Kyoto and Beyond

1. Kyoto and Beyond Report on Copenhagen June, 2010 www.isciences.com

2. Introduction Kyoto and Beyond is a series of presentations that provide information concerning the evolving international climate treaty process that began with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Report on Copenhagen is a summary of events that transpired in Dec 2009 at the UNFCCC Conference of the Parties (COP15),including the drafting of the Copenhagen Accord and subsequent public discourse. Click here to view entire series

3. Contents 1 The Kyoto Protocol COP15 and the Copenhagen Accord 2 Reactions to COP15 3 4 Steps toward COP16 5 2010 Timeline

4. The Kyoto Protocol The convocation of nations in Copenhagen to address a future climate agreement is the 15th in a series of meetings resulting from the UNFCCC The first formal international climate agreement requiring limits to fossil fuel emissions is the Kyoto Protocol which is currently in force.

5. Kyoto Protocol Background The Protocol is a multilateral agreement aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions.Developed countries were assigned limits on emissions relative to 1990, and targets vary by nation. The Protocol was signed by 84 countries and ratified by nearly all who signed. The US did not ratify. Countries who ratified are now bound by Protocol requirements. The Protocol, part of the UNFCCC, has been in force since 2005. The first commitment period ends 2012 and no binding framework has been established post-2012. Four Conference of the Parties have taken placesince the Protocol entered into force. Each COP has been accompanied by a CMP, a meeting specific to the Protocol.

6. Kyoto Protocol Emissions Updates Developed countries were assigned limits on emissions relative to 1990 levels and targets vary by nation. This table from UNFCCC data shows progress made in emissions reductions as of 2009. Image credit: UNFCCC

7. Kyoto Protocol Emissions Updates The Climate Scorecard below shows an interpretation of the performance of key nations (known as the G8) with respect to meeting the terms of the Protocol. For specific information on each country, click on the country flags Source: World Wildlife Foundation/Allianz http://www.worldwildlife.org/climate/policy/g8-scorecard.html

8. COP15: Overview The most recent Conference of the Parties was COP15 in Copenhagen, Denmark Dec 7-18, 2009. COP15 was particularly significant due to an increasing international push for new binding climate change legislature. The focus of COP15 was on attempting to draft new legislation and deciding if goals set by the Kyoto Protocol should continue post-2012. Image credit: Wikimedia Commons Time was also spent improving the clean development mechanism and drafting decisions on adaptation, technology, and capacity building. Click here to view the schedule of COP15

9. COP15: Details

10. The Copenhagen Accord It became apparent that the COP15 process was floundering, and during the last days of COP15 the Copenhagen Accord evolved. The Copenhagen Accord was the result of an independent action of the U.S., China, Brazil, India, and South Africa. The meeting, as well as the drafting of the accord, were not an official part of COP15. The process was controversial due to the limited international involvement. Image credit: Wikimedia Commons Some countries that were excluded from the process renounced the Accord. These include Venezuela, Bolivia, Cuba, and Nicaragua.

11. A B C Contents of the Copenhagen Accord NOTE: No specific emissions reductions have been set and the Accord is not legally binding. Sets a goal limiting the increase in Earth’s average temperature to 2 degrees Celsius from pre-industrial levels; process yet to be established. States that Annex I countries of the Protocol should further strengthen their efforts to meet targets set by the Protocol. Funding will be provided to developing countries for lowering emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, and for adaptation and technology development and transfer. D Copenhagen Green Climate Fund will be the operator of finances to help developing countries conduct activities related to mitigation. Click here to view the entire Copenhagen Accord

12. Outcome COP15 did not achieve its objective which was to establish an agreement subsequent to the Kyoto Protocol. However, on the last day, December 18th, it did acknowledge the Accord as a means to move the process forward. Image credit: Wikimedia Commons The Copenhagen Accord is not legally binding, but allows for nations to submit voluntary commitments. While the Accord initially raised controversy, there has been increasing acceptance. As of January 2010, 124 countries were engaged in some form of voluntary commitment. The Accord is currently viewed as a declaration that expresses an intent to act on climate change.

