amounts of information rapidly, allowing numerical resolution of complex problems • Today: • Model fluid flows numerically • Run computer simulations of complex plant in real time • Hold video conferences with a high quality three dimensional image in real time • The development of human levels of computing power

  12. Manufacturing and assembly robots Domestic vacuum cleaners and lawn mowers Sophisticated toys Honda’s ASIMO Sony’s AIBO Remotely operated underwater vehicles for offshore work 2040 Autonomous sensing, interpreting and decision making UAVs that decide for themselves to take a closer look at unexpected observed patterns Unmanned aircraft that select the best route, avoiding collision, and minimising damage in the event of a failure Self learning assembly plant that optimises performance Robotics will become a commercial proposition 2007

  13. Genomics - manipulation at the genetic level Short term Longer term • Tailored drugs • Biosensors • New cures based on gene therapy and tailored vaccines • Stem cell therapies • GM food • Deep sea fish farming • Enhanced agricultural processes to produce cost competitive biofuels • Bacteria to treat pollutants generated by burning fossil fuels • Commercial production of hydrogen from water, using genetically engineered algae Unlikely to be relevant to aviation Could impact aviation Source : ESRC

  14. Bionics technologies leads to ‘enhanced humans’ • Bionics is the seamless integration of man-made physical and mechanical structures with living organisms • Examples are • Implantation of adaptive drug delivery devices for more finely tuned treatment • Augmented reality, with more effective man-machine interfaces • Gloves for finer hand control of machines • Head up displays projected onto the retina • Displays linked to brain wave activity to avoid sensory overload • Embedded ‘Chip-phones’ • Embedded identity • Addition of solid state image sensors directly linked to the optic nerve to give night vision

  15. So, what is aviation like in 2040?Starting the trip • Plenty of potential customers all round the world with similar geographical distribution • All transactions are e-based • All travel under 500km is by sustainable land transport where geography permits • Majority of travel to airports is by sustainable land transport

  16. So, what is aviation like in 2040?The airport experience • Airport queues no longer acceptable • Airport transit time measured in minutes • Passengers ‘chipped’ for identity • ticketing tied to chip • security tied to chip • boarding card tied to chip • Full body ‘walk through’ scanning • Passenger and luggage

  17. So, what is aviation like in 2040?At the gate • Aircraft are still aircraft • Better turn round times • More airport ‘commonality’ • Little engine ground running – e-taxi • Majority of improvement comes from the engine • Novel concepts tailored to application • Aircraft evolve to more ‘blended’ designs • Better aerodynamics • Improved systems

  18. Technology - Evolution or Revolution?Cycles to Meet ACARE Targets 0.700 0.700 0.70 0.70 0.725 0.725 0.750 0.750 Propulsive Propulsive Efficiency Efficiency 0.775 0.775 0.65 0.65 Current HBR Engines (Specific Thrust) (Specific Thrust) lbf lbf 0.800 0.800 0.825 0.825 0.60 0.60 0.850 0.850 Approaching Approaching 0.875 0.875 Practical Limit Practical Limit 0.900 0.900 0.55 0.55 for Low NOx for Low NOx 0.925 0.925 Combustion Combustion 0.950 0.950 0.975 0.975 0.50 0.50 1.000 1.000 Specific Fuel Consumption lb/hr / Specific Fuel Consumption lb/hr / 0.4 0.4 Approaching Approaching 0.425 0.425 0.45 0.45 Theoretical Limit, i.e., Theoretical Limit, i.e., Open Rotor Propulsive Open Rotor Propulsive 0.450 0.450 Efficiency Efficiency 0.40 0.40 Approaching Approaching 0.475 0.475 Theoretical Limit, i.e., Theoretical Limit, i.e., 0.500 0.500 Stoichiometric Stoichiometric TET, TET, 0.525 0.525 0.35 0.35 Ultimate Component Ultimate Component 0.550 0.550 Efficiencies, 80+ OPR. Efficiencies, 80+ OPR. 0.575 0.575 Thermal (x Transfer) Thermal (x Transfer) 0.600 0.600 Efficiency (OPR and Efficiency (OPR and 0.30 0.30 0.625 0.625 h h TET, TET, ) ) 0.650 0.650 comp comp

  19. Advanced cycles – greater efficiency • Cooled Cooling Air • Increased turbine entry temperatures without increasing turbine cooling flow by reducing the temperature of the air cooling the blade Aero Intercooler Reduces temperature at entry to the HPCompressor • Increases engine power • Reducing compressor exit temperature • Increased overall engine pressure ratio • Greater power facilitates reduction in core size Pulse Pressure gain Combustor Increasing the pressure at the combustor by combusting the air in a fixed volume through pulsing and non return mechanisms • Increased overall pressure ratio • Significant gains in pressure have been achieved on rig tests that would improve the efficiency of future engines

  20. Open rotor potential • For lower thrust requirements although Conventional engines are the baseline, other concepts may be available: • Conventional: • 3-shaft and 2-shaft options embodying ‘2015’ level of technology are under design • Open Rotor: • Geared, 2-stage, counter rotating blades • Gas generator can be 2-shaft or 3-shaft design • Significant improvement in fuel burn of 25-30% better than today’s engine • Quieter that today’s engines • However • Earliest EIS 2017 • Considerable design complexity • Installation issues • Customer acceptance may be an issue

  21. So, what is aviation like in 2040?In the air • Pilots • Fewer • Enhanced to meld with aircraft • Backup pilot on ground • ‘Live’ aircraft flight monitoring via satellites • Significant reduction in human errors • Blackbox replaced with constant monitoring • Realtime 24/7 in-flight data exchange • Passengers continue to expect improved experience • Active noise control • Direct routes • Between airports • Around airports

  22. So, what is aviation like in 2040?Fuel • Fuels • Kerosene is the only option for civil aviation • Biofuel is not the solution • Competition with food • Competition for water • Biofuel only as a ‘mixer’ • Aviation requires a ‘drop-in’ solution • Synthetic fuels present the only long term solution • 50% SASOL approved in 1990s • Work ongoing to support 100% synthetic kerosene • Gas to liquid • Biomass to liquid

  23. So, what is aviation like in 2040?MRO • Today • EMC is dictated by the system business model • Fuel price is 10 times more important than EMC • Tomorrow • Life on wing gives way to overhaul for fuelburn • Upgrades incorporated at every overhaul • MRO becomes even more sophisticated • MRO through OEM production line • Fixed life overhaul • Delinking engine s/n from airline • Airlines buy thrust not engine • And PMAs? • Either PMAs absorbed into supply chain • Or PMAs not supported by business model

  24. Laser propulsion • Beamed energy Flight test of laser powered model aircraft Space tethers • Anti-matter • Anti-gravity But what about 2100?

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