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The Deterrence Hypothesis

The Deterrence Hypothesis. And Picking Pockets at the Pickpocket’s Hanging. The Aggregate Burden of Crime. $1,705,000,000 per year in the U.S. $4,118 per person. Crime and Rationality. Gary Becker (1968) argued that crime is rational.

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The Deterrence Hypothesis

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  1. The Deterrence Hypothesis And Picking Pockets at the Pickpocket’s Hanging

  2. The Aggregate Burden of Crime $1,705,000,000 per year in the U.S. $4,118 per person

  3. Crime and Rationality • Gary Becker (1968) argued that crime is rational. • Others followed suit—Block and Heineke (1975), Polinsky and Shavell (1999), Rubin, Dezhbakhsh, and Shephard (2002), … • This supports the Criminal Deterrence Hypothesis: • PunishmentCrime

  4. While it is true that on the current margin, some criminals seem to respond to punishment, • Is it appropriate to model all criminal behavior as rational? That is, how many of our criminals are rational? • Would punishment ever lead to a satisfactory reduction in crime? • What alternatives to punishment might have a larger effect?

  5. Marginal Cost / Benefit MC MB Number of Crimes Crimes*

  6. “I won’t get caught.” Marginal Cost / Benefit MB MC Crimes* Number of Crimes

  7. Anger dominates rationality Marginal Cost / Benefit MB Crimes* Number of Crimes

  8. Conditions for Rational Decisions Positive estimate of arrest and conviction Thought about the possibility of apprehension Some idea of the likely punishment Thought about the likely punishment at time of decision to commit crime

  9. Countervailing Effects • Perceived Invincibility • Alcohol / Drugs • Lack of Information • Rebellion and Thrill Seeking • Punishment as Right of Passage • Formal Punishment is Small Fraction of Cost to Criminal • Career loss, Relationship loss • Embarrassment • Cost of time

  10. Clearance Rates(% of known offenses resulting in an arrest) Murder and non-negligent manslaughter 67% Aggravated assault 58% Forcible rape 52% All violent crime 47%

  11. Felony Conviction Rates Drug Trafficking 73% Murder, Burglary, and Weapons Offenses 67% The lowest rate is for assault, which is 41%

  12. Problems with Past Approaches • Erlich (1975) estimated that 1 execution prevents 7-8 murders • Bowers and Pierce (1980) estimated that 1 execution causes 2-3 murders • Available Data • Are Aggregated • Lack Important Variables • Miss Unreported Crimes • Involve Spurious Correlation between Enforcement Measures and Crime Counts • Does more detection drive higher crime rates or do higher crime rates drive more detection? • Miss Location and Crime-Type Shifting • Results are not robust across time periods and locations

  13. Survey InstrumentGoing to the Source What type of crime were you arrested for? (Note: If you did not commit the crime that you were arrested for, please reply to each question based on your knowledge of those who do commit such crimes.) How much time did you spend planning and carrying out this incident? If you had a legal job when the crime was committed, how much were you earning? _____ per _____ (hour/year/etc.) In what year? ________ How much do you think you could be earning now if you weren’t involved in crime? _____ per _____ (hour/year/etc.) What was the last grade in school that you completed? When you committed this crime, how likely did you think it was that you would be caught? very likely d) I did not think I would be caught. somewhat likely e) I did not think about it. possible, but not likely When you committed the crime, did you know what the likely punishment would be if you were caught? I knew exactly what the punishment would be. I had a good idea. I had some idea. I had no idea, or I thought I knew but I was wrong. I didn’t think about it. Were the following items available, and if not, would they have prevented the crime? Available?Prevented? yes no yes no maybe drug rehabilitation father living with you evening/weekend sports programs awareness of punishment if caught awareness of likelihood of being caught legal employment death penalty for this crime Is there any other type of program, punishment, or detection method that would have prevented you from committing this crime? If the following items existed, would the crime have occurred without them? Existed?Caused? yes no yes no maybe drug use friends who were a bad influence financial needs Boredom  violence in TV/Movies you watched Is there anything else that might have caused this crime?

  14. ResultsCognizance of Risks & Punishments

  15. Why Increased Punishment Won’t Increase Awareness • Minor increases have accomplished little in the past • Major increases strike ethical and legal chords • Cruel and unusual punishment is prohibited by the 8th and 14th Amendments • Perceived Invincibility is Overarching Reason for Imperviousness

  16. Exposures and Subjective Influences

  17. Alternative Approaches to Deterrence • Education • Increases Opportunity Cost of Crime • Provides Alternative Income Sources • Takes People Off the Streets • Can Convey Morals / Ethics • Can Teach Dispute Resolution Techniques and How to Deal with Peaked Emotions • Can Teach Repercussions of Drugs and Crime • Community Programs • Drug Rehabilitation • Innovative Drug Policy • Concentrate on the Economy, which has larger effect on crime

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