13. Supportive Reactions to COP15 “We have made a start. I believe that what we need to follow up on quickly is ensuring a legally binding outcome.” -Gordon Brown, UK Prime Minister “We’ve come a long way but we have much further to go.” -Barack Obama, US President “Given where we started and the expectations for this conference, anything less than a legally binding and agreed outcome falls far short of the mark. On the other hand… perhaps the bar was set too high and the fact that there’s now a deal… perhaps gives us something to hang our hat on.” -John Ahse, Chair of Kyoto Protocol Talks “The meeting has had a positive result, everyone should be happy. After negotiations both sides have managed to preserve their bottom line. For the Chinese this was our sovereignty and our national interest.” -Xie Zhenhua, Head of China’s Delegation “The leaders of a small number of key countries…worked to identify a politically feasible path forward. Their roadmap, despite its flaws, offers a possible foundation for progress…Unlike Kyoto, this accord establishes a framework for involving key, rapidly growing developing countries” -Robert Stavins, Professor at the Harvard Kennedy School “The Copenhagen Accord is no substitute for a real-deal treaty, but world leaders became personally acquainted with the tough issues, directly and seriously negotiating for the first time…” -Kelly Sims Gallagher, Professor of Energy and Environmental Policy at The Fletcher School

14. Unsupportive Reactions to COP 15 “Anything above 1.5 Degrees, the Maldives and many small islands and low-lying islands would vanish. It is for this reason that we tried very hard during the course of the last two days to have 1.5 degrees in the document. I am so sorry that this was blatantly obstructed by big-emitting countries.” - Mohamed Nasheed, Maldives’ President “It’s very disappointing, I would say, but it is not a failure…We have a big job ahead to avoid climate change through effective emissions reduction targets and this was not done here.” -Sergio Serra, Brazil’s Climate Change Ambassador “It looks like we are being offered 30 pieces of silver to betray our people and our future.” -Ian Fry, Tuvalu’s Lead Negotiator “I will not hide my disappointment regarding the non-binding nature of the agreement here. In that respect the document falls far short of our expectations” -Jose Manuel Barroso, EU Commission President “Copenhagen has been an abject failure. Justice has not been done. By delaying action, rich countries have condemned millions of the world’s poorest people to hunger, suffering and loss of life as climate change accelerates. The blame for this disastrous outcome is squarely on the developed nations.” - Nnimmo Bassey, Friends of the Earth International “The draft text asks Africa to sign a suicide pact, an incineration pact in order to maintain the economic dominance of a few countries” -Lumumba Stanislaus Di-Aping, Head of G-77 Group Click here to view other reactions

15. COP15: Limited Progress The general consensus of attending parties was that COP15 was unsuccessful. In the coming months, countries will work towards finding an agreement on new binding legislation. Image credit: Wikimedia Commons Many feel it will be necessary to provide more detail in the Accord to increase transparency to rebuild trust. There is talk of creating a global climate fund to service developing nations. This may create balance between the developed and developing nations.

16. Steps Toward COP16 November 29 – December 10, 2010 in Cancun, Mexico Further talks necessary before COP 16 in order to reach a legislative agreement. Forums and Talks Emissions pledges not large enough. Need new program to strengthen pledges. Strengthening Emissions Pledges Click stepped text for further details on each step. Execute progress tracking systems for developed countries. Create for developing countries. Progress Tracking System Details on finance, forests, adaptation, technology. Improving Details of the Accord

17. 2010 Timeline Key Date Set Proposed Date 9th Meeting of the Enforcement Branch of the Compliance Committee Second International Conference on Climate Change Decoding the Copenhagen Accord Event on Capitol Hill Bonn Climate Change Talks Bonn Climate Change Talks – Second Round World Energy Congress in Montreal January | February | March | April | May | June | July | August | September | October | November | December 20th Meeting of the Joint Implementation Supervisory Committee Speech by Yvo de Boer at Public Hearing on Climate Change The World’s People’s Conference on Climate Change in Bolivia Address by Yvo de Boer at Petersberg Climate Dialogue Mexico’s Proposed Additional Climate Change Meeting G20 Climate Meetings in Seoul COP16 in Cancun, Mexico Click on events for further information and supporting documents

18. Concluding Statement Article 2 of the UNFCCC calls for the stabilization of atmospheric GHG concentrations at levels that “prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.” The UNFCCC/Kyoto/Copenhagen process continues as nations attempt to meet this objective. We plan to provide updates and links to important documents when COP16 and other notable events occur.

19. References Ahmed, Imad. "What Happened at Copenhagen?" Graduate Professional School of International Affairs - The Fletcher School at Tufts University. 7 Jan. 2010. Web. http://fletcher.tufts.edu/news/2010/01/opeds/Ahmed-Jan07.shtml Baste, Ivar A. "Joint Implementation Supervisory Committee Publishes Report of 20th Meeting - Climate-L.org." Climate-L.org - Daily News. 24 Feb. 2010. Web. http://climate-l.org/2010/02/25/joint-implementation-supervisory-committee-publishes-report-of-20th-meeting/ "Bolivia Climate Change Conference and the Rights of Mother Earth." Ecowalkthetalk.com. 28 Apr. 2010. Web. http://www.ecowalkthetalk.com/blog/2010/04/28/bolivia-climate-change-conference-and-the-rights-of-mother-earth/ "Bonn Climate Change Talks." International Institute for Sustainable Development - Reporting Services (IISD RS) - "Linkages" - A Multimedia Resource for Environment and Development Negotiations. Web. http://www.iisd.ca/climate/ccwg9/ "Bonn Climate Change Talks." United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Web. http://unfccc.int/2860.php "Bonn Climate Change Talks Conclude: More Optimism, but Still ‘unbalanced’." United Nations Non-governmental Liaison Service. 16 June 2010. Web. http://www.un-ngls.org/spip.php?article2523 Climate Change Conference 2010." Climate Change. University of Queensland. Web. http://on-climate.com/conference-2010/ "End of COP15: Our Work Begins Now." Cascade Climate Network. Web. http://cascadeclimate.org/cop15/index.php/2009/12/20/end-of-cop15-our-work-begins-now/ G20 Seoul Summit. Web. http://www.seoulsummit.kr/ "G8 Climate Scorecards." World Wildlife Fund. Web. http://www.worldwildlife.org/climate/policy/G8-climate-scorecards.html "GHG Data from UNFCCC." United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Web. http://unfccc.int/ghg_data/ghg_data_unfccc/items/4146.php "Hill Event Analyzes Copenhagen Accord and the Future of Climate Negotiations." The German Marshall Fund of the United States. 25 Jan. 2010. Web. http://bit.ly/bAoXOa Morales, Alex. "Mexico Proposes Two Additional Climate Change Meetings in 2010." Bloomberg.com. 12 Feb. 2010. Web. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601130&sid=ariJgCukCteI Morgan, Jennifer. "From Angst to Action: Moving Forward After Copenhagen | World Resources Institute." World Resources Institute | Global Warming, Climate Change, Ecosystems, Sustainable Markets, Good Governance & the Environment. 7 Apr. 2010. Web. 22 May 2010. http://www.wri.org/stories/2010/04/angst-action-moving-forward-after-copenhagen?utm_campaign=wri-digest&utm_medium=email&utm_source=wridigest-2010-04&utm_content=hyperlink&utm_term=FromAngstToAction Stavins, Robert. "Opportunities and Ironies: Climate Policy in Tokyo, Seoul, Brussels, and Washington."Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. Harvard University, 21 Mar. 2010. Web. http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/analysis/stavins/?tag=cop-16 Vidal, John. "Bolivia Climate Change Talks to Give Poor a Voice." The Guardian. Guardian News, 18 Apr. 2010. Web. http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/apr/18/bolivia-climate-change-talks-cochabamba "What Happened at COP15 in Copenhagen?" GHG Accounting. Web. http://ghgaccounting.ca/?p=282